Northern Tape

Liquidity, leverage and on-chain, cross-checked. Calls logged and scored in public. Not advice.

[Northern Tape @NorthernTape]

The whole idea, in one chart.

My rules-based model sat in cash through the 2022 bear market, from about January 2022 to October 2023. BTC fell about 67% in that stretch. The model's worst drop was about half that.

Backtest from 2022, 0% fees, tuned on that history. Live it's slightly behind BTC right now, and I score it here every week.

[Northern Tape @NorthernTape]

Sunday scorecard. My model is behind BTC since going live in Aug, and not by a little.

It got in front briefly in late Sep, leaning hard into SOL. Then SOL gave it all back.

My calls this week: the $84k breakout didn't stick. The long flush under $80k did show up, Saturday.

Still fully in. A confirmed BTC downtrend on daily closes sends it to cash, a wick doesn't.

[Northern Tape @NorthernTape]

@jvisserlabs Funds degrossed in equities. Crypto perps haven't, OI's still climbing with longs paying funding. Bottom calls feel early to me until that clears.

[Northern Tape @NorthernTape]

@CoinMarketCap Meanwhile about $5B in stablecoins got redeemed this month. Mints turning back up is what'd make me believe it.

[Northern Tape @NorthernTape]

@qiaohailong @CoinMarketCap Funding's still positive, so longs look like the crowded side to me. Saturday already flushed a chunk of them though, so I wouldn't bet the house on it.

[Northern Tape @NorthernTape]

@AxelAdlerJr FOMC Wednesday should force it. Just hoping it's not both directions in one candle 😅

[Northern Tape @NorthernTape]

About $5B in stablecoins got redeemed since early Oct. Open interest went the other way.

So the bounces lately run on borrowed money, not new cash. Saturday's wick is what that looks like.

Fresh mints with OI cooling would fix it. My model's still fully in for now. It only steps aside on a confirmed downtrend.

[Northern Tape @NorthernTape]

@velo_xyz Brutal for longs. OI still rose through it though, so somebody's leaning short into the hole. That's fuel if $80k comes back.

[Northern Tape @NorthernTape]

Longs got wiped on the drop under $80k. Open interest went up anyway.

So someone replaced them, and with funding back near zero that's probably shorts chasing the break. Reclaim $80k with OI falling and they're the fuel. Stay under with OI still climbing and newer buyers' ~$76k is the magnet.

My model only reads daily closes, and it's still fully in.

[Northern Tape @NorthernTape]

@Darkfost_Coc @cryptoquant_com Old hands are fine. The pressure point is newer buyers, cost basis around $76k, not far under price. If that holds while LTH supply keeps climbing, pretty constructive mix.

[Northern Tape @NorthernTape]

@CoinMarketCap 5/10. Price went nowhere, leverage didn't. Next week gets to settle that.

[Northern Tape @NorthernTape]

@AxelAdlerJr Agreed. Tighter daily ranges with some OI coming off would make me a lot more comfortable.

[Northern Tape @NorthernTape]

The cushion under BTC is getting thin.

What newer buyers paid on average has climbed to ~$76k while price drifted lower. Price now sits only about 7% above it, less than half the gap we had in early Oct.

And longs are still paying to stay long into it. If it holds there while leverage cools, that's a reset. Daily closes under it are usually where dips stop being dips.

My model's still fully in. One wick won't move it, a confirmed downtrend would.

[Northern Tape @NorthernTape]

Thursday's ETF exit felt like a big deal. My model shrugged.

It doesn't move on one bad day. It waits for a confirmed BTC downtrend. The last one started Oct 2025, and it sat in cash about ten months while BTC more than halved. That's the flat green line.

Still fully in today. Backtest from 2025, 0% fees, tuned on that history. Live since Sep it's a hair behind BTC.

[Northern Tape @NorthernTape]

@CoinMarketCap I'd watch perps more than Nasdaq here. leverage kept stacking all week, so if 80k goes it's probably longs getting forced out, not just AI fear

[Northern Tape @NorthernTape]

@glassnode @FasanaraDigital any sign it's rotating back? btc perp OI climbed all week while price went nowhere. feels more like hedging than the gamblers coming home

[Northern Tape @NorthernTape]

@Darkfost_Coc @cryptoquant_com custody reshuffle or real selling, that's the whole question. no jump in exchange inflows by tomorrow and I'd call it wallet housekeeping

[Northern Tape @NorthernTape]

@cryptoquant_com @cryptovizart the long climb back is the part "just hold" skips. my rules-based model sat in cash most of 2022 (backtest) mainly to dodge that. still fully risk-on today tho, so it's not buying the bear read yet