Thank you @CH_MENAP for the invitation to „Yemen in crisis: An end in sight?“ delighted to have been part of this esteemed event.
Below a thread with my concise opinion on the prolonged war beyond the battlefield & the bumpy transitional phase to peace.
To watch link 👇🏽
The Strength of Iran's Retaliation Is overwhelming the Entire Middle East
Iran has been relentlessly attacking various American bases across the Middle East and is escalating its strikes to include airports in those countries. Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates are facing continuous bombardment from Iranian forces, who appear to show no fear of any potential retaliation.
Just this morning, Iran already launched hundreds of missiles against Israel and Gulf countries, yet those nations still seem hesitant to retaliate, intimidated by the sheer force and scale of Iran's attacks.
Barrages of missiles have struck Israel multiple times, completely overwhelming air defenses on this night..
The Iranian regime appears to have prepared thoroughly for the coalition's attacks, by decentralizing its command structures and with innovative tactics for missile launches.
They are fighting for their very survival, which has produced a response far more intense than the United States and Israel anticipated.
The problems posed by the intensity of Iran's attacks are twofold:
1. The coalition has so far been unable to neutralize or significantly degrade Iran's missile launch capabilities.
2. At the current rate, interceptor stocks that previously would have lasted 15–20 days may now be depleted in just 10 days.
This is a serious issue, as it could force the United States into signing a ceasefire while bearing immense political damage from the conflict.
Why does the current scenario cause so much concern?
Because this type of war, intense aerial missile attrition, is precisely where the US and Israel hold a traditional advantage.
However, if the conflict escalates to the naval domain, where the US currently has only one carrier strike group in the region, the environment could become highly unfavorable.
Today, all of Israel's submarines have sortied. It is unclear whether they headed to a protected location or are transiting the Suez Canal to engage Iran.
Also today, an Iranian frigate was damaged in port by what appears to have been a maritime missile or a drone-launched strike.
This seems to mark the opening of the naval phase of the war that we are likely to witness in the coming days
@vonderleyen Which developments? The US/Israel aggression? The massacres of dozens of civilians? The risk of Iran retaliating?
Invoking nuclear safety while endorsing policies that endanger millions is not leadership: it's escalation. May EU citizens see what is being signed off in their name
Within hours of Oman's Foreign Minister saying "Iran agreed to zero enriched uranium stockpiling", Israel immediately bombs Tehran & the US promptly joins
This can only mean it was NEVER about nuclear weapons & the US president is either compromised by Netanyahu or is using war to shape the midterm elections!
Can an AI ethos built on control and social harmony out-innovate the West's model of chaotic creation? The Gulf is betting yes. My deep dive into the region's precarious tech experiment. "MENA's Grand AI Experiment: Coding the Future on Ancient Ground" https://t.co/aqmjaBYuxt on
Everyone’s watching #SiliconValley build #AI. I went to Rome to watch #Italy govern it. My forecast below on how a single regulatory move turned #AIethics into #geopolitical#power & how Italy‘s “Garante Gambit” is becoming the new form of #sovereignty 💡 https://t.co/i7qFxp67IH
My quiet was deliberate. A strategic recalibration to deepen my expertise in AI, ethics, cybersecurity, data protection & next-gen governance, choosing long-term relevance as AI reshapes the world & contributing to lifting the Arab world from the ground up https://t.co/cxKAfDPb7Y
All states have a duty under international law to act to stop genocide. Yemen did so by blocking shipping to the offending regime. The US is now bombing them for daring to interfere with the US-supported genocide in Gaza. There is your “rules-based order.”
The #Houthis have been desperately waiting to engage with "America & Israel" for 20 years. Since Oct 7, they recruited 45K fighters for the "battle of promised conquest & holy Jihad.”
Today the US & UK made their dream come true.
#Yemen#RedSea
Was just on @BBCWorld and repeating point here. If you think Houthis will back down, you obviously haven't been paying attention. Limited strikes or not, this will further galvanize, radicalize, and bolster recruitment drive. Watch for local marchs/reactions in #Yemen tomorrow.
3] Today’s western attack is a recognition of international mismanagement of war & peace in Yemen, particularly imposing the Stockholm Agreement in 2018 despite the military advantage of coalition-backed forces, preventing the recapture of Hodeida & keeping it under the Houthis.
6] An attack on the Houthis by foreign countries is what the rebels hope for in a bid to further rally public support, instrumentalise indisputable pro-Palestinian and anti-foreign intervention sentiments for their political ends. It can have severe repercussions internally.
The US and the UK together with 10 countries issued a joint statement condemning Houthi attacks disrupting global maritime trade, peace and security, and threatening the freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, reaffirming intent to take military action, if undeterred [THREAD]
the "antisemitism on campus" moral panic is successfully folding liberals into reactionary politics of the CRT/gender studies bans and the broader project to smash higher education
The women’s movement in #Yemen has been calling and advocating for a comprehensive and inclusive peace process in Yemen. I am glad to see a strategic inclusive process developing inside and outside Yemen led by @OSE_Yemen with localized consultations that bring the lens of the local community and diverts from the elite approach.
The consultations with the Yemeni women from all governorates and diverse political representation in Yemen included marginalized groups, people with special needs and survivors of this ugly war. We aspire this will shape the framework for peace with a Yemeni owned and led process. To prevent cycles of violence we must ensure just and comprehensive solutions.
Photo from our participation in Aden 12/12/2023
My family is still under the rubble, my father worked for the @ICRC_ilot for 20 years and still this was not enough to answer our calls for help - my mother, father, Two sisters, and four nephews and one niece are still under the rubble and the ceasefire ends tom.