empty_cup

#ibreakforbirders

opinions expressed, not financial advice

[empty_cup @B2Balzer]

Macro Monday chat with @TraderBillyAU, @deerpointmacro @DannyDayan5 & @EconstratPB

https://t.co/RTeri8iUxp

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@tmaxftw It is comical

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@americana2121 @iminamtg

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@GAndersonTrades @colin_gladman @TheBronxViking Inclusion into nas100 after 15 days

Ima look for dump off initial pump

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@seer_xyz @GAndersonTrades No.
Get back above 114 then ok

JMO

[empty_cup @B2Balzer]

@Rebecca98869736 Meh. Overblown concern that undermines residual liquidity from fed RMO overshoot and is dismissive of the expiditious inclusion rate which suggest the contrary to your argument

[empty_cup @B2Balzer]

Will cost push or demand pull win out for USA ?
I think the fate of other nations is already sealed 🇪🇸

[Alicia Gerardo @TheEconRebel]

The global supply chain index slowed in May but remains elevated. With high energy costs, supply chain disruptions, and increasing manufacturing activity in the US, it doesn't seem beyond the realm of possibility that inflation will rebound back to pandemic-era price pressure. 📈

[empty_cup @B2Balzer]

@TheEconRebel Will Cost push or demand pull win out ?

[empty_cup @B2Balzer]

@BowTiedLobster No excuse needed
Just patience
Same as hormouz
Let the leverage take its course

[Deer Point Macro @deerpointmacro]

Fed remains fundamentally dovish: it rarely hikes rates until the labor market tightens enough to push unemployment below its long-run estimate.

Inflation alone often isn’t enough the employment mandate wins. Only a sharp drop in the u-rate (e.g. ≤4%) would likely force their hand, even under a more dovish chair.

[empty_cup @B2Balzer]

@deerpointmacro
A great listen

[empty_cup @B2Balzer]

Learn why despite potential geopolitical outfall you do not bet against American exceptionalism when you examine the facts.
USA over EU, Brazil over Spain, stop 🛑 the bias listen and study

[Phil Rosen @philrosenn]

The Iran conflict has reshaped the macro outlook and the winning trades have more upside than ever before.

I sat down with @ericwallerstein to unpack the geopolitical backdrop for investors and discuss specific trade ideas across the US and Europe.

Eric has worked at the Fed and in the White House with some of the best thinkers and strategists in the world.

This is a must-listen conversation for every investor.

TIMESTAMPS:

0:00 - Kevin Warsh's Fed regime
1:08 - Where rates go from here
3:46 - US dollar bull case
5:04 - US banks trade
8:19 - NATO breakup thesis
12:01 - Steelman case for Europe
13:28 - Poland, Norway, Sweden trade
15:52 - The 2 Europes trade
20:50 - US exceptionalism and Iran
31:56 - Working with Fed Governor Miran

[empty_cup @B2Balzer]

@deerpointmacro Nothing like jawboning because USA is in the unique position to wait and see
Bessent leads warsh follows.
Pretty darn parallel to the admins economic/geopolitical warfare approach if you think about it

Jujitsu leverage just waiting for tap outs

[empty_cup @B2Balzer]

@deerpointmacro Lack of action is def gonna be the path forward. I don’t think they wanna make a hike mistake and can afford to wait in case they have to pivot.

[empty_cup @B2Balzer]

@GoodTexture That same level of 518 is reflected on the qaurterly chart

Perhaps June ended abruptly ..?

Or it still has much to prove and get back above that level

Hyperliquid and AI is definitely attracting speculators from crypto as I understand it

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@EYECANTFAIL Pear shaped rock

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@EYECANTFAIL

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@seer_xyz But I do applaud the callout

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@seer_xyz I mean he does say ponzi leaches ….

Hate the game not the player

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@IronCondorWheel Darn I can’t hear shit

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@SoundDobad @HunterBiden

[empty_cup @B2Balzer]

@Norseman1 Bullish