BCHalk Talk w/ 4 time Best Dressed recipient & consumer guru @AdamRy_n@workweekinc State of the Consumer feat. Adam Ryan from Workweek https://t.co/WOPOLcxlwU via @YouTube
Tariff discussions have sped up the market sell-off, not sparked it. A weakening consumer, rising interest rates, and an overstretched SPX valuation—these levels are justified. If you’re only now adjusting your 2025 SPX forecast downward, you’re part of the issue. #BCHbetter@briangbelski
Building a $200M project for a developer/management company means $40M in invested capital, of which $4M from developer itself and $36M from investors & $160M from the bank. Developer charges 10% GC fee during 2 year development ($20M). Once built and time to lease, developer becomes manager and charges 2% annually ($4M). After full occupancy, investors get first 6% yield after fees, then 80/20 to developer after that. Any proceeds from eventual sale 80/20 to developer as well. So, 8 year time-line start to finish...developer puts in $4M, sells for $240 to REIT... that must deploy capital. Developer/Manager walks away with $76M. Developer wins, investors lose.
2AM thoughts....
Unpopular Tax Reform -
The US Debt is currently at around $36T with no clear solution in sight. Any business or household in this situation would file for bankruptcy, but a US default would be worse than continuing to print money. How do we develop a plan short, mid & long term to chop away at this debt to get control over inflation, interest rates, the value of the USD, etc.?
The 2AM Act -
1) US Treasury Bonds | Longer Duration = Tax Free
The bond duration multiplied by 2 would be the percentage of that bond that is completely tax free.
Incentivizes long term US investment, and pushes longer dated interest rates lower.
Flattens the yield curve, allowing for more control by the Fed in times of high or low inflation.
Creates more control of corrupt municipal bond supply, forcing local governments to issue short duration debt and refinance every 3-5 years. Allowing for a truer rating of municipal bonds.
2) Long Term Capital Gains
Increase By 15%
3) Remove Cost Basis Step Up
Gains would be realized at death, gift or sale.
4) Estate Tax Limit & Reform
Let the Tax Cuts & Job Act limit expire, thus cutting the limit in half.
Ways to increase your “Gift Tax” limit -
Extra $20M Tax Free - If placed in a 20 Year US Treasury Bond and held to duration.
Extra $20M Tax Free - If used to start a business in a specific industry.
That industry is decided by the US Government each year, depending on infrastructure needs and employment shortages.
Heavily audited annually, using AI.
@elonmusk@realDonaldTrump #USD #inflation #debt