Brian

Crypto and stocks

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

👇

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

For those who talk about the maturity wall (nonsense) and think losing the long term bond market will throw the fiscal situation off the cliff to unsustainable. Let's do some math

Two choices

1) Keep Fed funds here and cause long end bonds to increase in yield by 50bp

2) Hike fed funds by 50bp to make sure long end bond yields don't change.

So bills refinance at 6TN ish per year and coupons refinance at 2.5TN per year of which less than 500bn are long duration

Case 1) interest costs rise by 500*.005=2.5BN

Case 2) interest rate costs rise by 6000*.005=30BN

Big takeaway is both are tiny numbers

Smaller takeaway is if policymaker want to kill inflation AND know some rate needs to go up fiscal and admin should be much more comfortable with long rates going up

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Watch Live: Hegseth Declares 'Victory' As Fragile Iran Ceasefire Hailed Internationally https://t.co/HYw3xECIVa

[Brian @BD11871]

@ShortSeller Would love to add some in the mid 50s

[Brian @BD11871]

@ShortSeller Like it better than Corvus here?

[Brian @BD11871]

@ShortSeller No dip

[Brian @BD11871]

@roberts_frank @TrumpDailyPosts Basically trump looking out for his real estate and banking buddies. What’s new

[Brian @BD11871]

@roberts_frank @TrumpDailyPosts lol. Who cares at this point. Pro and cons to both sides. Won’t fix the housing market regardless

[Brian @BD11871]

@dampedspring How do you like iwm here? Good short to go with qqq?

[Brian @BD11871]

@azurafutures I can see smoke and smell it down here in Jersey.

[Brian @BD11871]

@azurafutures Happy Birthday 🎉

[Brian @BD11871]

@DsrPrivate I agree just giving you a hard time

[Brian @BD11871]

@DsrPrivate Thought you didn’t believe in seasonality

[Brian @BD11871]

@DsrPrivate Seems like a good spot to short nvidia on that huge gamma squeeze. Looking to get out of big 6 trade on a pullback? Seems like 4300 Spx is more likely towards end of June.

[Brian @BD11871]

@azurafutures That would mean spx breaks out and hits 4300 soon. QQQ could easily tag 350. No clear catalyst for downside except for being very overbought. Debt ceiling looks like it might be resolved which would further ignite rally.

[Brian @BD11871]

@azurafutures You ditch your puts?

[Brian @BD11871]

@DsrPrivate They didn’t mention ai

[Brian @BD11871]

@azurafutures Don’t think it holds?

[Brian @BD11871]

@azurafutures Tough call on this one. UPS earnings has me wary. Amazon employs a lot on their retail side. Good long term hold regardless.

[Brian @BD11871]

@DsrPrivate Fed predicting mild recession later this year. No big deal?