Baseline Drive Fantasy

Your sharpest friend who's annoyingly right about football. Nightly fantasy boards: NFL · NBA · MLB. The 2026 Draft Guide is out now ↓

[Baseline Drive Fantasy @BDriveFantasy]

Our whole QB philosophy is two lines: The position is free. The picks aren't. Which QBs to take, in which round, at which price — it's all in the NFL 2026 Draft Guide. $20 once. → https://t.co/Tr6Abk3s8K

[Baseline Drive Fantasy @BDriveFantasy]

@domainfantasy ngl this is a tale of two drafts. the RB room is cooked, cook and hampton are 27th and 83rd on my board and those were your first two picks 💀
but odunze at 60, BTJ at 61, and tre tucker in the 14TH?? that's free money, tucker is 64th for me
the mid rounds carried. B-

[Baseline Drive Fantasy @BDriveFantasy]

Joe Burrow has finished a full season once in three years. The full one was a monster: 21.9 a game, 43 TDs.

Do you think he'll keep it up?

We rank the whole resume: 103rd. 2.2 projected carries a game means no floor when it wobbles. Round 4 is someone else's gamble 😬

[Baseline Drive Fantasy @BDriveFantasy]

@EricNMoody bro no 😭 there are THREE grown men ahead of him (conner, allgeier, benson). rookie backs in that spot get like 41% of the carries, not 60. RB9 is paying 2027 prices in 2026. love the player, not my RB1

[Baseline Drive Fantasy @BDriveFantasy]

@SleeperNFL @SleeperCowboys @lynziekate @SleeperChiefsKC @JacobBarzilla @SleeperGiants @SleeperSaints @SleeperBengals Keep: Nico (10th for me), Olave (18th), Rice by forfeit (55th).
Cut: Nabers, Pickens, Higgins.
Those three sit 75th, 76th, and 77th on my board. Back to back to back. The cut line drew itself 😂

[Baseline Drive Fantasy @BDriveFantasy]

@SalVetriDFS Chase Brown easy. He's the only one of the four who isn't a trap on my board. His carry share went 18% to 61% in two years.

Henry 63rd, Walker 41st, Hampton 83rd.

[Baseline Drive Fantasy @BDriveFantasy]

@drayknowball controversial, but 12th. My picks land at 12, 13, 36, 37.
Seven of the priciest traps on my board are priced between 16 and 28. I'm never on the clock in that window. And my favorite round-3 buys (Kyren at 33, McConkey at 37) fall right to the second turn.

[Baseline Drive Fantasy @BDriveFantasy]

@thejoeholkashow Warren. He's TE3 on my board at 12.3 a game. Loveland is TE6 at 11.4. and Everyone drafts Loveland 8 picks EARLIER.

Better player, cheaper price.

[Baseline Drive Fantasy @BDriveFantasy]

@ChessLiam Respect the five after CMC. But Bijan and CMC are fair at cost, so that's not the bold part.
My two: Jonathan Taylor at pick 8 (he's 26th on my board, TD totals like that don't repeat) and Josh Allen at 28 (the position is free, the pick isn't).

[Baseline Drive Fantasy @BDriveFantasy]

@SleeperNFL @BoltUpYo A 33% carry share is not a top-5 workload. Even his absolute ceiling, 204 points, lands under Kyren's regular projection.
My top 5: Gibbs, Bijan, CMC, Achane, Kyren.
see the full guide in my bio

[Baseline Drive Fantasy @BDriveFantasy]

Josh Allen is the best quarterback in fantasy. Three straight years between 22 and 24 a game. And we still won't pay pick 28 — because Bo Nix goes seven rounds later at the position your league gives away. One starter slot. One bye. No flex. If Allen slides to round 4, sprint. At 28, salute and pass

[Baseline Drive Fantasy @BDriveFantasy]

The most expensive sentence in fantasy: "I need an elite QB." A replacement-level QB scores ~272 points. A replacement RB scores ~115. The waiver wire hands out QBs for free all season. It never hands out running backs. That math runs our whole QB board

[Baseline Drive Fantasy @BDriveFantasy]

@Underdog Keep: Harrison (21st on our board at pick 66), Tyson (38th at pick 83), Worthy. Cut the rest.

[Baseline Drive Fantasy @BDriveFantasy]

@SleeperNFL @SleeperVikings Brown. Never under a 30% share, now Maye's clear WR1. AND he costs three picks less than Jefferson.

[Baseline Drive Fantasy @BDriveFantasy]

The fade is people looking at the teardown — Tua gone, Hill gone, Waddle traded — and assuming everyone on that roster got worse. Wrong! Achane's the one guy who gets better when a team has to throw all day. Only real thing to watch is the camp calf, and the GM already said Week 1. Draft him and stop reading

[Baseline Drive Fantasy @BDriveFantasy]

Ja'Marr Chase's targets three years running: 145 → 175 → 185. Cincinnati fed him 32% of the offense last year. The touchdowns (17, then 8) will land somewhere in between. Pick 4 is the going rate for the WR1 seat. Pay it, then build your running backs.

[Baseline Drive Fantasy @BDriveFantasy]

DK Metcalf's target share: 23% in 2023. 21% in 2024. 22% last year. 23% projected. Three seasons, one number that never moves — and now the WR1 job in Pittsburgh. Pick 57 for a role that has never once wobbled. Stability doesn't go on sale twice

[Baseline Drive Fantasy @BDriveFantasy]

Kyren Williams, every preseason: everyone decides this is finally the year he loses the job. So he costs pick 33. Again. Three straight seasons over 15 a game. A carry share that's never dipped below 56%. McVay still there. No drama. No breakout arc. Just fourteen carries a game, on sale, annually.

[Baseline Drive Fantasy @BDriveFantasy]

@lukesawhook @rotobot_ai QB: Allen · Hurts · Jackson · Purdy
RB: Gibbs · Robinson · McCaffrey · Achane
WR: Chase · St. Brown · Nacua · Lamb
TE: McBride · Bowers · Warren · Kittle

🔒🔒

[Baseline Drive Fantasy @BDriveFantasy]

@SalVetriDFS Tate. Pick 4 overall, Cam Ward's first read since OTAs, thinnest receiver room of the four. He's 35th on our board at pick 62