When you are on your death bed you will think either
- I wish I had accomplished more
Or
- I wish I took more time to enjoy the ride
Neither are a bad choice, but there is no balance
You either spend every second maximizing output and forget to smell the roses
Or you take time to enjoy it all, and leave potential on the table
Funny how STH supply reached overheated levels last cycle after breaking away from the macro bottom, just like it has this cycle.
That’s another sign the bottom is in.
Even after reaching those levels in 2023, $BTC still continued to grind higher while respecting the HTF trend.
That’s exactly what we’re seeing now. Don’t get fooled by the Fear & Greed Index. The market can stay irrational far longer than most people expect.
$BTC:
Increased my shorts to $13M USD. I’m not calling for a bear market, but in fact the bear is over. I’m expecting a correction with a target of $79,000, and depends on BTC behavior at 79k I will decide the next step
After this correction, bull market continues
You would think everyone makes money in a $BTC BULL market, but that is simply not the case.
People develop a god complex. They convince themselves they understand something nobody else does, so instead of trading the trend in front of them, they constantly try to outsmart it.
Trade what you see, not what you want to see.
They counter trade "sentiment", not because the market has given them a genuine reason to, but because agreeing with the crowd makes them feel intellectually ordinary. They would rather be uniquely wrong than conventionally right.
This is why trying to be too smart becomes the downfall of so many people. They try to capture every move, time every entry perfectly and outsmart the entire market.
I always position slightly ahead of time, knowing that patience will eventually prove me right. I am not trying to outsmart everyone, nor am I trying to outsmart myself. I identify the move, position accordingly and give it time to play out.
“Everyone is bullish.”
“Everyone is bearish.”
Respectfully, who is everyone?
Jimmy on X with a $50 2x Bitcoin long? Is his overwhelming bullishness suddenly going to move the market? Cause I can assure you, trying to use X as "confluence" is retarded.
You are not finding meaningful confluence by imagining what “everyone” is doing. Most of the time, you are simply inventing a crowd in your head and positioning against a bunch of peanut sized traders who have absolutely zero influence on the market.
The desire to feel like the chosen one, to be the only person who saw it coming, causes traders to overcomplicate the simplest market conditions. They become more attached to proving their intelligence than making money.
The saying “everyone is a genius in a bull market” exists for a reason: bull markets reward participation. Yet some still find a way to lose because they cannot accept that the obvious trade might actually be the correct one. Instead, they convince themselves that because the trade looks too obvious, it cannot possibly be right. But in a bull market, the obvious trade is often exactly the right one.
It should not matter what you think everyone else is doing. The only thing that matters is the trade in front of you.
Trade the market, not the imaginary crowd inside your head.
I’d like to see you try trading against the Binance Cartel, who are notorious for absolutely ripping the souls out of people who short in a bull market.
You can choose to trade against a billionaire who moves the market, but I won’t.
Another interesting $BTC fractal.
If we happened to establish a higher low around 77.6K, we would be inheriting somewhat similar characteristics to the PA we saw back in 2022.
If something like this plays out, I would definitely be looking for hedge shorts above the current range highs.
I’m still holding the 2x long and actively looking for a hedge short. But right now, there’s no reason to force anything. I’m staying patient and waiting for the right moment to present itself.
Just thought it was worth sharing, as I trade a combination of patterns, recurring psychological dates, key events, and various other metrics to build confluence.
I am swing long on $ASTER.
I see $1.20 as the minimum target, with potential extensions toward $1.40.
We’re coming out of nearly 200 days of range compression, so I expect this move to take time to fully develop.
Invalidation remains below the range lows. For now, I’m simply letting the position play out.
would you say no to the free 7%? people are suddenly too bullish on bitcoin:native. Collect free money on the floor.
Trade "BTC touches 100,000 by Oct 1 at 2:00 AM-No" on @HyperliquidX using my referral code https://t.co/C8SG3Js4lt
$BTC
If we observe the 2022 bottom, most of the time bottoms form with 1 major impulse candle, like what we have seen.
In terms of retests, we usually don't see the "ideal retest". After BTC broke from 16K to 25K, it retested 19K, aligning with the 0.618.
If we apply the same principle to this impulsive candle up, then any push down is likely to be shallow, with the 73-70K region potentially serving as the local range bottom before pushing through 80K.
Before that, I expect some sort of range to form, accumulating late longs and building liquidity. We may even see another sweep above 79.5K before the final flush into the low 70s, followed by expansion.
You usually don't see an instant retrace of these trend shifting impulsive candles because it defeats the objective. The market needs to build long liquidity first before the final sweep and expansion.
So before we test any of these lower regions, I think we can expect more range based movement to accumulate liquidity.
In 3 years they’ll call us "lucky."
The exact words of every trader who never had the confidence to execute while the market was bleeding.
Keep it simple. Overcomplicating something this straightforward is how you miss the easiest opportunities... $BTC