Bruno Sultanum

Girls' dad, Husband, Science Fiction Fan, Fitness and Cooking Enthusiast, Economics Professor 🇺🇸🇮🇱🇺🇦

[Bruno Sultanum @BSultanum]

Money is the most fascinating topic in economics. This is a sample of the books I've been checking this week as I work on an article 😊

[Bruno Sultanum @BSultanum]

@GeorgeSelgin Many economic concepts and models have built-in value judgement because they're made to be normative. Pareto is one. Using consumer surplus to evaluate a merger is another. Of course, it isn't everything. I think everything interesting in economics is normative though.

[Bruno Sultanum @BSultanum]

@GeorgeSelgin Economic related: a common argument is that markets allocate goods better than centralized economies due to prices information content. If the opposite was true, should we have a centralized economy? I would argue no. Humans have the duty to make their choices. We are not cattle.

[Bruno Sultanum @BSultanum]

@GeorgeSelgin Many. We often consider harmful not to fulfill a moral obligation independent of outcomes.

Simple example: An alien race tell us to kill 100k children or all humans will be killed. I argue we don't do it because it is our duty to protect our kids. That is deontological ethics.

[Bruno Sultanum @BSultanum]

@GeorgeSelgin Pareto optimality is designed to steer clear of value judgements, within a consequentialist framework.

Consider your claim "it does mean that no one will be harmed", what is the measure of harm? The final outcome. That is all that matters.

[Bruno Sultanum @BSultanum]

@GeorgeSelgin But we don't only do description, right? Consider Pareto optimality, it has built-in consequentialist ethics. Economists refer to outcomes that are not Pareto optimal as what? Inneficient-i.e. not the best. We teach this in principles.

[Bruno Sultanum @BSultanum]

@dandolfa Agreed @dandolfa. I don't even know why people are giving you a hard time. Medicine also doesn't tell you to save a life, it only teaches you how to do it. In fact, it also teaches you how to kill someone if you want to use the knowlodge for such. Econ is the same.

[Bruno Sultanum @BSultanum]

In the 1820s, several Latin American nations defaulted—Peru, Mexico, Argentina. Brazil didn't. Why?

Nathan Rothschild was trapped. He held so much Brazilian debt that he couldn't let Brazil fail. So in 1829, while the continent burned, he issued a new loan to Brazil just to pay off the old ones.

We call it a Dynamic Hold-up Problem.

Grey Gordon (@RichFedResearch) presents our theory with @gaston_chaumont (@UofR) on why this mechanism keeps self-fulfilling crises alive at @_SaMMF_ on Feb 9 at 12PM. Register now!

https://t.co/jLV9x6bGsq

@UoE_Economics

[Bruno Sultanum @BSultanum]

Picture of my dog made to @_SaMMF_ inflation workshop. 😆

https://t.co/nFeM5ypBZw

[Milena Almagro @MilenaAlmagro]

Ok, pictures of my dogs made it to my MBA Competitive Strategy slides

Don't ask me how 🙃

[Bruno Sultanum @BSultanum]

1. It is going down since 2022 and have stayed within trend.
2. Industrial production was also going down and did reverse course. We are having an AI boom, we don't know how that will affect labor allocation accross industries.

[Mark J. Perry @Mark_J_Perry]

Since Tariff Man's "Liberation Day" Tariffs in April, the US has lost 67,000 factory jobs. Weren't those tariffs supposed to revive US manufacturing?

@StephenMoore @scottlincicome @JustinWolfers @FreeTradeBryan @FoxNews @VanceGinn @PhilWMagness

[Bruno Sultanum @BSultanum]

@Simon_Mongey @ModeledBehavior You don't mention this but it is also hard to measure how much of it is just coming from fiscal austerity. In. Feb-Nov 2025, the Federal deficit was $1.59T, compared to $1.68T in the same period of 2024. It is a big negative fiscal shock.

[Bruno Sultanum @BSultanum]

The numbers, while accurate, lack nuance and aggregate data often conceal specifics. The PhD market is not the same as the US academic market. The US academic market numbers exceed the pandemic lows.

Of course, this context does not reassure anyone facing the market today.

[John A. List @Econ_4_Everyone]

AEA job market update. The numbers don't lie, as this is the toughest market for PhD economists in recent memory.

JOE listings are down 20% from last year. Worse: they are 19% below COVID levels. Let that sink in.
The academic market took the biggest hit. Full-time US positions dropped 33% year-over-year. Liberal arts colleges and PhD-granting universities? Both down about a third. International academic postings fell 13% from last year, 25% from COVID.

Nonacademic isn't much better: down 27% from last year, 45% below COVID. And federal government hiring? That's where it gets ugly. Down 71% year-over-year, 79% below COVID. DOGE cuts plus the shutdown created a perfect storm.

One bright spot: private sector jobs in consulting, research, banking, and finance are holding steady at recent-year levels.

Bottom line for candidates: the data confirm what you're feeling. It's brutal out there. Universities facing their own financial pressures should still find ways to bridge unmatched candidates for another year. The talent is there—the opportunities aren't.

H/T John Cawley

[Bruno Sultanum @BSultanum]

Just returned from an outstanding IX Santiago Macro Workshop. @marcorojas89 and @javier_turen did an amazing job organizing it. A special thanks to @caiohm for the invitation and to all participants for the great talks and discussions. Check the attached program!

@CBChileresearch @IE_UC

[Bruno Sultanum @BSultanum]

Just got my copy! What are you waiting for? Order now and check this awesome interview with @poweill
@benjamminlester and Julien Hugonnier at
@_SaMMF_ in the link below!

https://t.co/y7tyQKbW1r

[Ben Lester @benjamminlester]

Advance copy of our book, The Economics of Over-the-Counter Markets has arrived! So thankful for my co-authors @poweill and Julien Hugonnier, and for our publisher @PrincetonUPress. Order your copy! Discount code in thread below. #econtwitter (1/4)

[Bruno Sultanum @BSultanum]

@ojblanchard1 China had an opportunity to strong-arm Iran into a nuclear deal and Russia into peace, in exchange for European concessions and alignment. They didn't. They sided with the losing side of history.

[Bruno Sultanum @BSultanum]

The USSR also led the US in the Space Race and heavy industry for a while, not to mention the emphasis on STEM education. Long-term it doesn't work. For an idea, only Japan has a higher debt-to-GDP ratio than China—and China isn't even a developed economy! The Chinese economy will break sooner or later, as the USSR did.

[Bruno Sultanum @BSultanum]

I will answer respectfully why identity in debates makes me uncomfortable, because I feel you don't really understand. It's similar to when you're debating something, and someone brings up a big-shot name who said the opposite, so I must be wrong. There's no reply to it. It's just an authority argument, so what's the point of debating the arguments?

The same applies to identity. I am a white heterosexual man. If that makes my intellectual argument better or worse, it kills the whole point of having intellectual debates. That's why I believe we should avoid pointing out these identities during argumentations.

Does it make sense?

[Bruno Sultanum @BSultanum]

@dandolfa Whatever you think of the tariffs, we can all agree this ad was a big mistake, right? I mean, of course it would make negotiations more difficult. Unless Ontario's goal was to sabotage them, this makes no sense.

[Bruno Sultanum @BSultanum]

From the prosecutors fillings: The suspect’s mother told investigators that “over the last year or so, Robinson had become more political and had started to lean more to the left – becoming more pro-gay and trans-rights oriented. She stated that Robinson began to date his roommate, a biological male who was transitioning genders.”

https://t.co/EhxEWWoY6A

[Bruno Sultanum @BSultanum]

@AltermattLukas @alex_baur @charliekirk11 The killer was dating his transgender roommate. That is not apparent groyper. The only people saying he was right wing are liberals trying to mask liberal violence against conservatives.