Bitcoin Economy

Value Investor | Growth Stocks | Engineer | MBA

$BTC, $ETH, $LINK, $TAO.

NFA.

[Bitcoin Economy @BTC_Economy]

$MARA just triggered a golden cross, the exact same signal we saw in 2021 during the parabolic run. Meanwhile, Bollinger Bands are squeezing tighter each week.

Breakout loading… 🚀

#MARA

[MARA @MARA]

MARA announces a strategic partnership with Starwood Digital Ventures to accelerate delivery of cutting-edge hyperscale, enterprise, and AI capable digital infrastructure.

The joint platform is expected to deliver approximately 1 GW of near-term IT Capacity, with a pathway to more than 2.5 GW.

[Bloomberg @business]

MARA is partnering with Barry Sternlicht’s Starwood to develop some of the Bitcoin miner’s existing sites into infrastructure that can support artificial intelligence applications and some other cloud services https://t.co/nS55c1AWxn

[Bitcoin Economy @BTC_Economy]

@frihetspenger @Matt_Hougan Great discussion. My only concern regarding Chainlink (and thus the LINK token) is value capture. Currently, it's not enough to create value for token holders, except through staking. I'm curious whether this will happen in the future as it scales. I wonder your thoughts on this.

[Bitcoin Economy @BTC_Economy]

@TheLinkPanda @CryptoMichNL Thanks!

[Bitcoin Economy @BTC_Economy]

@DocumentingBTC @MARA This is exactly what $TAO does.

[Bitcoin Economy @BTC_Economy]

@level941 @grok join the discussion

[Bitcoin Economy @BTC_Economy]

@level941 Thanks for your answer btw. Always open to a good discussion on these subjects.

[Bitcoin Economy @BTC_Economy]

@level941 @level941

[Bitcoin Economy @BTC_Economy]

@level941 Do you have a problem against Chainlink itself?

[Bitcoin Economy @BTC_Economy]

There we go. Continue the bull.

[Bitcoin Economy @BTC_Economy]

#Bitcoin may NOT lose the 50-week SMA.

Follow for updates on $BTC.

[Bitcoin Economy @BTC_Economy]

It closed above the 50-week SMA. Very bullish for the entire cryptomarket. I foresee a big reversal soon. #Bitcoin #MARA #Altcoins

[Bitcoin Economy @BTC_Economy]

#Bitcoin may NOT lose the 50-week SMA.

Follow for updates on $BTC.

[Bitcoin Economy @BTC_Economy]

#Bitcoin may NOT lose the 50-week SMA.

Follow for updates on $BTC.

[Bitcoin Economy @BTC_Economy]

@CryptoMichNL $LINK

[Kashyap Sriram @kashyap286]

Bitcoin miner turned AI bubble stock $IREN is up 22% pre-market on announcing a $9.7 billion GPU contract with $MSFT.

As always, the devil is in the details.

Before it can provide any service, IREN first needs to spend $5.8 billion buying the GPUs and ancillaries.

MSFT will provide $1.94 billion upfront, but IREN needs to come up with a further $3.86 billion to fund this capex.

Assuming this is debt financed at 10%, the 5-year contract achieves breakeven in year 4.

Here's the math:

Annual revenue: $1.94 billion
Initial capex: $5.8 billion
Total interest on loan: $0.77 billion
Gross profit: $3.13 billion
Annualized gross profit: $626 million

IREN currently spends $136 mn on SG&A to capture $500 mn in revenue. That amounts to 27 cents out of every dollar in revenue, down from 38 cents the previous year.

Assuming the same run rate and zero depreciation on the new data center facility, the company will spend $528 mn on SG&A to capture the incremental $1.94 bn in annual MSFT revenue.

Annualized operating profit = $98 million

Let's be charitable and assume the company manages to cut down SG&A to 20% of revenue.

Optimistic annualized operating profit = $238 million

While "$9.7 billion contract" makes for a great headline, the numbers throw cold water on this fairy tale.

Making $238 million on a $5.8 billion investment amounts to a mere 4.1% pre-tax return.

The hard truth is data centers are a low-margin business. Microsoft is smart, which is why they have signed this deal rather than build this capability in-house.

IREN investors have nothing to cheer for. This deal is inferior to simply buying 10-year US treasuries and calling it a day.

[941 @level941]

Yes, @level941 is explaining that $MARA is stuck around 20 because of a structural trap created by its convertible bonds and the way those bondholders hedge their positions. $MARA issued zero-coupon convertible notes that can turn into shares at about 20.26 with a capped call near 24. The institutions that hold those bonds hedge by shorting $MARA stock when the price moves up toward that zone and covering when it falls. This creates a mechanical feedback loop that pins the price in a narrow range. Every time $MARA tries to rally, the hedge selling kicks in and pushes it back down, and when it dips too low, those same players buy back to stay balanced. It is not retail sentiment or weak demand that keeps it stuck. It is the math and structure of the trade. The gamma from all those short hedges acts like a magnet that traps the stock around 20. The only way to break out of that is for something fundamental to change such as faster earnings growth, a major partnership, or a new policy announcement that forces institutions to reprice the company as a growth asset instead of a bond proxy. @level941 compares it to what Michael Saylor does with MicroStrategy. Saylor also issues convertible debt, but he immediately uses the proceeds to buy Bitcoin. That turns the bonds into a reflexive loop because when Bitcoin rises, his company’s balance sheet strengthens, the stock rallies, and that lets him issue more capital at higher prices. It becomes a self-fueling machine. $MARA could follow that same model by using its capital to directly purchase Bitcoin or expand its energy and compute infrastructure so that every raise feeds growth instead of sitting idle. Until that happens, the stock will likely stay near 20 as long as those bond hedges remain in place. But when fundamentals shift or a major announcement changes the equation, the short hedges will start to unwind. That unwind could trigger a sharp move higher because all the dealers and funds that have been shorting to hedge will have to buy back quickly. @level941’s main point is that $MARA’s current price action is not natural trading. It is a structural condition built into its convertible notes that can flip into a violent upside revaluation once growth or policy changes force the market to treat it as real equity again.

Thanks 942. This is correct.

[941 @level941]

https://t.co/DA357itAGN

[941 @level941]

https://t.co/JKt5flZnXZ

[Bitcoin Economy @BTC_Economy]

Another good read by @level941

[941 @level941]

https://t.co/Ba8LfRy0nF