Bitcoin bounces off $80K. is it just a dead cat or start of the “Santa rally”?
Domestic and global liquidity
Fed policy updates
Treasury TGA projections
Japanese Stimulus Update: A Massive Fiscal Jolt Amid Reflation Momentum
https://t.co/qsj3iHF0Lr
@dharmatrade Interesting stuff.
If my memory serves me (and it's been 20 years), the main debate was around a grammatical translation issue with the Greek word "Theos" in John 1:1, around a god VS almighty god.
NWT: "The Word was A God"
Standard: "The Word was God"
Tomato/tomahto 😜
Correct: 5 (More countries BTC strategy; SCOTUS IEEPA ruling; Powell steps down; DXY strength greater than expected; No China/Taiwan grab)
Not correct: 2 (10YR yields dropping "throughout" the year so far; DXY specific quarterly ranges)
Pending: ~9–10 (Bitcoin new ATH + GLI close; global liquidity topping; no recession; Fed rates <3.25% in H2; 10YR close >4%; Russia/Ukraine war end by Q4; Trump-Putin bromance; and some nuances on liquidity/Bitcoin metrics)
2026 outlook:
Bitcoin makes a new ATH by H2-2026 and closes GLI divergence. (M2 overlay bros so back)
More countries implement their versions of a Bitcoin strategy
Global liquidity trends higher in H1-2026 and tops in late H2
No recession in 2026
Dollar (DXY) strength is greater than expected (Q1=$97-99, Q2=$95-97, Q3=$93-95, Q4=$95-98)
SCOTUS strikes down IEEPA tariffs with reciprocity over refunds. IEEPA replaced with other tariffs
10YR bond yields drop throughout the year but close >4%
Powell makes it to the end of his term and steps down.
Fed fund rates hit lower than 3.25% in H2-2026
Geopolitical Wildcards: No China/Taiwan grab, Russia/Ukraine war over by Q4, Trump-Putin bromance starts.
@IncomeSharks@JezziiB Liz Warren makes $174k/yr and is worth $12m flying private jets.. how about stfu.. how about tax government insider trading and "book deals" at 75%. It's a cute trick to convince everyone they are not the problem, it is the most productive that are the problem.
@pahueg You’re forgetting how the Fed does things: Rebranding.
Warsh will likely just lean on the adjusted PCE (probably the trimmed mean), and declare inflation “under control.”
No real fix. Just a new measuring stick.
Bessent isn’t getting surprised by any of this.