ArB

Retired professional. 40+ yrs trading stocks/bonds/commodities. There are old pilots and bold pilots, but no old, bold pilots. No advice-ideas that interest me

[ArB @BWM_AB]

"In the world of business, bad news often surfaces serially: You see a cockroach in your kitchen; as the days go by, you meet his relatives." - Warren Buffett

Cockroach Theory: There's never just one cockroach-the premise that when a company reveals bad news, more is yet to come

[ArB @BWM_AB]

#Platinum formed a bullish engulfing candlestick on the daily chart yesterday. Sideways/up short term. $Platinum $PPLT #PL_F #Metals #Futures #Commodities

[ArB @BWM_AB]

#Wheat is breaking out of a little high level resistance.
#ZW_F $WEAT $Wheat #Commodities #Grain #OATT $DBA #Futures #OATT

[ArB @BWM_AB]

#Palladium continues higher after breaking out of the downtrend and has formed a bullish engulfing candlestick on the daily chart. Sideways/up short term.
$PALL #PA_F #Metals #Futures #Commodities

[ArB @BWM_AB]

#Palladium broke out of downtrend last week. It has pulled back to test the downtrend line and 10-day moving average. It is forming a bullish engulfing candlestick on the daily chart. Sideways/up short term. Caveat--day isn't over yet. $PALL #PA_F #Metals #Futures #Commodities

[ArB @BWM_AB]

#Platinum continues to trade higher after breaking out of the declining wedge pattern. It formed a bullish engulfing candlestick on the daily chart and continues trading above the 10-day MA. Sideways/up short term. $Platinum $PPLT #PL_F #Metals #Futures #Commodities

[ArB @BWM_AB]

#Platinum contract is breaking out of the declining wedge pattern on the daily chart. Counts to around $3,000. Caveat--day isn't over yet. $Platinum $PPLT #Metals #Futures #Commodities

[ArB @BWM_AB]

#Palladium broke out of downtrend last week. It has pulled back to test the downtrend line and 10-day moving average. It is forming a bullish engulfing candlestick on the daily chart. Sideways/up short term. Caveat--day isn't over yet. $PALL #PA_F #Metals #Futures #Commodities

[ArB @BWM_AB]

#Platinum contract is breaking out of the declining wedge pattern on the daily chart. Counts to around $3,000. Caveat--day isn't over yet. $Platinum $PPLT #Metals #Futures #Commodities

[ArB @BWM_AB]

#Platinum contract has bounced off of the 200 day moving average and is now threatening to break out of a potentially bullish declining wedge pattern on the daily chart. Could get interesting! $Platinum $PPLT #PL_F #Metals #Futures #Commodities

[ArB @BWM_AB]

#Platinum contract has bounced off of the 200 day moving average and is now threatening to break out of a potentially bullish declining wedge pattern on the daily chart. Could get interesting! $Platinum $PPLT #PL_F #Metals #Futures #Commodities

[ArB @BWM_AB]

The Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index(black line) recently hit a low of 3.45%--% of stocks that had point-and-figure buys. Last time $BPGDM was this low was fall of 2022 right before a rally started in $HUI (orange line). Time for a bounce? $GDX $HUI $GLD #GC_F

[ArB @BWM_AB]

#Sugar is approaching a 2+ year downtrend line. Possible breakout coming? $Sugar #SB_F $CANE
#Futures #Commodities #OATT

[ArB @BWM_AB]

#Soybeans formed a bearish hanging man candlestick on the daily chart. Sideways/down short term. $Soybeans #ZS_F $SOYB #Futures #Commodities #OATT

[Tom McClellan @McClellanOsc]

NYSE's McClellan A-D Oscillator as of March 12 is now as oversold as what we saw with the April 2025 tariff crash.

[Tom McClellan @McClellanOsc]

A Zweig Breadth Thrust is obviously not happening now, but Thursday's negative breadth provided the setup for one to potentially happen over the next 2 weeks. The first criterion is A/(A+D) going below 0.40, which marks an oversold condition to bounce from.

[ArB @BWM_AB]

#Cocoa formed a bullish engulfing candlestick on the weekly chart. Sideways/up intermediate term. Finally the bottom is in? $Cocoa #CC_F

[ArB @BWM_AB]

#Silver formed a second bearish engulfing candlestick on the weekly chart. Sideways/down intermediate term. $Silver #SI_F $SLV $SIL #Futures #Commodities $PSLV

[ArB @BWM_AB]

#Silver formed a bearish engulfing candlestick on the weekly chart and a bearish shooting star candlestick on the monthly chart. Sideways/down intermediate term. $Silver #SI_F $SLV $SIL #Futures #Commodities

[ArB @BWM_AB]

After forming a bearish engulfing candlestick a few weeks ago and trading sideways, #Palladium has formed another bearish engulfing candlestick on the weekly chart. Sideways/down intermediate term. $Palladium #PA_F $PALL #Mining #Futures #Commodities

[ArB @BWM_AB]

#Platinum formed another bearish engulfing candlestick on the weekly chart after going sideways for a few weeks. Sideways/down intermediate term. $Platinum #PL_F $PPLT $PLAT
#Futures #Commodities

[ArB @BWM_AB]

#Platinum formed a bearish engulfing candlestick on the weekly chart. Sideways/down intermediate term. $Platinum #PL_F $PPLT $PLAT #Futures #Commodities

[ArB @BWM_AB]

Opportunity on the long side? The boat is listing to the short side. #ZB_F #ZN_F $TLT

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The short US bond trade is very crowded:

Short interest in the popular Treasury bond-tracking ETF, $TLT, is up to a record 150.5 million shares.

This is 10 TIMES above levels seen in March 2023, which stood at ~15 million shares.

Short interest has TRIPLED since 2024 despite the $TLT price remaining flat over this period.

Long-term Treasuries have been in a bear market for nearly 6 years now.

Since April 2020, $TLT has declined -40%, with the biggest drawdown reaching -47% in October 2023.

Long-term bonds are more hated than ever.

[ArB @BWM_AB]

#RBOB #Gasoline continues to rally and is making its first higher high on the daily chart. $UGA #Futures #Commodities #OTT #RB_F

[ArB @BWM_AB]

#Gasoline formed a bullish hammer candlestick several days ago and then broke out of a bullish declining wedge formation today. Sometimes the signals for crude oil appear in the derivatives. #RB_F $UGA #RBOB

[ArB @BWM_AB]

#RBOB Gasoline continues to rally after breaking out of the bullish declining wedge and forming a bullish hammer candlestick last week. $UGA #Futures #Commodities #OOTT #RB_F

[Richard Bernstein Advisors @RBAdvisors]

Any #Fed member who isn’t concerned about the clear upward trend in secular #inflation expectations probably isn’t focusing on data.