$ASTS: đ¨đ°ď¸ AST SPACEMOBILE ACHIEVES SPECTRAL EFFICIENCY OF 9.89 BPS/HZ ON LOWBAND SPECTRUM
SpaceMob had previously estimated that AST SpaceMobile satellites could reach spectral efficiency of ~4bps/Hz
Guillaume Lebrun, Head of Regulatory Satellite Connect Europe (AST SpaceMobile's European JV), disclosed that recent Block-1 satellite testing achieved 98.9Mbps download speeds on only 10MHz of spectrum - a surprising and technologically astonishing feat
Phased Array SIZE MATTERSâ˘ď¸
250 Years. One Relentless Spirit of Innovation
Now extending it beyond Earth
For two and a half centuries, America has been a place where bold ideas take flight.
We are proud to continue the tradition - building what has never been built before: the worldâs first space-based cellular broadband network to connect directly to everyday smartphones.
Together, we are working to build a more connected America, and a more connected world. đđśđąđşđ˛
Built in Texas. Broadband from space. A market we invented.
#FourthOfJuly #America250 #MadeInUSA #ASTSpaceMobile #ConnectingTheUnconnected
Successful launch!đđđđđđđđđđ
All satellites were captured within minutes and already orbiting Earth with all systems nominal.
Congratulations to the incredible AST SpaceMobile team! 250Y U.S.A. đđś đ¤
The last BlueBird in the convoy is on the move.
BlueBird 9 has officially left our Texas facilities and is heading to Cape Canaveral to reunite with BlueBirds 8 and 10.
Next stop: the launch pad.đ đ đ đ đ đ đ đ đ đ
Built in Texas. Broadband from space. Designed to connect directly to everyday smartphones. đđśđą
#ASTSpaceMobile #Broadband #ConnectingtheUnconnected #BlueBirds
I own both $ASTS and $RKLB. I like both companies. But the SpaceX S-1 just settled a debate that some people in the space investing community have been having for months.
SpaceX broke down their own TAM in their SEC filing:
Space Launch: $370 billion
Satellite Connectivity: $1.6 trillion
Connectivity is 4x the launch TAM. By SpaceX's own math.
And it shows up in their revenue. Starlink generated $11.4 billion in 2025 â roughly 61% of SpaceX's total revenue â growing nearly 50% year over year. Launch, the business Rocket Lab competes in, is the minority of SpaceX's business and shrinking as a percentage every year.
SpaceX didn't name Rocket Lab as a competitor in their S-1. They named $ASTS. By name. In a legally binding federal document.
Because the market that matters most in space isn't who can get things to orbit the fastest. It's who owns the connectivity layer once it gets there.
Now look at the valuations.
$RKLB: ~$75 billion market cap. $200M in quarterly revenue. Trading at roughly 90x forward sales. A great company executing well in a $370 billion launch TAM.
$ASTS: ~$34 billion market cap. The only public pure-play in a $740 billion D2D TAM that SpaceX just validated in their own SEC filing. Launching broadband satellites next month. 98.9 Mbps already proven. All three US carriers in a JV around it. Nearly 60 MNO partners globally covering 3 billion subscribers. $1.2B in contracted revenue commitments. MDA SHIELD contract. 10 government use cases. AND the most valuable spectrum position in D2D on earth â 1,150 MHz of tunable MNO spectrum globally, 45 MHz of L-band MSS in North America secured for 80+ years, and 60 MHz of S-band priority rights worldwide. SpaceX paid $17 billion just to get 65 MHz of D2D spectrum. AST already has more than anyone.
Rocket Lab is worth more than double AST right now.
That's the valuation gap the SpaceX S-1 just made impossible to ignore.
I'm not anti-Rocket Lab. I own it. But when SpaceX themselves tell the SEC that connectivity is 4x the launch TAM â and then name AST as their competitor in that market â the math on which stock represents the better opportunity becomes pretty clear.
The market the world is building toward is broadband from space to every phone on earth.
SpaceX filed the TAM. SpaceX named the competitor.
$ASTS is trading at less than half of $RKLB.
$ASTS - Some thoughts on SpaceX's prospectus in regard to Starlink Mobile.
To succeed, Starlink Mobile basically needs what AST SpaceMobile already has.
đ Launch
SpaceX needs fully operational Starship to launch the V2/V3 satellites needed for strong mobile signals.
AST needs what's already on the market. AST's Bluebird satellite is already compatible with all major launch providers, including SpaceX Falcon 9.
đ Carrier Deals
SpaceX needs to make MNO partnerships (like T-Mobile and Airtel) permanent. They currently have 30 partnerships and need to grow that substantially.
AST currently has about 60 partnerships, and and growing. If T-Mobile joins AST that would be a big win for AST and a big loss for SpaceX. AST is ahead with more partners and deeper integration.
đ Own spectrum
SpaceX is finalizing the $17 billion EchoStar acquisition to secure independent, high-capacity 5G bands.
AST is finalizing the Ligado agreement to L-band spectrum in the US and Canada.
đ Lowband spectrum
SpaceX can't do low-band spectrum at the moment and can therefore not reuse MNO's spectrum.
AST SpaceMobile's current satellites are built to use low-band spectrum and can therefore reuse MNO's spectrum.
đ FCC and ITU Approvals
SpaceX needs to win global regulatory clearances for higher transmission power limits and interference mitigation.
AST is already compliant with current transmission power limits and interference rules.
đ Constellation Density
SpaceX needs to launch thousands more cellular-equipped satellites to ensure constant, zero-gap global coverage.
AST needs only 100 satellites for global coverage.
đ Phone Hardware
SpaceX needs the handset manufacturers to implement hardware and software modifications for compliance and optimal performance.
AST's satellites works with today's unmodified phones. Future hardware and software modifications will improve AST's service but are not criticaly needed.
Verdict: I'm long AST.
People are sleeping on what $ASTS actually is as a business. Let me show you why this could become one of the greatest cash flow machines ever built.
First understand the comparison.
Netflix has 325 million subscribers paying $15 a month. $45 billion in annual revenue. $380 billion market cap.
They spent 15 years and tens of billions in content spend acquiring every single one of those subscribers one at a time.
Spotify has 290 million premium subscribers paying $11 a month. $17 billion in annual revenue. $120 billion market cap.
Same story. Years of losses. Billions in marketing. Fighting for every user.
$ASTS does not work like that.
$ASTS charges carriers a wholesale fee per subscriber. AT&T does the acquisition. Verizon handles the billing. T-Mobile manages the churn.
$ASTS provides the network layer and collects on every user that opts in. No customer acquisition cost. No marketing spend. No churn risk. Pure recurring infrastructure revenue.
Now here is the simple math.
3.3 billion subscribers sitting inside partner carrier networks today. Management is guiding 2027 revenue approaching $1 billion with half the commercial pipeline already booked.
Analysts project $1.6 billion in 2028 with profitability expected that same year.
At $5 per user per month on 1 billion subscribers that is $60 billion in annual revenue.
Netflix generates $45 billion serving 325 million subscribers they had to fight for one at a time.
$ASTS has access to 10x that subscriber base through partners who already own the customer relationship.
FCC authorized up to 248 satellites. They are targeting 45 to 60 by end of 2026. The revenue curve has barely started.
This is not just a satellite company.
It is one of the most scalable subscription infrastructure businesses ever built.
I donât think people fully understand what just happened with $ASTS and T-Mobile.
Everyone is treating this like a minor partnership announcement. It is not. Let me explain why this changes everything.
Before today $ASTS had AT&T and Verizon. Two of the three major US carriers. T-Mobile was the holdout. The one carrier actively working with Starlink instead.
The bear case for $ASTS has always been that T-Mobile stays on Starlink and a third of the US market stays out of reach.
That bear case just died.
AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile announced a joint venture for direct-to-device satellite connectivity. All three. Together.
And the CEO of $ASTS posted one thing in response. âSpace-based cellular broadband to every American is coming.â And tagged all three carriers.
You do not tag all three carriers if you are not the infrastructure behind all three carriers.
Now think about what this actually means for the math.
AT&T covers 230 million subscribers. Verizon covers 140 million. T-Mobile just added 130 million more.
That is 500 million US subscribers now sitting inside the $ASTS distribution network. Every single one of them reachable without a new device, without a new plan, without any friction at all.
The entire US market. Every major carrier. One satellite network.
Starlink spent 5 years and 10,000 satellites fighting for every single one of their 10 million subscribers. $ASTS just got access to 500 million existing ones with the flip of a switch.
This is not a partnership announcement.
This is the entire US wireless industry consolidating around $ASTS as the satellite layer.
People are going to look back at today as the moment the thesis became inevitable.
Announcement: Mid-June launch of three Bluebird satellites aboard a Falcon 9 rocket.đđđđđđđđđđ
32 next-generation satellites at advanced stages of assembly to be ready for launch.
Network deployment with a launch every one to two months on average.
Space-based cellular broadband. Built in Texas.
đđśđą
#ASTSpaceMobile #Broadband #ConnectingtheUnconnected #BlueBirds
$ASTS: AST SpaceMobile Catalyst Tracker
A review of what has been and what is to come
Upcoming Catalysts:
âď¸BB8 - BB10 Delivery to Florida and Launch on Falcon 9
âď¸BB11 - BB13 Delivery to Florida and Launch on Falcon 9
âď¸Block-2 Launches in Batches of 3-4x or 6-8x satellites every 1-2 months
âď¸FCC Approval for Full US SCS Commercial Service
âď¸HALO Europa 1st Task Order
âď¸Execution of more Definitive Commercial Agmts w/ Prepaid Revenue and/or Investment w/ More than 50 global MNOs
âď¸FirstNet Investment and Definitive Commercial Agreement
âď¸Golden Dome (SHIELD Awarded, NOBLE Up Next)
âď¸Unlocking portion of $20M, $25M, and $65M in Revenue Prepayments from AT&T, Vodafone and Verizon upon completion of milestones
âď¸Beta Testing w/ AT&T and FirstNet in 2026
âď¸Updates on Google Services Agmt Partnership
âď¸Initiation of Research Coverage by JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, others
âď¸Expansion of 11x contracts w/ Department of Defense, Space Development Agency, Defense Innovation Unit, Missile Defense Agency and more
âď¸FCC 5G Fund grant
âď¸Progress on 8 to 32x Block-2 BlueBirds in currently in Production
âď¸Confirmation of Production Ramp to 6x satellites a Month
âď¸Proposal for PNT Service Accepted by FCC as Alternative to GPS
âď¸Initial Commercial Service w/ AT&T, Rakuten, Verizon, Vodafone in late 2026
âď¸Securing +$500M of EXIM and IFC non-dilutive Funding
âď¸Pursuit of L- and S-Band Spectrum Licenses Globally
âď¸EU Allocation of 2GHz MSS Spectrum to SatCo JV
âď¸Commercial agreements
âď¸Strategic Partnerships and Investments to Focus on AI Data Center Opportunity
âď¸Catalysts the SpaceMob have yet to Contemplate
Recently Completed Milestones:
â BB7 đ Launch on Blue Origin New Glenn-3
â 7x New Design Composite Rings Delivered to Midland
â Acquisition of New Manufacturing Space in Midland, TX focused exclusively on Micron production
â Telus Definitive Commercial Agreement w Strategic Investment and $200M Committed Revenue (speculated)
â Partnership with Orange
â Partnership with Taiwan Mobile
â Partnership with AXIAN Telecom
â Satellite Connect Europe Partnership (âSCEâ) with Telefonica
â SCE Partnership with Orange
â SCE Partnership with CK Hutchinson
â SCE Partnership with Sunrise Switzerland
â SCE Partnership with Vodafone Romania
â SCE Partnership with VodafoneThree UK
â SCE Partnership with Vodafone Ireland
â AST Awarded $30M Prime Contract by US SDA for Halo Europa Program
â $63M to 71M of 2H 2026 Revenue
â Development of AI Engine to Dynamically Manage Satellite Capacity and Spectrum Efficiency = Seeking 3-10x Capacity Improvement
â Disclosed over $1.2 billion in Aggregate Contracted Revenue Commitments from Commercial Partners
â Raised $1.08B 2.25% Convertible Note resulting in $4B of Pro Forma Cash
â BB6 Unfolding Phased Array
â AST Awarded Prime Contract Position on US Missile Defense Agency SHIELD Program
â Filed w/ FCC to modify Existing License to use S-Band spectrum outside of the US
â $175M Saudi Telecom prepayment to be made by 2025YE
â BB6 Launched from India on ISRO LVM3
â Micron Production to Support 6x a Month by End of Q3 2025
â Expanded Manufacturing Floor Space to 500,000 Square Feet
â 1,800 Global Workforce
â Established Germany as SatCo JV operations center, filed constellation with ITU
â Closed $420M bridge financing to support Ligado spectrum transaction
â Saudi Telecom 10-Year Definitive Commercial Agreement w/ $175M prepayment and over $1.8B value
â Confirmed L- and S- band Spectrum to be Incorporated into Next 3GPP release
â Verizon Definitive Commercial Agreement
â Raised $1.15B 2.0% Convertible Note resulting in $3.2B of Pro Forma Cash and Liquidity
â Successful Video and Voice Testing with Bell Canada
â US Bankruptcy Court confirms AST and Ligado L-band spectrum transaction transaction, deal now only subject to FCC appoval
â Acquired Global S-Band Spectrum Priority Rights held Under International Telecommunication Union
â Successfully Completed the First-ever Native Voice Call (VoLTE) and Rext (SMS) with a Standard Cell Phone using AT&T Spectrum and Core Network
â Hired JR Wilson as Chief of Networks and Spectrum, formerly AT&T VP of Tower Strategy, Roaming & In-Building Solutions
â Raised $575M 2.375% Convertible Note w/ Capped Call struck at $120, resulting in $1.5B of Pro Forma Cash on Balance Sheet
â Repurchased $360M of $460M 4.25% Convertible Note
â Entered into $550M of Non-Recourse Senior Secured Term Loan to fund Ligado Transaction
â Secured $100M Equipment Loan Facility
â Moved to Russell 1000 from Russell 2000 Index
â Demonstrated World's First Tactical NTN Connectivity over Standard Mobile Devices with Defense Prime Fairwinds Technologies
â Announced Latest MNO Partnership with Vodafone Idea of India
â Hired Jennifer Manner as SVP of Regulatory Affairs and International Strategy, Former NTIA Senior Advisor of Space and Policy and EchoStar SVP of Regulatory Affairs
â FCC Accepts ASTâs Application for US Commercial Service
â FCC Chair Brendan Carr and Senator Ted Cruz visit HQ in support of AST
â Verizon and AT&T Spectrum Lease Agreements filed w/ FCC
â FCC grants STA for beta testing w/ AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, Bell Canada, and Rakuten
â FCC grants STA for Firstnet Evaluation on Public Safety Band 14
â AST SpaceMobile Forms SatCo Joint Venture w/ Vodafone to Better Serve European market, Selects Luxembourg as HQ and Germany for NOC
â Secured $43M and $20M Contracts w/ US Space Development Agency and Defense Innovation Unit
â AST5000 ASIC Development Finished and Integration into Block-2 Sats in Q2 2026
â Successful Video Calls Completed w/ AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone and Rakuten
â Exercised Multi-launch Agmts w/ SpaceX, Blue Origin and ISRO
â Reached +3,800 Patent & Patent pending Claims
â Initiation of Research Coverage by Bank of America, Clear Street, Roth Capital, Cantor Fitzgerald, Oppenheimer and William Blair
â Established Coordination Agmt w/ US National Science Foundation Covering Satellite and Ground-based Astronomy Operations
â Closed $460M 4.25% Convertible Debt Funding
â Signed 2-3x Additional Global MNOs, Bringing the Total to +53x Covering +3.2B Subscribers
â Opened European Research Center w/ Vodafone and University of Malaga in Spain
â Signed Deal w/ Singaporeâs Defense Science and Technology Agency
â Joined 5G Automotive Association, which Develops and Promotes 5G-based Solutions for Connected Autonomous Vehicles
FCC Grants AST SpaceMobile Commercial Authority to Deliver Direct-to-Device Cellular Broadband from Space Advancing Nationwide, Resilient Cellular Broadband Connectivity in the United States
https://t.co/z5MFyMrnTs
You want a CEO that has an incentive to push the share price higher and sees the company as his mission.
Abel doesn't take a salary but owns (and hasn't sold any) 78m shares.
He's working night shifts and has slept on the factory floor to get the next BBs in the sky $ASTS
AST SpaceMobile Announces BlueBird 7 Launch Date of Sunday, April 19, Invites Retail Investors to Attend Live Launch Event at Cape Canaveral
https://t.co/qrGbqA4cD0
$ASTS - Launch Prediction Chart đâŁ
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What we know, based on company communication: âŁ
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âšď¸ Deployment plan to reach 45-60 satellites in orbit during 2025 and 2026
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âšď¸ AST has communicated that they plan for 248 satellites by the end of 2028. âŁ
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đĄ Next launch in a few weeks - Bluebird 7 on New Glenn.
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đĄ After that, a batch shipment of 6 Bluebirds (BB8-BB13) on a Falcon 9 x 2.
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đĄ I predict that AST will have 47 satellites in orbit by October 2026 - enough for continuous coverage in US, Europe and Japan.âŁ
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đĄ I predict 63 satellites in orbit at the end of 2026.âŁ
I update this chart on a monthly basis or when something occurs that affects these predictions.
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â Make sure to follow for future updates. âŁ
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Latest chart is always the pinned post on my profile.