In 1972, a Stanford psychologist gave 4-year-olds a choice.
"One marshmallow now or wait 15 minutes and get two."
Rich kid waits. Poor kid eats it immediately.
For 50 years, psychologists said this proved poor kids lack self-control.
Wrong.
Poor kids learned that promises get broken. The second marshmallow isn't coming.
Professor Jiang Xueqin spent 50 minutes explaining why the poor kids are the rational ones:
The psychologist was named Walter Mischel. He put a marshmallow in front of 4-year-olds and said: "You can have it now, or wait and get two."
He tracked them for decades. The kids who waited did better at everything.
His conclusion: success means delayed gratification. Long-term planning. Self-control.
So educators built curricula around it. Teach kids self-control, resilience, self-assessment. They'll succeed.
It didn't work.
"If you take a bad student and teach him self-control, resilience, and self-assessment, the student doesn't actually get better."
The reason is simple: correlation does not equal causation.
Successful people wake up at 4am. But waking up at 4am won't make you successful.
If you're successful, you wake up early because you're motivated. If you're successful, you have self-control because your environment rewards it.
The traits don't cause success. Success causes the traits.
Here's what actually determines success:
"We know for a fact that rich people are much more likely to succeed than poor people. School doesn't really matter. If your parents are rich, you'll be successful. If your parents are poor, you will not."
The difference starts with parenting.
A rich kid touches a hot stove. The parent says: "You made a mistake. Don't worry about it. Let me explain why fire is dangerous. You could burn yourself. We'd have to go to the doctor."
A poor kid touches a hot stove. The parent says: "Don't you ever do that again or I'll beat the crap out of you."
Same lesson. Completely different worldview.
The rich kid learns: the world is safe. I am respected. Adults explain things to me.
The poor kid learns: the world is scary. I must fear authority. Don't ask questions.
There's another difference. Rich parents keep promises. Poor parents can't.
"Next week we'll go to Thailand." Next week, you go to Thailand.
"Next week we'll go to McDonald's." But the paycheck isn't enough. "Sorry, we can't go anymore."
Rich parents offer stability. Poor parents can only offer volatility.
Now go back to the marshmallow test.
"If you believe the teacher will keep his promise, you won't eat that marshmallow. If you think the teacher is lying, you will eat it."
If you're a poor kid, you've learned that promises get broken. Adults lie. The second marshmallow probably isn't coming.
So you eat the first one. That's not lack of self-control. That's rational decision-making.
"Poor kids are not stupid. Poor kids are rational. They're responding to the circumstances they live in."
The same logic applies to resilience.
"The idea of resilience is that you believe the world will help you. If you're rich and you fail, someone will help you get up. If you're poor and you fail, that probably tells you that you shouldn't be doing this."
Why try again when trying again has never worked?
And self-assessment? "If you're a poor child who lives under a lot of stress, it's hard to be self-reflective. Because if you look back at yourself, all you think about is your pain and your stress."
Here's the deeper structure.
"As a poor person, if you want to survive, you have to obey authority. As a rich person, you maximize your outcome by negotiating with others."
Poor parents command their children because that's what the world will demand. Obey the police. Obey the boss. Don't talk back.
Rich parents teach their children to debate, argue, negotiate. Because that's their game.
"From day one, rich kids know they're playing a different game."
Here's something stranger.
500 students took an IQ test. Then they guessed their ranking.
The top 5% thought they were top 20%. The test was easy for them, so they assumed it was easy for everyone.
The bottom 5% thought they were average.
"People who are stupid lack the capacity to know they're stupid."
This is the Dunning-Kruger effect. And it explains why the most confident people are often the least competent.
"This helps explain why the world is why it is. Often the people in power are stupid. They don't know they're stupid. They were confident."
Can poor kids escape?
"Yes. But it means leaving your community. You have to be extremely individualistic. Very ambitious. High risk tolerance. Most people don't have that."
The professor is one of them.
"I'm a poor kid who succeeded. My father was a dishwasher. But I left Canada for the United States. I got lucky."
"You can work as hard as you want, but the chances are against you. It takes luck. And that's often the exception to the rule, not the rule itself."
Here's what he wants you to understand:
When we see differences in success, our default explanation is differences in ability or effort.
We forget that a poor kid eating the marshmallow isn't weak. He's learned that waiting doesn't pay.
We forget that a poor kid giving up isn't lazy. He's learned that no one's coming to help.
We refuse to admit that the traits we associate with success are products of environment, not causes of it.
The marshmallow test is about measuring childhood, not measuring character.
Conor Neill: "Why smart people stay broke"
"Took me a few years growing up to really learn this. In school, I did quite well in exams just through intelligence without having to do a lot of work. When I was young, I valued intelligence over action."
He explains the trap smart people fall into:
"One of the dangers for smart people, the smarter you are, the better your excuses. The more accomplished you are at talking yourself out of taking action. At proving to yourself that every action you could take is too small, too meaningless, and not worth it."
Neill shares a quote from George Leonard, who brought jiu-jitsu from Japan to the US:
"You cannot do everything. But you can do one thing. And another. And another. That's the way you make massive progress in life. Doing one thing and another and another."
On his own YouTube channel:
"Very often I sit down and think, these ideas aren't particularly deep or wise. But what makes this channel grow? What makes you come and connect? I guess the ideas aren't terrible. But I show up, and I share them.
The fact that you show up and try and act, week after week, month after month, year after year, with a little bit of intelligence, you start to get better and better. You start to become more articulate."
He emphasizes:
"Even if the action is poor action, you're going to learn something from it. It's so easy to talk yourself out of action. But life rewards action, not intelligence. Not smarts in your brain, but action into the world."
On discipline and measurement:
"Until you measure something that matters, you do not know if you're disciplined."
Neill shares a personal story:
"My mentor would ask me to do some writing. Just write a few technical notes. Months passed. Years passed. I just wasn't making progress. So I hired a writing coach. For one year, I had a call every Wednesday. Every call would begin with him asking one question: how many words did you write this week?"
The results were brutal:
"He pushed me to measure how many words I wrote each day. Each week. Early on, it was very painful. It felt like I was putting a lot of energy into writing. But the actual number of words being produced. day after day, week after week, was very low."
The realization:
"It was only when I really got this measure, and made sure I looked at it each morning, each evening, each week, that I started to realize: so much of the effort was in my head and not turning into words on a page."
Neill warns:
"Be very careful in evaluating your discipline by whether you feel like you're making an effort. Because your mind will cheat you into believing you're being really busy. You're putting in a lot of effort.
For me, it was brutal. The feeling in me was that I was putting a lot of time and energy into writing. But those early weeks, seeing that it resulted in so few words being written, that was the truth."
He concludes:
"Everything good in life happens when you're off the sofa and engaging with the world. Find a measure of something that matters. Pay attention to whether you're making progress on the actions that lead to that measure. Value action above thinking, or intending to take action."
@airindia it was great speaking with skilled customer service person from Air India the other day. Tanzeel, thank you for helping regarding my concerns of seating for upcoming travel on Air India.
When I ask a gardner why his plants grew so beautifully...The gardner said "I don't force them to grow,I just remove what stops them"
Likewise, shed your bad habits and you will see best of everything... be it your career, your relationships or your own Personality!!