Badger Bracketology

#wisfb Playoff projections, odds, analysis, and more. wihssfan on BadgerStateBoards message board

[Badger Bracketology @BadgerBrackets]

Welcome to Badger Bracketology! Home of #wisfb playoff projections, odds, analysis and much more. You may have seen me on BadgerStateBoards message board under wihssfan. This will provide even more detailed analysis, of every team and every conference in the state. More to come!

[Badger Bracketology @BadgerBrackets]

@HeartONorthGuy1 Oof. With how healthy Northwestern's program is right now, I wonder how'd they fare in the Big Rivers, despite the massive enrollment differences. I know they'd be just fine in the Middle Border and would compete for league titles there.

[Badger Bracketology @BadgerBrackets]

@coachlavoy Here is what @TravisBOUND said about the situation a few weeks ago.

[Badger Bracketology @BadgerBrackets]

@Meules37 Yup, it can certainly happen still. But can change a lot week to week. If those MPS teams end up as a 3,5, and 8 seed, it becomes a moot point and doesn't matter too much where they end up on the bracket

[Badger Bracketology @BadgerBrackets]

Post Week 2 Division 1 Playoff Update #wisfb

The biggest story in D1 has been Franklin's struggles to begin the year, scoring just 17 points in 2 weeks while going 0-2, with a gauntlet of a schedule incoming. Franklin came in as the preseason number 3 team in Division 1, and now just two weeks in will have an uphill battle to get to the postseason.

Marquette picked up a massive OT win over Bradford, who will win a lot of games in the Southeast Conference. Riverside looks like they could contend in the City-Richardson this year after beating a non-MPS team this week. Indian Trail and Oconomowoc picked up some huge wins over the 2 favorites in the Big Eight to give themselves some breathing room off of the bubble.

West De Pere appears to not have taken a step back after a D2 title last year, and have set themselves up to be in good shape for a 1 seed, even if Bay Port is still the favorite there. Their rival, De Pere, could have something to say about that themselves as they play this week at De Pere.

[Badger Bracketology @BadgerBrackets]

I believe so. Only difference is that Big East teams got a forfeit win over the non-existent Ozaukee team last year. This year, Midwest Classic teams just have an open date on weeks where Kenosha Christian Life would've been, so no freebie win, but can still schedule a game against other teams looking for a replacement (like Cudahy playing Pacelli this coming week)

[Badger Bracketology @BadgerBrackets]

It's hard to avoid it. There's 3 big gripes that people usually have no matter what the what playoff rules are

1. Travel
2. Unbalanced groups
3. Rematches

It's impossible to avoid all 3. I think the matrix does a better job of it rather than the old format. Certain conferences used to always all be grouped together, this at least can spread them out to separate groups. Like last year, Muskego Arrowhead Mukwonago and Franklin were in 4 separate groups. That would've never happened under old rules

[Badger Bracketology @BadgerBrackets]

Geography still does matter, just not as much as it used to. Teams are now seeded first, and then placed into groups.
Up until 2025, teams used to be grouped first, and then seeded, which ended up creating some very unbalanced groups. Main example is Oconomowoc going 8-1 and winning the C8 in 2024 and receiving a 6 seed.
There used to be teams receiving 6 or 7 seeds that would've been a 2 or 3 seed in a different group.

[Badger Bracketology @BadgerBrackets]

Post Week 2 Division 7 Playoff Update #wisfb

Glenwood City snagged a nice win over a much larger Turner turn, who is in D4, and it looks like they're ready to battle Boyceville for the Dunn-St. Croix crown. Black Hawk/Warren suffered a loss to a strong team from IL, but the rest of the Six Rivers picked up some nice wins, therefore increasing their Tier 2 points potential.
We saw some big early bubble games, with Colfax taking down Eleva-Strum and Pecatonica/Argyle taking down Waterloo. Riverdale also scored a nice win over Hillsboro, who was also near the bubble.

[Badger Bracketology @BadgerBrackets]

@LambeerBill2 If you don't understand what you're looking, just say so

[Badger Bracketology @BadgerBrackets]

This isn't based on current points, since that doesn't give an accurate outlook of what's to come. There's a hell of lot more that goes into this rather than just looking at the current matrix standings off of Lavoy's site. The projected brackets are based off of the average PQS score for each team off of 10,000 full season simulations

[Badger Bracketology @BadgerBrackets]

This isn't based on current points, since that doesn't give an accurate outlook of what's to come. There's a hell of lot more that goes into this rather than just looking at the current matrix standings off of Lavoy's site. The projected brackets are based off of the average PQS score for each team off of 10,000 full season simulations

[Badger Bracketology @BadgerBrackets]

The season simulator is based off of running 10,000 season simulations, with power ratings built in for each team, which creates odds for each and every game. Each sim stores PQS rankings, seeds, playoff results, etc. I'll be sharing as much data as I can about that.

[Badger Bracketology @BadgerBrackets]

Post Week 2 Division 6 Playoff Update #wisfb

Mondovi looks like they are here to stay, taking down D4 number 4 ranked Osceola in a shootout. The Cloverbelt will be fun to watch this year, with Regis and Fall Creek wanting a piece of Mondovi. Mondovi also has a week 4 crossover game against Edgar.

There was a lot of movement around the bubble and for teams increasing or decreasing their playoff odds. It figures to be a very competitive playoff bubble as it was last year in D6, with many 4 win teams and even some 5 win teams missing the playoffs. The margin of error will be very slim.

[Badger Bracketology @BadgerBrackets]

Both would have over 99.0% odds of being a 1 seed, but not all the way to 100%. If either the C8 or the GMC dominate the week 3 and 4 crossovers against each other, then the opposite conference winner could maybeeee fall down to a 2 seed, but would still be very unlikely.

Arrowhead with average PQS score of 32.95, Hamilton with 32.50. Bay Port still would be projected as number 1 overall, with Arrowhead and Hamilton as number 2 and number 3 overall, taking the 1 seeds on the right half of the bracket. Verona as the 2 seed with Arrowhead, Muskego as the 2 with Hamilton.

[Badger Bracketology @BadgerBrackets]

Post Week 2 Division 5 Playoff Update #wisfb

The top teams in D5 have already started to emerge, with 3 teams all with 89% or greater odds for a 1 seed already (Darlington, Lake Country Lutheran, Racine Lutheran). All 3 have picked up some impressive wins and will look to dominate in their respective conferences. Columbus is off to an 0-2 start and things do not get much easier in the Capitol. Huge test against Lodi this week when they look to avoid falling to 0-3.
The bubble is shaping up to be pretty wide open and I'd expect it'll change quite a bit from week to week as there's still a lot of uncertainty with teams around it.

[Badger Bracketology @BadgerBrackets]

Post Week 2 Division 4 Playoff Update #wisfb

D4 didn't see many super super surprising results, so there's a limited amount of teams that saw their odds change drastically.
Denmark has picked up 2 wins, which is huge for them with how difficult the NEC will be.
A few Middle Border teams find themselves right on the bubble, and it's hard to gauge a pecking order in the middle of that conference right now.
Little Chute and Freedom continue to look very very impressive with more dominating victories.
Stratford grinded out a win over their rival, Edgar.

[Badger Bracketology @BadgerBrackets]

Post Week 2 Division 3 Playoff Update #wisfb

The highlight of the week in D3 was Port Washington's statement win over Mt. Horeb/Barneveld, and have essentially swapped places as of the result.
We also see the Parkland holding onto 3 of the 4 1 seeds, although that likely won't hold at the end of the day. Eisenhower has picked up some important non-con wins that will help their tier 2 points, but they'll still have some battles in conference play.
Teams like South Milwaukee and Milwaukee Lutheran have performed well over non-con and now there is a door open in the Woodland for one of them to sneak in.
Waupaca looks to be in a rough spot after initially thinking they could bounce back a bit this year.

[Dan Barwick @Barwickipedia]

The WISFB Wrap Around is back for Week 2! Watch/listen to @DoolMasterD and I as we go around the state talking about the big games and performances! #wisfb #hsswi

https://t.co/8FDPwEdc9C

[Badger Bracketology @BadgerBrackets]

Post Week 2 Division 2 Playoff Update #wisfb

The Southern Lakes had a very good week 2 to help out the playoff odds for many teams. Union Grove had a convincing win over a very good Whitefish Bay team, Westosha Central shocked Wisconsin Lutheran and ended their 14 game losing streak. Burlington took care of business, going 2-0 in non-conference, and Elkhorn did as well, beating Cedarburg in convincing fashion.
Brookfield Central also had a massive win over Waukesha West. Wins will be hard to find throughout the year playing in the GMC plus 2 C8 crossovers, so this was massive for them.
The Big Rivers struggled more than expected in the non-conference, with Menomonie, River Falls, and Rice Lake all going 0-2 against the WVC. All 3 are squarely on the bubble now and are not used to missing the playoffs, Rice Lake and Menomonie especially.
West Allis Hale lost to an MPS school, which is never a great sign for what is to come, even while playing in a weaker conference. It's been a tumultuous start to the season, and I'm sure the off the field distractions about the program have not helped.
Milton has struggled to get going and now will have to pick things up in Badger-Large play if they hope to make the postseason. The middle of that conference is wide open, so games against DeForest, Sun Prairie West, and Oregon will ultimately decide if they make it or not.

[Badger Bracketology @BadgerBrackets]

@V22158Boyz @TravisBOUND @coachlavoy https://t.co/ChUwoMUvT2
@Captain_Joe08 compiled the conference winning % thru 2 weeks on the BadgerState forum. Check it out with this link.

[Coach Andy LaVoy @coachlavoy]

Week 2 Standings are up!

https://t.co/R0C6OACYu2