Baiju Jacob

Improving healthcare. Opinions expressed here are my own. Follows & RTs ≠ endorsements. Philly sports phan in perpetual recovery … Hanging here for the memes!

[Philadelphia Eagles @Eagles]

SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!
THIS ONE’S FOR YOU PHILLY!

[Baiju Jacob @Baiju_Jacob]

Go Eagles - Super Bowl LIX. Well deserved win …

[Baiju Jacob @Baiju_Jacob]

What a day - 2 more minutes to claim the Super Bowl again! #FlyEaglesFly

[Baiju Jacob @Baiju_Jacob]

@Grady_Booch @annwitbrock Frequent usage of software patterns should be encouraged …

[Mark Zandi @Markzandi]

I’ve hesitated to say this at the risk of sounding hyperbolic, but with last week’s big GDP revisions, there is no denying it: This is among the best performing economies in my 35+ years as an economist. Economic growth is rip-roaring, with real GDP up 3% over the past year. Unemployment is low at near 4%, consistent with full employment. Inflation is fast closing in on Fed’s 2% target - grocery prices, rents and gas prices are flat to down over the past more than a year. Households’ financial obligations are light, and set to get lighter with the Fed cutting rates. House prices have never been higher, and most homeowners have more equity in their homes than ever. Corporate profits are robust, and the stock market is hitting a record high on a seemingly daily basis. Of course there are blemishes, as lower-income households are struggling financially, there is a severe shortage of affordable homes, and the government is running large budget deficits. And things could change quickly. There are plenty of threats. But in my time as an economist, the economy has rarely looked better.

[Baiju Jacob @Baiju_Jacob]

@stevesi Wow! Comdex brings back some great memories.

[Baiju Jacob @Baiju_Jacob]

@chrissyfarr Over time it can get there, with enough supervised experimentation, quality data at granular levels and transparent models with EBM. But medical liability is a drag on any AI-first clinical approach. AI-assistive clinical workflows to improve efficiency could see faster adoption.

[Baiju Jacob @Baiju_Jacob]

Great 🧵for travelers trying to decipher cryptic flight delay announcements. Helps you cope, when those delays are caused by “biological” incidents on incoming flights! 😭

[KC-10 Driver ✈️ 👨‍✈️ B-737 Wrangler @MCCCANM]

A common misconception is that airlines over-schedule flights, or intentionally schedule flights they can’t staff

Not true

In fact, airlines schedule to FAA defined capacity limits at airports – the rate of departures & arrivals the FAA says an airport can handle in an hour. Here’s the general rates for US airports:

https://t.co/8CzoQcRXdZ

There’s a little wriggle room in these rates for contingency; they use historical data, formulas & models to build them

(more detail on how:
https://t.co/kBRUx2o1dl)

Problems start when the rates can’t be met – due to weather, understaffing or unplanned runway closure, etc – & the resulting delays ripple across the system. These delays cascade, leading to delays for flights that don’t even touch the airports w/ problems & even to flights the next day, long after a problem is resolved

When combined w/ strict DOT rules on what airlines can attribute delays to, it’s part of the reason airline explanations for delays & cancelations don’t always make sense, or are vague…leading to misconceptions

Most will be “late aircraft”, “weather” or “earlier delay”…because DOT says we can’t say “ATC delayed us 3 hours on the last flight, so now both the jet & crews are late”. DOT doesn’t allow airlines to report root causes, only a snapshot of YOUR flight

Since I’m currently sitting on a 2.5 hour ATC delay into SFO, I’ve got some time to give an example…

The general rate at SFO is 70-107, depending on weather. Clear skies is 107, marginal 85, bad 78

https://t.co/vFu8dTv9Cv

FAA updates these rates in advance when changes are planned…like a runway closure for construction at SFO, happening now

The airlines take the new projected rate, split it up, plan schedules months in advance & sell tickets

On the day of these flights, FAA is dynamically updating the rates, sometimes hourly. The FAA then tells airlines how many they can *actually* squeeze in during a given hour

If nothing is happening, there isn’t much change. If something isn’t working – for a variety of reasons – the FAA uses a “Traffic Management Initiative” (TMI) to limit how many airplanes can come in. We’ll use my delay as an example - see the picture

(you can check for current TMIs here: https://t.co/5td1QHNcS1)

In this case, the FAA knew there would be runway construction, so projected rates were reduced & schedules built. In the real world today, though, the reduced projected rates aren’t working & they need new, lower rates

(I don’t know the projected rate they gave airlines, but my guess is 50ish)

So the FAA has introduced a “Ground Delay Program” (GDP) as its TMI solution. The GDP forces the new rates – in the picture, look at the “Program Rate” to see what the new hourly arrival rates are (28-30…about a 40% reduction from my guess of the planned rates)

(you can also see the maximum [173] & average [101] delays in minutes they expect to generate. At 150, I’m unfortunately near the maximum)

A GDP grounds inbound jets at other airports to slow arrivals at SFO & meet new rates. How long they ground each & how it gets distributed is too complicated for this overview, but each is given an “Estimated Departure Clearance Time” (EDCT). It’s the time the FAA says you can take off & head to SFO

(You can check for EDCTs here: https://t.co/3GIxnQbFUU)

So, airlines start delaying flights. They’re reluctant to do so, as a GDP & EDCT could possibly be reduced. If so & they told you not to show up until later, they’ve screwed themselves & you, too. As we get closer, they’ll start telling you; dynamic changes to EDCT may result in multiple extensions to the delay

Tonight’s delay gets attributed to ATC. The flight my FAs were to operate after this & now can’t, though, is due to “airline”. The flight this jet was turning to is “late aircraft” (also an airline delay – it’s complicated)

Anyway, a VERY broad view of how this works & that’s all my space!

(We arrived 2+52 late – approach slowed us down for more spacing)

[Baiju Jacob @Baiju_Jacob]

Fascinating images unearthed in Pompeii brought back memories of walking among the ruins of a magnificent city that was destroyed centuries ago.

[The New York Times @nytimes]

Archaeologists working at the ancient site of Pompeii unveiled their latest find on Thursday: a formal dining room. It's part of an insula, the equivalent of a city block, that has been excavated, offering fresh understanding about how the residents lived. https://t.co/um6qD2Z5Wl

[Baiju Jacob @Baiju_Jacob]

This week at Next: it’s raining GenAI. One question today: Can you use GenAI to measure the value of GenAI?

[Baiju Jacob @Baiju_Jacob]

A welcome return to sanity by switching back to the Following tab after trying the other view. I won’t miss that roller coaster experience designed to keep you suspended in a state of perpetual incredulity as you wade through a stream of gaslighting posts hijacking your TL …

[Baiju Jacob @Baiju_Jacob]

Great win Chiefs. Kudos to Andy, Mahomes and Kelce!

[Baiju Jacob @Baiju_Jacob]

@Grady_Booch Despite the millions spent modernizing these programs, decades later, it still boils down to cranking up the last two mainframe technologies during tax season …

[Baiju Jacob @Baiju_Jacob]

Say hello to the landline edition of FaceTime circa 1992!

[Evan Kirstel #B2B #TechFluencer @EvanKirstel]

In 1992, AT&T debuted its video phone, transmitting audio and color video at 10 fps over regular phone lines. Priced like today's $3,300, it required both callers to have the same model but was discontinued due to low demand. #TechHistory #Video #ATT #CES2024

[Baiju Jacob @Baiju_Jacob]

@Grady_Booch ++ Platforms and algorithms amplifying toxic & degrading discourse to monetize engagement disincentivizes most thoughtful dialog.

[Baiju Jacob @Baiju_Jacob]

@Grady_Booch Similar experience here …
Trusting that rational journalists haven’t resigned to the hopelessness of trying to engage constructively on social media given the incessant harassment and vitriolic at a global scale by un (ill, dis) informed users & shrill partisans.

[Baiju Jacob @Baiju_Jacob]

@N_Brennan Brilliant! Nothing like visualizing 💩 trends!

[Baiju Jacob @Baiju_Jacob]

The weekly routine of a typical Philly Sports fan.

[Philadelphia Eagles @Eagles]

We know about your memes but in Kelly Green

[Baiju Jacob @Baiju_Jacob]

Congrats to AUS for the win today. Does not take away from a fantastic run to the Finals by the talented Indian team - best of luck for the next World Cup! #INDvsAUS

[Baiju Jacob @Baiju_Jacob]

As the pace of AI adoption increases, payers need proper governance and guardrails to ensure their AI programs are transparent and trustworthy. The @statnews reporting of controversial algorithm driven care coverage decisions @UHC despite a mature AI program is a cautionary tale.