Sam

Web Developer | Ex-Reporting Analyst | Commodity Investor |

[Goshawk Trades @GoshawkTrades]

jane street, the quant firm with a reported $39.6 bn in trading revenue in 2025, built its own card game to teach trading.

it's called figgie. four minutes to read the other players, work out what the cards are worth and decide what you're willing to pay.

here's one example of what they're teaching: a trader bids 3 chips for a card he's happy to buy at 6.

two of its traders explain why.

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

🚨 Never forget…

Your whole idea of buying every dip through ETF and chill is a 13-year illusion.

100 years of S&P 500 real returns, split into regimes:

– 1928-1948: 0.6% a year
– 1949-1968: 12.7%
– 1969-1984: 0.5%
– 1985-1999: 15.1%
– 2000-2012: -0.8%
– 2013-2025: 11.8%

Notice the rhythm. A golden era, then a dead one.

Feast, famine, feast, famine.

Not one regime in a century simply continued.

The long-term average of 7% real that everyone plans with? Almost no generation actually experienced it. You got 12%, or you got zero.

The average is a fiction made of two extremes.

Everyone who started investing after 2009 has only known the feast. Buy the dip worked every single time. Not because it's a law. Because you happened to live inside the blue bar.

But the current run is already as long and as rich as the two golden eras before it. And every one of them ended the same way: not with a warning, with a decade.

Mean reversion doesn't announce itself. It just stops paying.

The next 0.5% decade will feel impossible right up until it starts. It always has.

[JeRRy MMXM @JeRRyMMXM]

Years Ago, I Emailed ICT Asking:

“HOW DO I KNOW WHEN A FAIR VALUE GAP SHOULDN’T CLOSE IN?”

Then I stumbled upon this ICT video:

Signatures in Anticipating A Breakaway Gap.

If you trade FVGs & IFVGs, this might be your HOLY GRAIL video.

Man, I wish I found this earlier.

[Sam @BalemoWebDesign]

@cjoye Pretty insane to think Australia hasn’t had a 10% decline before just shows how corrupted the governments have been to push prices to insane levels

[Sam @BalemoWebDesign]

@AlexMasonCrypto lol. Completely false

[Sam @BalemoWebDesign]

@USEquityManager @Crashman_X Pure corruption

[Ethan Kho @ethanrkho]

A trader who’s compounded at 60% a year with a Sortino over 2 on why he refuses to compete with the pods on their timeframe:

Joe Walsh is the Founding Partner of hedge fund Code Partners.

Joe Walsh explains:

“The first thing I think about is time horizon.”

“I don’t want to be valuing a security on a three to six month timeframe where I’m competing against a very well-resourced, motivated person inside one of these firms with way better corporate access, way better short-term information, proprietary data sets.”

“You’ve got to pick your time horizons to be avoiding very good players. You’ve got to pick your sectors where all the pods who used to do that have been shut down and all the investors have given up.”

“The game selection aspect is running away from competition, and that’s where greater inefficiency by definition lives. There are huge pockets of that in the equity market today.”

“If you think you’re going to have a huge edge trading European industrials on a three-month timeframe, I would politely disagree.”

“We have huge edge in timeframes greater than 12 months, in sectors and markets that are just not as competitive. It’s not worth their time, when they’re running $100 billion levered multiple times, to muck around in names with $10, 20, 30 million a day of liquidity.”

“The capacity I could run money with is very attractive, to single digit billions, and still have a huge edge and still remain very liquid.”

[墓碑科技 @mubeitech]

德国 DW 电视台拍过一部关于巴黎郊区移民的纪录片。
镜头对准了生活在同一片区域的两个群体。

一边是大约七万人的法国华人。
在巴黎北郊的欧贝维利耶，他们建起了欧洲最大的服装批发中心。
这批人的生活方式很简单：
起早贪黑，开小作坊、看店、跑货运。
赚了钱继续投入生意，遇到难处自己想办法扛。
平时低调安静，很少向政府伸手要特殊补贴，也不上街制造混乱。
几十年下来，越来越多家庭买了房，把生意做了起来。

另一边，是同样生活在这片街区的北非移民群体。
从整体上看，他们在当地的经济融入相对滞后。
但纪录片捕捉到了一个细微却现实的心态变化：
一种把自食其力者视作威胁的情绪，正在悄悄蔓延。

按片子里的观察，
一些融入受挫的人，习惯以受害者自居，觉得社会欠自己太多。
可当他们转头看到身旁的华人时，心态变了。
他们不仅没有去学怎么做生意，反而把华人当成了竞争对手。

这种敌意到底从何而来？

最现实的冲突在于：华人的日子越过越好，受害者叙事就越难自圆其说。
大家同样是外来者，同样面对异国他乡的壁垒。
甚至华人刚来的时候连法语都不会讲，更谈不上本地人脉。
如果有人靠一天干十几个小时，能把日子一点点撑起来，
那句“我们过不好全怪外界不公”，就很难再理直气壮地说出口。

一个闷头自立的人，往往会让习惯归咎环境的人感到刺眼。

更深层的错位在于对财富的理解。
在很多索取者的认知里，财富是一块固定死的大饼。
他们看不到那些批发店是怎样一箱一箱货物搬出来的，
只觉得华人的店铺赚到了钱，就是占了自己的便宜。

再加上华人素来习惯忍让，遇到纠纷往往选择息事宁人，
这种心态上的失衡，很快就落成了现实中的治安麻烦。
抢劫、尾随、街头袭击，接二连三指向这群只想安分过日子的人。

靠双手养活自己、靠信誉积累财富，放在任何健全的社会都是最基本的尊严。
但如果一个地方习惯了把受害者身份当成通行的筹码，
那个默默把日子过好的人，
往往最先成为被针对的对象。

[Sam 🇦🇺🇺🇦 @samstrades]

'New Zealand house prices crash back to 2017, prices have fallen nearly 30%' (if this happened here, prices going back to 2017 levels, would equal 40%-50% crash) #ausbiz #housing
https://t.co/adbUq73Wgm

[LuxAlgo @LuxAlgo]

Vela, our next-gen charting platform, now supports auto-drawing advanced technical analysis.

Watch Quant's cursor mark up the chart for you.

Live for everyone on https://t.co/likk7HZvMm

[Sam @BalemoWebDesign]

@bot3685 Kind of ironically showing most of these jobs aren’t skilled

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

The S&P 500 closed above 7,800 today for the first time, hitting its 28th all-time high of the year.

Video: https://t.co/nBvm2ad9IJ

[Charles Curran @charliebcurran]

If you think AI film can’t be art then explain this.

[Jadoodoo 🍑 @jadoodoo]

-$15,000. Short liquidated.
People warned me not to post this, saying you'd lose respect for me.

But I want to show you the real me, not just the wins.
In trading, you win and you lose, over and over.

Anyone who says they always make big money trading is lying.

[Steve Hanke @steve_hanke]

Commodity market guru Jeff Currie on how the global energy crisis is about to get EVEN WORSE:

“Did the Europeans ever refill their storage of gas going into this winter? Nope, they’re super far behind. So what do you think is going to happen come November?… You have diesel [prices] already at record levels… We’re going to run into very severe shortages on a global basis.”

STAY LONG DIESEL AND NATURAL GAS.

[Don Durrett - goldstockdata.com @DonDurrett]

S&P 500. 😳

[Sam @BalemoWebDesign]

@KairoClip Why those Zionist biggest insult is to call the guy the N word?

[Sam @BalemoWebDesign]

@shravanrayhaan @grok @BULLReturns Nothing

[Graphic Perspective @GPerspective_X]

@DonDurrett

[Drew Pavlou 🇦🇺🇺🇸🇫🇷🇺🇦🇹🇼 @DrewPavlou]

I’m fucking crying bro her dad was a Sudanese warlord who abducted hundreds of child soldiers. Dozens of them died of starvation according to this report by Human Rights Watch

She was posting pics of her Dad on Instagram this week

You could not even make this up

Reality has outpaced satire, we are in a simulation.