Leo Ballerio

[Leo Ballerio @BallerioLeo]

@whispering_tea @sbattrawden Can you guarantee in writing that there are no long term side effects from getting covid, especially in children?

[Leo Ballerio @BallerioLeo]

@FETrustnet What's going on with your portfolio, tools & contact us pages? It's taking each page 60-75 seconds to load, if it doesn't time out, for 24 hours now. Same problem using different browsers and devices. Investments & news tabs are fine. Are you aware of an issue?

[Leo Ballerio @BallerioLeo]

@peterpham @EricTopol UK: Third wave in progress, driven by unvaccinated. Prevalence in over 50, double vaccinated, unchanged. Prevalence in 5-24 year olds, unvaccinated, up 250% in 2 weeks.

[Leo Ballerio @BallerioLeo]

@OpinionCovid Of course, it helps being married to the government's anti-corruption tsar...

[Leo Ballerio @BallerioLeo]

@OpinionCovid Well this crony government doesn't have a problem promoting the demonstrably incompetent. Mates are mates, what what!!

[Leo Ballerio @BallerioLeo]

NHS waiting list approaching 5 million. Ah but it's to be expected with Covid, no? Well no, not really. Labour restored NHS funding to the OECD average, waiting times halved. The Tories took over in 2010, and the data speaks for itself.

[Leo Ballerio @BallerioLeo]

@OpinionCovid Maybe she's not cut out to be a Conservative Government Minister. Must try harder.

[Leo Ballerio @BallerioLeo]

@OpinionCovid Ah yes. I take your point.

[Leo Ballerio @BallerioLeo]

@OpinionCovid UK exports to non-EU countries dropped by 11%. That's the extent of the Covid effect. The rest is down to Brexit.

[Leo Ballerio @BallerioLeo]

@OpinionCovid How very presidential

[Leo Ballerio @BallerioLeo]

@OpinionCovid @Kit_Yates_Maths @NickTriggle This is my first proper debate on Twitter. I'll quit whilst I'm ahead. 😀

[Leo Ballerio @BallerioLeo]

@OpinionCovid @Kit_Yates_Maths @NickTriggle Using following assumptions:
Sp = 0.997
Sn = 0.768
Prev = 0.003 (<2/3 less than 2 wks ago & good baseline assumption long term)
Pre-test probability for LFT using PPV is 0.43, down from 0.997, but still pretty good, as a cutoff point to quarantine for a couple of weeks.

[Leo Ballerio @BallerioLeo]

@OpinionCovid @Kit_Yates_Maths @NickTriggle Not meaningless, unsophisticated perhaps, and I take the point made by others about low prevalence. So I'll have a go:

[Leo Ballerio @BallerioLeo]

@spion @Kit_Yates_Maths @NickTriggle Except we are talking about a positive LFT test, not a negative one.

[Leo Ballerio @BallerioLeo]

@spion @Kit_Yates_Maths @NickTriggle So the 71% false negative rate for PCR was determined in a population where there was high index of suspicion of the patient being covid positive. I would argue that a positive LFT test yields a similar population. Which then goes on to have a PCR test.

[Leo Ballerio @BallerioLeo]

@spion @Kit_Yates_Maths @NickTriggle And?