Barry Bannister

Investment Strategy for a broker

[Barry Bannister @BannisterBB]

For whom the bell tolls…

[Barry Bannister @BannisterBB]

Regarding that earlier post of the awful death of Charlie, actual videos are rare due to censorship. I did it because people need to SEE the horror of Domestic Terrorism. Jacobin/Red Guard radicals are an apostasy, and nobody learns if everything that is upsetting is censored.

[Barry Bannister @BannisterBB]

I don’t like doom posting but media cuts off the video of this awful Charlie Kirk story. I found the full video on an overseas network, screen recorded it, cropped the video. Not “AI.” I don’t even know how to do AI. Charlie hit in a major neck vein, maybe Carotid or Jugular.

[Barry Bannister @BannisterBB]

@biancoresearch The “real time” data from Indeed and Linkup had already showed signs of a leveling out for job openings. Also (and I haven’t updated this chart yet) JOLTS just popped up today to catch up to those ~weekly indicators.

[Barry Bannister @BannisterBB]

@elonmusk In fiat (not backed by anything tangible, e.g., gold) money systems the government cannot “go broke.” The central bank (Fed) is always the buyer of last resort. The sole risk is inflation from the excess of demand (which is caused by fiscal deficits) affecting the interest cost.

[Barry Bannister @BannisterBB]

Way too much worry out there about U.S. goods inflation outlook due to trade war; China’s bargaining position is weak. China is in poor shape, deflating, and I doubt they will have any meaningful or lasting effect on U.S. inflation through the goods channel.

[Barry Bannister @BannisterBB]

@NorthstarCharts So what? Gold was overbought (65-day fractal based on Mandelbrot already told us that), gold corrected, and since your post bounced. It’s still in an uptrend even at $2,984. It is pointless to highlight a pull-back. The only thing that matters is direction and the reason(s).

[Barry Bannister @BannisterBB]

@greg_ip In 1993, Greenspan offered his resignation to incoming President Bill Clinton (widely sourced). In 2009, Bernanke offered his resignation to President Obama (widely sourced). It is odd to me how executive succession tradition is completely overlooked today.

[Barry Bannister @BannisterBB]

@NickTimiraos In 1993, Greenspan offered his resignation to incoming President Bill Clinton (widely sourced). In 2009, Bernanke offered his resignation to President Obama (widely sourced).

But I would EXPECT the “Never Trump Wall Street Journal” to casually overlook both facts and tradition.

[Barry Bannister @BannisterBB]

The entire 10Y yield move up has been Powell saying “no cuts.” You’ll never hear that in the financial press. 10Y has two parts: 10Y Breakeven (moves lock-step with oil, which is down) and 10Y TIPS rising (0.95 r2 for 27 yrs w/36M Fed Futures minus 10Y Breakeven). It’s Powell.

[Barry Bannister @BannisterBB]

A tariff is a VAT. U.S spends a primary deficit >4% of GDP above PEAK Federal revenue % of GDP of 18% (the past 25y). Critics were vocal about income-based tax deficiencies, favoring a VAT. Now they are vocally critical of the tariffs. Do they even hear themselves speaking?

[Barry Bannister @BannisterBB]

@Geo_papic Don is already at Step (3) in your schematic. Literally. Every. Speech. (Street didn’t listen) was Step (1). Mexico & Canada were Step (2) ‘cause if he’s willing to whip out Big Button on USMCA “partners” imagine what he’ll do to Europeans! The Rose Garden speech was Step (3).

[Barry Bannister @BannisterBB]

@biancoresearch No, 10Y TIPS = 36M Fed futures minus 10Y breakeven. Now says 1.5% TIPS in recession. 36M futures & curve steepness can be estimated for recessions. 10Y breakeven at recession oil $55-60 is 2%. We will see 3.50% 10YY in a recession. Figure MBS spread 2% that’s 30Y 5.5% mortgage.

[Barry Bannister @BannisterBB]

@elonmusk That’s what happened with Covid. Use a “crisis” to substantially expand government spending, then root around trying to find the money to pay for it. Entitlements + Interest + “Income Security” now about equal Federal “revenues.” The definition of un-sustainable.

[Barry Bannister @BannisterBB]

@BobEUnlimited And what part of that is bad, Bob? Fear of unemployment is the best motivator for productivity. It works in capitalism. Federal productivity is about to go way up.

[Barry Bannister @BannisterBB]

@PeterBerezinBCA If I were advising Bessent I’d say revalue the gold (+900B$), stick it in the Exchange Stabilization Fund (his sole authority to use), use Fed to warehouse currencies (also legislated) and not put it in the TGA (Congress has power there), leverage it and use it for FX war.

[Barry Bannister @BannisterBB]

@biancoresearch Trump is 78, on a life-long mission (fair trade), and there’s not enough R’s to over-ride a veto on trade powers. He only uses executive power. Modified TCJA is only way he needs Congress and they’ll pass it since it’s suicide not to. Analysts mis-read Don from Day 1. We didn’t.

[Barry Bannister @BannisterBB]

@PeterBerezinBCA Opening artillery isn’t a policy position. It’s a punch in the mouth (Marko step 3). If the world didn’t need U.S. to absorb XS savings to survive they’d shrug.

The carping tells us the bombardment hit the mark. I have no problem buying a 45 backdated VIX.

[Barry Bannister @BannisterBB]

@lippyent It’s rooted in an actual events. Before indoor plumbing it was common for people to toss sewage out of their window. That’s a pretty good way for a date to end. So men walk on the outside.

[Barry Bannister @BannisterBB]

We can go full-on with fancy terms like Operating CAPE, ERP, Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balances and so forth. But in 40 years of close watching I’ve never seen so much media hysteria over returning to the S&P 500 price of just 12 months ago.