Big Tech is sitting on $1.65T in hidden AI debt.
Instead of hitting their balance sheets, the risk is parked in SPVs financed by private credit and pension funds.
It's the 2008 CDO playbook, rebuilt for GPUs (to fund AI data centers).
Full breakdown below π§΅π
@navnoorquant At first, we were thinking he had to raise at least once this year and then would spell doom for markets.
Now it looks like he will hold for a very long time and get paralyzed.
Then he will have no choice but to cut and the market will fall at that point.
Uncertainty is πΌ
Newer traders should stay on shorter time frames. Practice execution, practice being nimble in your bias. Time in the market = risk. Get in and after you exit and are flat, there is zero risk. Fewer trades = better. Too easy to get snowblind in the afternoon.
Flipping through timeframes until you find the setup you want?
You aren't trading. You're hunting for confirmation bias. π¨
An asset can be bullish on the Daily & bearish on the 5m.
The Fix: Top-Down Bias. HTF dictates direction. LTF for execution. Stop guessing.
$SPY
"...company ($AMZN) lacks a hit consumer AI product on par with OpenAI's ChatGPT and Anthropic's Claude; but has inked deals committing both AI labs to spend at least $100 billion on services from the AWS cloud unit in the coming years."
Source: Spencer Soper, Bloomberg Terminal
A 25 year old is running an extremely leveraged hedge fund (that just blew up) that invests only in AI and people think this market is "A, OK" π
It's been 26 years since Shiller published "Irrational Exuberance" and 11 years since the third edition was published. And still...
Fundamentals left the chat ages ago. ππ»
Now?
It's just momentum algos playing hot potato with index futures, spoofing the tape to cajole participants into bidding prices higher.
They aren't pricing in growthβthey're hunting exit liquidity. Don't be the mark! π¨π€
@marginaldollar@michaeljburry It's called a "Dispersion Trade", it keeps a lid on the VIX even though stocks are volatile, we describe it in great deal here π
https://t.co/ytU18TN85s
Demand is real! "Token-maxing" is not inflating demand. Over leveraging? Pfft. Circular financing? Just what the market ordered. SPVs? The future. Debt maturity wall? What does that mean, who cares!
The S&P 500 is still up on the year!
π§΅π§΅π§΅
@JK872103@Doctorchimps@michaeljburry@grok Full explanation. And at this point it's going to get worse because Japan is going to keep hiking rates while the Fed is a sitting duck.
https://t.co/KNZhw58g8E