Marginal Dollar

The marginal dollar sets the price. Flows, plumbing and narratives move markets. Many years at a large hedge fund.

[Marginal Dollar @marginaldollar]

@dylan522p Are you raising a fund?

[Marginal Dollar @marginaldollar]

@CapitalObserver Assuming 4x leverage, it's not crazy

[Marginal Dollar @marginaldollar]

@hbkazemi33 @MebFaber People need to understand how HF high water marks work. Presumably he needs to recoup that 67% drawdown before he can collect fees again. A 2/3 drawdown means be needs to be up 200% from here

[Marginal Dollar @marginaldollar]

@DumbLuckCapital He was borrowing to buy options because the leverage the banks were giving his wasn't enough

[Marginal Dollar @marginaldollar]

@sidecarcap @yesandnotyes Aren't most companies conceived as an idea of one person, the founder, initially?

[Marginal Dollar @marginaldollar]

Agree, but think it will take some time. Degrossing is forced, regrossing is a choice.

Right now, it's hard to say this is more than short covering. But time will tell.

https://t.co/Rhep7Mlpj9

[Puru Saxena @saxena_puru]

Those who missed the *AI trade* can now load up on quality stocks when they're down 40-50% from the highs.

Highly probable this selloff will turn out to be a major buying opportunity.

[Marginal Dollar @marginaldollar]

Yesterday's AI rally looked like short covering, not a change in trend. The names are still below resistance and still making lower highs.

Positioning is the bigger issue: people de-risked, and rebuilding conviction takes longer than covering a short does.

[Marginal Dollar @marginaldollar]

He might have a lot to learn about the market, but maybe he does. It's better to make mistakes when you're young since you have a long runway

[Marginal Dollar @marginaldollar]

1/ Lots of people asking why anyone handed money to @leopoldasch — young, no investing track record. Maybe that was the point.

[Marginal Dollar @marginaldollar]

@AdviserCounsel https://t.co/NnY649WHJq

[Marginal Dollar @marginaldollar]

1/ Lots of people asking why anyone handed money to @leopoldasch — young, no investing track record. Maybe that was the point.

[Marginal Dollar @marginaldollar]

4/ Hiring for the old regime is how you get run over by the new one. If you think AI is that kind of break, the résumé you want may not exist yet.

[Marginal Dollar @marginaldollar]

3/ Drelles’ logic: the market was changing, and the people with the most experience had the most to unlearn. He wanted the guy with conviction and no habits from the last cycle — he compared it to why armies send teenagers into battle.

[Marginal Dollar @marginaldollar]

@BoringBiz_ But then he wouldn't have been Leopold

[Marginal Dollar @marginaldollar]

@MebFaber @trengriffin Literally the first rule is to not leverage volatile, mark-to-market assets. There is a reason most of the levered pod portfolios have low net exposure and right stops

[Marginal Dollar @marginaldollar]

@TheStalwart And I bet the average holder in $MU is still losing money

[Marginal Dollar @marginaldollar]

@litcapital The hair was the warning sign

[Marginal Dollar @marginaldollar]

@modestproposal1 Everyone here worships at the feet of Druck, PTJ, etc and they all have said, repeatedly, they look at price action first and fundamentals maybe second.

[Marginal Dollar @marginaldollar]

@johnarnold It's a legit question. I can remember back to the 1980s and people worrying about Reagan and defense spending and it has never seemed to matter. I'm sure it will one day, but 40 years is a long time

[Marginal Dollar @marginaldollar]

@firstadopter Mark-to-model >> mark-to-market