BaseTrustCapital

Quant traders with autism.
Your crypto influencers' nightmare.
Personal: IG

[BaseTrustCapital @BaseXCapital]

GM ☕️ Now it must hold!

BTC reached 78k by the end of the week and started May in the green, nothing out of the ordinary, common for crypto to start of the month with a great move (whatever the side).

Back in the low vol zone as the week-end started. Similarly to last week, price will most likely consolidate in this area (green area).

BTC must hold 78k to be able to breach this those and run higher towards 80k (green arrow).
Any rejection at that level (again) and we'll visit back May opens (red arrow).

Stay put and get ready, have a nice week-end!

[BaseTrustCapital @BaseXCapital]

GM ☕️ not a breakout behaviour YET.

It’s controlled, but also hesitant.

After multiple green days, you should either see continuation with authority or clean consolidation. What you’re getting instead is weaker follow-through, especially post-NY open.

82k is the only level that matters on the upside. Until that breaks and holds, everything below is just positioning.
If it does clear, there’s air to 84.4k and then 88k; no real friction in between. But right now, there’s no demand strong enough to force that move.

80.6k is your pressure point. Lose that and late longs start feeling it. That’s where unwinds begin, not instantly, but enough to shift control.
If that goes, you’re likely testing 80K quickly, and that level has to hold. If buyers don’t step in hard there, the “accumulation” narrative breaks down.

What you're calling accumulation is only valid if it proves itself:

> Hold above 81k and compress → bullish setup
> Break 82k with acceptance → expansion
> Lose 80.6k → positioning unwind
> Lose 80k → structure starts weakening

Right now, it’s neutral-to-fragile. Not weak, but definitely not strong.

[BaseTrustCapital @BaseXCapital]

GM ☕️ 75k area, the new support

The red path covered in yesterday's analysis prevailed.
BTC lost 77k and we've seen a continuation towards 75k, from where it bounced back: new support level.

Does it mean it was just a swift, shallow pullback before going back up? Not yet.
If BTC breaks above 78-79k, then breaking higher becomes more likely.
However, if it rejects those levels, then it's back to chopping between those two levels (75k-79k).

Get ready

[BaseTrustCapital @BaseXCapital]

GM ☕️ "Welcome to this Bitcoin conference" *proceeds to crash*

Bitcoin ran the full playbook: sell early, bait longs on the NY push, then flush everything below 77k before reclaiming.
It took liquidity, closed back above, and now it's sitting in a spot where continuation is possible... "possible".

78k is the mark. If price gets there and accepts, it's setting up a squeeze into the double top liquidity above.
If 78k rejects (again), this turns into a range with a clear ceiling and it's back to chopping or rolling over.

The key mistake here would be assuming strength just because of the reclaim. This is still reactive price action, and it needs follow-through.

If BTC loses 77k again and this whole reclaim becomes a trap, then it will actually be distributing and likely heading back toward the lows.

Acceptance above 78k → squeeze into 80k zone (green)
Rejection at 78k → range or fade (yellow)
Lose 77k → downside continuation (red)

Stay safe!

[BaseTrustCapital @BaseXCapital]

GM ☕️ BTC BTC BTC... again with a false breakout

Swept Thursday’s high twice and couldn’t hold it, closing the week back below the inside week high (~79.3k).
Liquidity above got tapped, no continuation, and now compressing lower. That shifts the short-term expectation to mean reversion.

Can it still break higher this week? Yes, but it needs to reclaim and hold 79k. Without that, any push above 80k off an early-week drive looks like a sell.

Dollar spiked to ~99.3, even if questionable, paired with strength on the open and oil pushing higher, is not a clean risk-on backdrop. It’s early, but it leans toward pressure building rather than easing.

BTC failed at highs → short-term mean reversion bias
Dollar + oil firm → mild risk-off undertone

Do not assume continuation from here...

[BaseTrustCapital @BaseXCapital]

Late GM ☕️ BTC is far from doing enough...

Seems like each time Trump dodges a bullet Bitcoin gets a pump and today was no exception... well kind of.

Still didn't even reach either Thursday's or Friday's high and is flattening.

Huge week up ahead with BTC event. It will and must positively impact volume flow if we want to see a sustained local rally + strength to 80k and above.

Right now, would make no sense to enter a position, short or long alike. Price sits at a "no direction" zone which would effectively make you gamble.

Sit on your hands, go touch some grass, come back later today and be prepared for next week!

[BaseTrustCapital @BaseXCapital]

GM ☕️ crypto compressing, low vol, Bitcoin looks heavy

Failure to take Thursday’s high is the key tell.
After a run like this, that’s where continuation should be obvious. Instead, you’re stalling right under highs with crowded positioning. That’s absorption at best, distribution at worst. If this was clean, you’d already be pressing into 80k. 14 EMA new local resistance???

Weekend is the filter. If this is just flow rotating into equities and not a real loss of momentum, BTC should reclaim initiative quickly, especially with a BTC-focused event ahead on Monday. If it stays flat or drifts lower into the conference, that’s weak.

The positioning makes this worse. You’ve got longs built at highs with no follow-through. That setup doesn’t tolerate indecision for long, it either squeezes fast or unwinds; if it compresses, you know what to expect.

Strength wise, BTC is still holding up better than alts, but that’s the only bullish argument left.
If that continues:
> BTC stable or grinding up while alts lag, then a late push toward 80k into or during the conference is still on the table.

If that flips:
> alts start catching bids while BTC stalls, you’re looking at distribution into an event. That’s the trap most people walk into.

No breakout yet. Weak structure at highs. Event ahead.
Watch behaviour, and touch grass.

[BaseTrustCapital @BaseXCapital]

GM ☕️ Strong close, but nothing resolved yet.

Bitcoin held the 4h gap cleanly and is respecting the short-term trend support around the 14 EMA.
That’s constructive, but we're still trading just under a major trigger.
Sub-80k into expiry makes sense, positioning, nothing surprising. What matters is what happens after.
If it finally accepts above 80k, that’s where things can accelerate quickly. If not, this just turns into another local distribution under resistance.

Dollar is the bigger warning sign though, not spiking, but steadily reclaiming structure, grinding higher, holding strength, closing near highs. That’s not what risk assets want to see if they’re supposed to break out cleanly. If it pushes through 99 with acceptance, expect pressure across the board.

Either this resolves into expansion above 80k, or it rolls back into the same range dynamics. Don’t assume breakout just because price is high, watch acceptance.

[BaseTrustCapital @BaseXCapital]

GM GM ☕️ A weak breakout???

Bitcoin showed its hand. That breakout attempt failed at the range highs and right into that February level, and now you’re seeing the typical aftermath with momentum stalling and price starting to step down.

Short term, it’s not outright bearish yet, but it’s fragile.
Holding in the premium zone and above the 50 EMA keeps the door open for another push, but the structure isn’t clean.
If 78k starts slipping, it likely accelerates into 77k and below. Failed breakouts with crowded positioning tend to unwind fast.

Upside isn’t gone, just conditional.
It needs to stabilise here and reclaim momentum, otherwise this turns into a flush.
Also keep in mind 80k acting as resistance into expiry, so even if it pushes, it’s not a free move.

Dollar quietly building strength in the background...
If it pushes into that 98.8-99 area, that’s pressure on everything else.
We've already seen it recently, if that continues, it supports the idea that this BTC move needs to reset lower before anything sustainable happens.

[BaseTrustCapital @BaseXCapital]

GM GM ☕️ New Fed chair nomination, late volatility, another false breakout... let's get over it.

Late push into the close on the Fed headline, straight back into prior failure zone. Same story for now: rally, but still not accepted higher.

BTC tagged the H4 gap near 77k and ran into the last failed breakout area.
If this was real strength, it should hold above ~76k and build. Instead, we’re already seeing hesitation. As long as 77–78k isn’t cleanly reclaimed and held, this looks like another sweep into supply rather than continuation.

Below, the same inefficiencies remain. A move back into 74–75k wouldn’t be surprising, and if momentum fades, deeper into the low 70k's again.
Structure still leans range until proven otherwise.
Break and hold above 78k, then you can talk continuation. Until then, it’s just another test.

Equities are pushing highs, which explains the squeeze, but not accelerating. Oil flat, dollar not weak enough to justify a sustained risk bid. That mismatch is why this move feels forced.

Anyway, price got the headline push, but hasn’t earned acceptance yet.
If buyers were in control, you wouldn’t see this stall here.

Until then, stay safe.

[BaseTrustCapital @BaseXCapital]

GM, another false breakout for Bitcoin.

Will this time be different than the previous two ? Or will BTC once again retraced the whole move down ?

Price action so far indicates the later. Tried to breakout. Immediately retested the breakout level and closed below it with then yesterday following with continuation down.

Most notable is the fact that the two bearish days happen on a weekend when price is usually very quite. There was no sign of support stepping, which is totally normal given we failed to break out and ofc sellers show up.

From here 74k could the support and we keep pushing higher but I rather see chop around the highs and then we push down to retest the 70-72k area.

[BaseTrustCapital @BaseXCapital]

GM GM ☕️ weakness weakness...

Strong week, but the weekend just exposed the weakness. That push into highs needed acceptance above 76k, and it didn’t get it.
Whether it closes slightly above or below doesn’t change much right now, the immediate rejection after the breakout attempt already signals failure.

From here, it’s about how it corrects.
If that high was the local top, next week shifts into either sharp reaction bounces that get sold, or a slower bleed where price redistributes lower over time.
-----> Neither is bullish short term. <-----

Failed breakouts don’t usually go straight back up, they need time to reset positioning. So unless you see a clean reclaim and hold back above 76k early next week, the path of least resistance is pullback, not continuation.

[BaseTrustCapital @BaseXCapitals]

@PortRoyalSpdway hey, are we supposed to turn this in for something?

[BaseTrustCapital @BaseXCapitals]

@TWeaver_5 @dre_cap Wtf! Lol that’s crazy!

[BaseTrustCapital @BaseXCapitals]

😎 #IMightLoveToEatTooMuch https://t.co/sDB5e1BoLn

[BaseTrustCapital @BaseXCapitals]

Wearing shorts in mid January is cool and all, but I wish the boat was still in the water!! ☀️🎣 #HammerDown

[BaseTrustCapital @BaseXCapitals]

Much respect for Vrabel and the Tennessee Titans. I wouldn’t mind seeing them win it all. #StillAPatsFan4Life

[BaseTrustCapital @BaseXCapitals]

“Life’s about to get good” -Shania Twain

[BaseTrustCapital @BaseXCapitals]

Lunch time with this kid that looks like Kyle and my Mamasita — at Valencia Luncheria https://t.co/cmYiRxX6ys

[BaseTrustCapital @BaseXCapitals]

Oh wow what a shocker, the Patriots haters are coming out of the wood work. How quickly y’all forget about 6 Super Bowls and more records than one can count. Hopefully we’ll have the GOAT back and have many more weapons around him next season. #PatsNation 🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🐐