X-Man

A random variable.

[X-Man @Based_XMan]

@nataninvesting UNH! 17% in fintech. Pinduoduo at 20% is madness. What the hell are you doing?

[X-Man @Based_XMan]

@TheLongInvest Too bad you dont understand how valuation works. Maybe based on past metrics but investors are pricing in risk of fraud and potential regime shift with MAHA and Trump.

[X-Man @Based_XMan]

The Federal Reserve’s April 2025 Financial Stability Report, issued 4/25, details U.S. financial system risks.

Core Metrics:
Asset Valuations: S&P 500 forward P/E at ~24 (vs. 15.8 long-term median); equity risk premium ~2 points below 20-year average. April labels valuations “notable” despite a 6% equity decline, contrasting November 2024’s “elevated but earnings-supported” stance.

Liquidity Concerns: Early April saw sharp drops in Treasury market depth and swap-implied rate volatility reaching post-2008 peaks. Unlike November 2024’s “stable but sub-par” liquidity, April highlights concurrent equity-Treasury price drops, diverging from typical flight-to-quality behavior.

Financial Leverage: Hedge fund leverage at decade highs, now a focal point (vs. brief mention in November). Bank commitments to nonbank entities revised to $2.3T, up $124B, with private equity/REIT exposures rising $243B.

Funding Dynamics: Runnable liabilities at $23.388T, up 8% YoY, steady at 78% of GDP. New “Runnables” metric, absent in November, consolidates run-prone liabilities. Uninsured deposits shrink; prime MMF vulnerabilities decline post-reform.

Top Risks (Spring 2025 Survey):
Global trade disruptions: 73%
Policy uncertainty: 54%
U.S. fiscal debt sustainability: 50%

Key Highlight:

1. April underscores illiquid asset risks, specifically commercial real estate (CRE), with 20% of $1T in loans due in 2025—a refinancing challenge not emphasized in November 2024.
2. November 2024 focused on geopolitical tensions; April shifts to trade and fiscal pressures.

Download it here: https://t.co/A6tqvOkbV0

#FederalReserve #FinancialStability #RiskAnalysis #Markets

[X-Man @Based_XMan]

@awakenowzone BEAT. With Mr. Tan reporting, likely with a optimistic yet grounded view. Intel, had major one time writeoffs over the last year. Very easy to beat with the expecations that are set. Opposing Factor: Tariffs.

[X-Man @Based_XMan]

Opinion: MACRO SYNOPSIS: POST-TARIFF REGIME, U.S. POLICY SHIFT, AND INFLATIONAL REALIGNMENT (AS OF TODAY)

Background: The post-COVID economy featured massive stimulus, supply chain issues, and U.S. reliance on Asian production, driving inflation via disruptions, not monetary policy. The Fed hiked rates, causing margin compression and a shift to trade policy, reshoring, and protectionism for independence.

1. Tariff Regime: 10% flat tariff plus reciprocal rates (China: 34%, Vietnam: 46%, India: 25%, EU: 20%) vary by product, marking a major trade realignment.

2. Inflation: Tariffs cause sector-specific, strategic inflation (semiconductors, electronics, rare earths, agriculture, industrial goods). Short-term: margin compression, price hikes. Medium-term: reshoring eases pressures. Long-term: domestic resilience grows.

3. Sector Impacts:
Winners: U.S. energy, industrial materials, infrastructure, rare earths, small/mid-cap manufacturing.
Losers: Asian-import retailers, multinational tech, pharma, consumer electronics, agricultural exporters.

4. Policy Mechanics: Corporate tax cuts incentivize reshoring; consumer tax relief boosts demand. Tariffs fund this shift via the External Revenue Service, replacing income taxes with consumption-based taxation.

5. Market Implications: Dollar weakens, 10-year yields suppressed, QT slows, Fed stays neutral. Markets rotate and reprice with high volatility in tech and global stocks.

6. Farming: China may halt ag imports; unaffected nations maintain U.S. access. Domestic ag gains from less competition but faces subsidy reliance and logistics costs.

7. Reshoring: Production shifts reduce inflation spikes, driving capex, investment cycles, and margin volatility, not runaway prices.

8. Energy Policy: Increased crude and gas production drops prices 7%+, aiming to suppress inflation, anchor CPI, and undercut hostile energy reliance.

9. Macro Scenarios:
High (~60%): Tariffs, tax cuts, reshoring succeed; inflation managed; real economy outperforms.
Medium (~30%): Tax delays, poor execution; sticky inflation, soft demand.
Low (~10%): Retaliation spirals; sharp equity repricing, CPI spikes.

Thesis: 2025 shock leads to 2026–2027 growth via capital formation and resilience.
2025: Correction (20-35%), weak sentiment, trade restructuring.
Mid-Late 2025: Tax cuts, strategic projects launch.
2026–2027: Growth in infrastructure, energy, food systems; equity rotation to real assets.

Risks: Geopolitical retaliation, policy delays, or smooth execution.

Edge: Early positioning for tariffs, crude disinflation, QT reduction, and fiscal policy shift. #bear #bull #macro #markets

[X-Man @Based_XMan]

@midiconch @whatever This is so stupid. Actually thinking this way requires a low IQ

[X-Man @Based_XMan]

@DarrigoMelanie Good! End it - such a waste.

[X-Man @Based_XMan]

@nickschmidt No!!! They reprice every day!

[X-Man @Based_XMan]

@DividendDude_X Greedy when others are fearful - who the fuck is fearful right now?

[X-Man @Based_XMan]

@unusual_whales That’s wild - holy poor.

[X-Man @Based_XMan]

@StealthQE4 This is such bullshit. Everyone who is even slightly cool boozes hard. #drugsrcool

[X-Man @Based_XMan]

@WallStreetMav Good as it gets : https://t.co/fowN8tZx3M

[X-Man @Based_XMan]

@BATMAN_SPOTTED But Jews r good!

[X-Man @Based_XMan]

@naiivememe Did this in Chicago Friday with Intel profits. $300 dinner for 3k in profit taking. (Don’t ask what I do when I take a loss).

[X-Man @Based_XMan]

@runews This is so cringe. There is no edge in doing this!!!

[X-Man @Based_XMan]

@CUPforTruth Oh wow, great survey very helpful.

[X-Man @Based_XMan]

@DividendDude_X In the entire market . Trillion dollar companies are the BEST risk to reward. Stop posting!!!

[X-Man @Based_XMan]

@DividendDude_X Well these “multiples” are contingent upon sustaining current earnings growth…

[X-Man @Based_XMan]

@whatever I just don’t understand how they talk like that. Instant turnoff.