Banners in the Basement

[Banners in the Basement @BasementBanners]

@michsthoops Amateur photographer here. Do you like my photo?

[databallr @databallr]

Here's my explanation of why Jaylen Brown's offensive analytics are underwhelming:

Jaylen Brown is a great scorer.

But “great scorer” and “offensive engine” are not the same thing.

An offensive engine creates impact in 3 distinct ways:

1. Score efficiently on big volume
2. Reduce team turnovers while carrying huge usage
3. Create better shots for teammates

That is what people mean by offensive impact.

Not just: did you score points?
Not just: did you get assists?

Did the team score points more efficiently because you were on the floor?

Jaylen is interesting because he had a good scoring season. I estimate his scoring impact last year around +2, the best mark of his career.

But if we are asking whether he is an elite offensive engine, the bar is much higher.

Let's start with scoring efficiency.

Jaylen took around 36 shots per 100 possessions at 57.5% TS last season. ("shots" includes freethrow possessions).

At that volume, TS% (True Shooting Percentage) has enormous leverage. Every 1% of TS% is worth roughly +0.6 points per 100 possessions on the scoreboard.

So the gap between 57.5 TS% and 62 TS% is not cosmetic. It matters. That is roughly +2.5 points of offensive impact. Scoring at 62% TS would move him from a top 50 per possession analytics season to a top 20 one last year.

But right now, among high-usage offensive stars, the efficiency gap is clear.

Shai: 67.0 TS%
Giannis: 65.9%
Curry: 64.8%
Kawhi: 63.3%
Luka: 61.8%
Mitchell: 61.7%
Brunson: 59%

Jaylen: 57.5 TS%

Jaylen’s scoring still has value because the volume is massive, but he's not generating the impact that some of these other guys do from scoring.

The second path is turnover value.

This part is underrated. If you are using a huge number of your team's possessions, how often you turn the ball over before you shoot matters on the scoreboard.

Historically, a lot of high-volume creators give their teams a significant advantage in the turnover game. Jordan, Kobe, Iverson, Lou Will, T-Mac, Melo, Shai, Kawhi, Brunson types. All of these guys have generated significant impact from reducing team turnovers and it's clear as day in the impact analytics.

They shoot a ton, and they also help the team avoid turnovers because the possession ends in a shot instead of a mistake more often than the league does.

Jaylen does not provide that kind of impact.

His box-score profile estimates his offensive turnover impact around neutral, historically, and last year. The 5-year lineup data, and the eyes, agree.

That does not mean he is killing the offense with turnovers.

It means he is not creating the turnover advantage that many true engines create.

Let's look at a stat called "Scoring Turnover Rate". It is defined as non-passing turnovers divided by scoring attempts. It's typically the ball handlers fault when he turns it over on something that isn't a pass.

Here are some high usage scorers around the league in Scoring Turnover Rate (Lower is better)

Jaylen Brown: 10.3%
Giannis: 10.5%
Paolo: 9%
Ant: 6.6%
Shai: 4.4%.
Kawhi: 5.5%.
Brunson: 4.1%
Mitchell: 5.3%
Tatum: 6.5% (2025)

Lower is better, and when the scoring volume is massive this accumulates to a meaningful amount of turnover differences between players which translates to offensive impact.

You see Brunson scored at 59% TS, a down year for him, but he turned the ball on handling related mistakes, per scoring attempt, at 4.1% vs Jaylen's 10.3%.

If you are on-ball enough to shoot over a third of your team’s shots, ball security gets magnified. The skill of getting to your shot without losing the possession is a big part of offensive value.

Top players can generate up to +2.5 points of offensive impact from reducing team turnovers.

Imagine if you could just imbue Jaylen Brown with Kawhi's handle. How much better would you feel about him having the ball in his hands even if he was shooting the same shots at the same efficiency. Instinctively, you know it matters, analytically it undeniably does. Having Kawhi's turnover economy alone would move him from a top 50 analytics season to a top 20 one last year.

(Passing turnovers matter too and he's average there but it's less meaningful to discuss because he's not passing the ball that much.)

The third path is playmaking.

Jaylen took 36 shots per 100 possessions and generates only 13 potential assists per 100 (shots, if they were made, that would be an assist for JB).

He shoots almost 3x as much he directly creates a potential assist. He's much more of a scorer than he is a passer.

Shai is at 34 shots to 18 potential assists which is lower than 2:1 ratio. So you see, even the best scorer in the league has a more balanced distribution of shots and potential assists.

Jaylen averages only around 2 rim assists per 100, which is low compared to the best playmakers, so he's not creating obvious value via lobs and easy layups.

A scoring heavy profile can be great if the scoring efficiency and turnover efficiency are overwhelming like it is for Kawhi or Shai, but neither are for Jaylen. That's the problem. Just one of the two being elite, or both being good, can be enough to get him to engine status. But he has neither. Perhaps he can still improve.

But if the scoring efficiency is low for the top stars, and the turnover value is around neutral, and the playmaking is limited, the elite-engine case falls apart. It just does.

You have other players like Cade and LaMelo who have similar scoring efficiency profiles to Jaylen, but those players are elite playmakers according to both the analytics and the public. Not only are they passing the ball a lot more, but they are generating a ton of assists to players at the rim, which are markers of elite playmaking.

The point is not that Jaylen Brown is bad.

He is a positive player who plays a lot of minutes.

The point is that his team impact has been very weak for a supermax offensive centerpiece because he has not proven himself to be a real offensive engine.

The question is whether he can become one in Philly. I think the Boston system was a pretty awesome environment to thrive. If Jaylen Brown was playing elsewhere and traded to Boston I would be bullish on his fit there. I just don't really see Maxey and Embiid as being the type of players that fit particularly well with him and increase his impact. Its certainly going to reduce his usage, which might be good. I'm not sure JB is in his optimal role as a ultra high usage player with his current handling.

I think Jaylen becoming more impactful offensively is mostly about his own skill development as a handler/3P shooter, and an improvement in shot selection. There's a lot of upside for him if he does that. Most people can't create the shots that Jaylen does. So that's the thing with Jaylen.

In any case, I'm excited to see how it plays out next year.

As for who won the trade?

I like it for Boston. They are fixing a potential long term salary cap issue and bringing in PG who can provide 2 way impact Boston. He's a much better 3 point shooter and defender. His durability and decline is the main issue.

Really I think Philly is rolling the dice on whether Jaylen Brown can improve. If he does it could turn out to be an excellent trade. If he's the same player here as he was in Boston, I don't think it's a good trade. The contract is massive and the synergy with Maxey/Embiid is questionable.

[Banners in the Basement @BasementBanners]

@SanaDetroit When my hoodie shipping ? Been 2 months

[Darryn M. Briggs @darryn_briggs]

Jaylen Brown likely IS the smartest person in most rooms.

He's a polyglot who has taught at MIT and who attended UC Berkeley himself.

There are simply some people unaccustomed to folks who won't bow or dull their mental acuity for other people's comfort.

[Banners in the Basement @BasementBanners]

@AMS123183 @MattCouture5 I think that tells you all you need to know

[Banners in the Basement @BasementBanners]

@AMS123183 @MattCouture5 Buddy, I think the problem is that you thought your $0.50 was worth $1

[Banners in the Basement @BasementBanners]

@SausageSteph @StevenCheah A+

[Banners in the Basement @BasementBanners]

@YourGOATsBurner I’ll raise you one - he’s actually an idiot

[Chris Steed @csteed]

Digging into the ‘WHY’ behind some of the macro data that shows him as a net negative player has been fascinating and aligns perfectly with the eye test.

Jaylen is high usage which is normal for All NBA players. He also dribbles the air out of the ball from the wing AND is in isolation higher than almost any player in the league.

Seconds per touch:

SGA/Ant/Tatum ~ 3.5
Jaylen ~ 4.0

Dribbles per touch:

SGA /Ant/ Tatum ~ 2.7
Jaylen ~ 3.1

Among non PG’s this ranks the HIGHEST. During the Championship run it was much lower.

This matters for two critical reasons:

- His efficiency goes from ~ 1.10 PPP with < 3 seconds per touch to ~0.8 PPP with more than 3 seconds per touch.

This is NORMAL for the average player. It is NOT NORMAL for supermax/All NBA heavy useage players on winning teams.

- The second part is that he doesn’t have the creation ability that high usage/heavy dribbles per touch players do (Jalen/Luka) so he doesn’t command doubles, and isn’t creating the same long closeout advantages other stars do.

The eye test shows the Celtics get stagnant for long stretches and settle for too many late clock, one pass 3’s. Obviously there is multiple factors contributing, but none bigger than this.

From a tactical stand point, it was absolutely time to move on, for both players.

[Banners in the Basement @BasementBanners]

@NoEscalators Mookie is an MVP, Jaylen brown is a top 50 player making top 5 money who makes no one on his team better.

[Fullcourtpass @Fullcourtpass]

People in the NBA believe Jaylen Brown has a "disease" where he thinks he’s the smartest person in the room, per @colincowherd

“I had two NBA sources … two people in the league, one an executive, one a scout, say that Jaylen Brown has — it’s a disease. He suddenly thinks he’s the smartest guy in every room he’s in ... You make a lot of money, suddenly you’re absolutely sure, you don’t wanna listen to your bosses, you don’t wanna listen to consultants, you don’t wanna listen to teammates.”

(Via @volumebball, h/t @TheNBABase)

[Banners in the Basement @BasementBanners]

Please amplify this to the people who need to see it: Seattle, USA v Belgium. Mo Bamba walk-in song. Get it done #GhentBent

[Jon Rothstein @JonRothstein]

Source: Moustapha Thiam is staying at Michigan and will play for the Wolverines next season.

The 7-2 big man averaged 12.8 PPG and 7.1 RPG last season at Cincinnati and was one of the top big men in the transfer portal.

Another positive development for Mike Boynton.

[TheWolverine.com @TheWolverineOn3]

Trey McKenney had 'five, six schools' reach out immediately after Dusty May's departure, told Warde Manuel 'I want Mike Boynton'

Full story: https://t.co/nEsHSMjqGu

[Banners in the Basement @BasementBanners]

American and Dominican LeBron on the same team? 🥵

[Shams Charania @ShamsCharania]

Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green is declining his $27.7 million player option to become a free agent, sources tell ESPN. This move gives the Warriors flexibility to pursue LeBron James in free agency and Anthony Davis via trade to form a Big 4.

[Jon Rothstein @JonRothstein]

Elliot Cadeau is staying at Michigan, per his agent Drew Gross.

Massive news for the Wolverines.

[Trey McKenney @mckenneytrey1]

#GoBlue

[Michigan Men's Basketball @umichbball]

Roddy Gayle Jr. has signed to play with @DetroitPistons in the Summer League in Las Vegas.

#GoBlue x #ProBlue

[Banners in the Basement @BasementBanners]

Do NOT let this man drive in the snow

[Shams Charania @ShamsCharania]

The Timberwolves send a haul to the Hornets for a star-studded new backcourt in Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball -- the Nos. 1 and 3 picks in 2020. Charlotte didn't shop Ball in the market, but listened and received multiple rich offers before filling a significant need in the frontcourt with Reid.

Timberwolves co-owners Marc Lore and Alex Rodriguez enter the luxury tax for the third straight year -- and the franchise makes a big move to fill the point guard spot.

[Banners in the Basement @BasementBanners]

@JonRothstein God bless this thread