Bastien @Bastient2sg - Twitter Profile

(1/8) [ANALYSIS] Assessing the Strategic Impact of Ukraine’s Deep-Strike Campaign Against Russian Oil Infrastructure. Ukraine’s deep-strike campaign against Russian #energy infrastructure has attracted considerable attention since 2025. Refineries, storage facilities, export terminals, and logistics hubs have repeatedly been targeted, generating significant media coverage and reinforcing the perception that Russia’s economic foundations are increasingly vulnerable. However, a closer examination of the data suggests that the campaign has had limited strategic impact on one of Russia’s primary centers of gravity: its ability to finance the war through mineral-resource exports. This analysis evaluates that claim by examining the contribution of different export categories to Russian federal revenues and modelling the impact of refinery disruptions using average data from 2022–2025 as a baseline. This leads to a straightforward conclusion: while the campaign has imposed operational costs and temporary disruptions, its direct impact on Russia’ war-financing capacity remains limited. Even under conservative assumptions, the effect is approximately 1% of federal revenues after accounting for crude-oil substitution. Furthermore, rising oil prices in 2026 are likely to more than offset these losses. This raises an important question: if the campaign is not materially impairing Russia’s ability to finance the war, what possible purpose does it serve? The answer appears to lie primarily in the political and operational domains rather than the economic one. Read on Substack: https://t.co/aSGPMbcfAQ #Oil #UkraineRussiaWar #Strategy