Bayside Growth

Focus on growth, tech, and AI stocks.

[Bayside Growth @BaysideGrowth]

@crux_capital_ As a paid subscriber, I would like to know more about China over supply risk. To my knowledge, the leading edge companies like LITE should be less vulnerable to this than others, but the price action doesn't support that view.

[Bayside Growth @BaysideGrowth]

@Pablo01618 "we own a single SaaS company and its in the health genetics and AI sector" Which one?

[Bayside Growth @BaysideGrowth]

Great Twitter/X resource for stock traders. If you follow an account (like this one), it will probably cover more than one stock. Some you care about, others not. The latter are a waste of your time.

Turns out that X Pro (formerly TweetDeck) comes with their $8/month X Premium plan. It allows you to filter your followed accounts and lists according to whatever keywords you care about, including stock tickers. Saves me a TON of time every day and allows me to follow more accounts I might not otherwise have time for.

[Bayside Growth @BaysideGrowth]

@crux_capital_ Excellent response. At least I think so. Perhaps worth a repost to your regular followers? Your call.

[Bayside Growth @BaysideGrowth]

@crux_capital_ I think I copied/pasted some of their major points into the tweet above. Based on what I pasted, any reactions?

[Bayside Growth @BaysideGrowth]

@crux_capital_ Who has the advantage on CW lasers used in silicon photonics? Meaning who has the best tech and will scale it better? Lite or COHR or someone else?

[Bayside Growth @BaysideGrowth]

@BenBajarin For those (like me) who were wondering whether this was just a clip from the last earnings transcript, it is actually from today's presentation at the Wolfe Research Auto, Auto Tech and Semiconductor Conference. Seeking Alpha transcript at
https://t.co/x0XdpAaGUe

[Bayside Growth @BaysideGrowth]

The announcements by HHS on Friday and the sudden decision by Novo to reverse course and finally go after Hims on patent grounds feel coordinated. These actions were clearly in the works for weeks, if not months. In my opinion, they were part of the MFN efforts last year and were timed in relation to the TrumpRX rollout last week. Novo's sudden willingness to risk its patent was probably influenced by backchannel communications with HHS.

Looks like we will see a lot of legal action going forward -- not just the patent lawsuit (which will take a long time to resolve and will probably be settled), but also because the compounding industry will undoubtedly sue the FDA to stop whatever actions they are planning to restrict compounders' use of API.

The legal drama continues. (I have no position in Hims and haven't since last September).

[Hims House @himshouse]

🚨 NOVO NORDISK HAS SUED $HIMS FOR INFRINGING ON U.S. PATENT 8,129,343

The '343 patent is Novo's "crown jewel" patent

This patent has already withstood an IRP patent challenge by Mylan Pharmaceuticals in 2023

Novo is seeking both a permanent ban AND damages

If a court finds willful disregard of patent protections, it could potentially result in up to treble damages

BUT these cases are risky for both sides

"If Novo were to lose such a case based on a judgment of patent invalidity, it could potentially lose its exclusive rights to semaglutide, meaning that others (not just Hims) would be free to use, make, and sell it without infringing. Such an outcome would be a disaster for Novo Nordisk." -@BaysideGrowth

"If Novo does sue, the mostly likely outcome would be a settlement, most likely with Hims agreeing to stop compounding in exchange for no damages. Over 90% of such lawsuits are ultimate settled" -@BaysideGrowth

[Bayside Growth @BaysideGrowth]

I am super impressed by your work and knowledge on the optics front! I am a recent investor in LITE and I believe you are a long-term investor in that too? With respect to the supply choke points you mention (in the video in particular) you called out Coherent for being an especially strong, vertically integrate player - especially with its Texas plant. Is LITE also strong in your opinion, or is it vulnerable to supplier issues that could limit its expansion abilities?

[Bayside Growth @BaysideGrowth]

OpenAI claims it will be profitable in 2030. I am doubtful, because they will be competing with hyperscalers who are happy to run continued losses or break even for longer than that. But 2030 is a reasonable date.

According to A16z, AI startups in their portfolio have positive ROI now.

[Bayside Growth @BaysideGrowth]

@jukan05 These memory constraints are a byproduct of inefficiencies in the memory commodity cycle. The answer is long-term contracts with dedicated fab space, closer to the TSM model. That would eliminate shortages and offer accessible memory at reasonable prices. This is in the works.

[Bayside Growth @BaysideGrowth]

@KreizJordy Why is memory up so hard today?

[Bayside Growth @BaysideGrowth]

@KreizJordy Yes, indeed. Would love to know why it is up today.

[Bayside Growth @BaysideGrowth]

@GabGrowth Forgive me if I missed it, but have you explored why net income has been flat the past two quarters, despite continued revenue growth? When will net income start growing again?

[Bayside Growth @BaysideGrowth]

I would think the details of the LTA matter quite a lot here. If LTA just means a 1-2 year contract, then yes, the memory suppliers don't have much incentive to do that.

But what if LTA means opening a dedicated fab, where the customer essentially pays the cap-ex costs, but gets dedicated supply from that fab? Such an LTA would likely be much longer-term. It would address boom-bust periods which are a source of inefficiency and would substantially address shortages for customers. @jukan05

[Bayside Growth @BaysideGrowth]

@dnystedt What percent increase would this be in Micron's capacity?

[Bayside Growth @BaysideGrowth]

That article (and others) suggest that $MU revenue may be up somewhere in the 45-55% range q/q in the quarter that just ended (and will be reported next week).

"Looking ahead to Q4 2025 ... TrendForce predicts that conventional DRAM contract prices will rise by 45–50% QoQ, and total contract prices (including DRAM and HBM) will increase by 50–55%." Of course, DRAM constitutes most of Micron's revenue.
https://t.co/MDOOwFbBaX

Micron DDR5 prices surged 56% from Sep 15 to Oct 17.
https://t.co/0acXPNWXZE

Since price increases drop straight to the bottom line, the earnings should be off the charts.

[Ray Wang @rwang07]

DDR5 Prices Surge Significantly Across Major Brands (from Sep 15 to Oct 17)

Kingston DDR5-6000 CL30 32GBx2 increased from 6,500 to 7,990 NTD (price change +22.9%).

Kingston DDR5-6000 CL30 32GBx2 RGB increased from 6,750 to 8,600 NTD (+27.4%).

Kingston DDR5-6000 CL30 16GBx2 rose from 3,350 to 4,288 NTD (+28%).

Micron DDR5-6000 CL40 32GBx2 jumped from 4,999 to 7,799 NTD (+56%).

Micron DDR5-6000 CL40 16GBx2 rose from 2,499 to 3,899 NTD (+56%).

ADATA DDR5-6000 CL30 16GBx2 Lancer Blade (low-profile black) increased only slightly from 3,299 to 3,359 NTD (+1.8%) — (as of Oct 19 evening, shows 4,099 NTD, while iSunfar still lists 3,359 NTD).

ADATA DDR5-6000 CL30 16GBx2 Lancer RGB went up from 3,450 to 4,199 NTD (+21.7%).

[Bayside Growth @BaysideGrowth]

@Jukanlosreve Excellent work. Wish I could more easily invest in Korean companies

[Bayside Growth @BaysideGrowth]

@ayz_yzyz Love this news, but because I badger @Jukanlosreve about sourcing, I should be fair. Can you give some sense of your source? Rumor? Speculation? Someone with actual knowledge of what Micron is doing? Reticle design is very specific, so I assume it's the last.