Carlos I.R.

Investing in stocks, equity funds, and crypto.
Holdings: $SIVE, $NOK, $XFAB, $YSS, $SMOL, $OBDU, $AZT, $INTEG & $BMNR.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Key Events This Week:

1. July Existing Home Sales data - Tuesday

2. OPEC Monthly Report - Wednesday

3. July CPI Inflation data - Wednesday

4. July PPI Inflation data - Thursday

5. July Retail Sales data - Friday

6. August MI Consumer Sentiment data - Friday

It's a big week for inflation data.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

I think it’s a good time to revisit $SIVE ~$427m/yr midpoint capacity revenue modeled projections.

Given recent industry earnings:

> $AAOI cited +20-40% demand imbalance for transceivers (with lasers as the bottleneck).

> $MTSI saying many "Customers are coming to us with urgency due to the general supply shortage of indium phosphide DFB lasers" (in other product lines)

> US proposal ban on new Chinese optical transceivers (Innolight/Eoptolink)

> AOI no meaningful participation in first-gen CPO deployments due to lasers being allocated toward transceivers.

The read through is that it’s possible to apply the same capacity-demand absorption modeling applying to $AAOI, but for other laser players like Sivers too.

Given the widespread shortage and demand imbalance for InP CW DFB capacity.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

I’m actually kinda curious about $SIVE securing more foundry allocation given widespread CW DFB shortages now.

Since I’m pretty confident it sells out once qualifications go into volume ramp.

But aside from that

> reaffirm demand/supply imbalance from other earnings like $MTSI / $AAOI helps

> new development/qualifications mentioned in previous earnings with pluggable players, probably most material

> Progress with $JBL, ~ $AEVA, $POET, $GFS or other opportunities, maybe initial POs would be nice.

> Nasdaq listing update reiterated (we already got updates it’s planned completion next few quarters). I still place that on priority personally since it unlocks more funding for their M&A efforts, hopefully down the pluggable stack.

I think the revenue inflection starts around H1 2027, so current revenue/profit numbers are not very material.

An $AAOI statement like anything we make we expect to be sold in 2028 or something would be kinda goated.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

I've mapped the entire Wall Street bear playbook on AI names:

Have your favorite institution/media insert one of these name down below:

1. < ______ [GPUs, Transcivers, MLCC, Memory...] are a commodity set to crash>

2. < ______ [YMTC, CXMT, Dongshan...] from China will flood the market >

3. < ______ [Micron, Nvidia, ...] from unverifiable channel checks is facing issues >

4. < ______ [Kospi, Sivers, ...] is a bubble like the ____ [2007, 2021] crash>

5. <____ [1,2,3, ...] unexpected rate hikes this year>

6. < _____ [Google, Nvidia, Deepseek ...] optimization removes the need of this!>

in a new headline, and it's ready to go!

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

I usually make fun of sellside, but Rosenblatt has pretty goated channel checks on optical names, and their reports are one of the few I like talking about.

$AAOI, $LITE, $SIVE, and the laser party has started to recover around the est. timing windows.

eg. last month: "Multiple short sellers told them they will likely close their positions... late July and early August".

They might have missed that they believed $AMD would be $AAOI's first CPO customer... since AAOI said they would be missing from first-gen CPO (maybe future gen?)

But lot of their talking points about China CPO laser positioning (eg. 2-3 years behind) got corroborated word-for-word from AAOI earnings today.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Earlier today, optical interconnect company Lumilens "emerges from stealth" at a $5.5B valuation, after raising $700m.

Just as a recap from $POET / $SIVE Linkedin OSINT mapping I shared earlier, Lumilens was supplying a top 3 hyperscaler customer.

So we got confirmation of that a month later, along with the material figure that Lumilens has a "multi-billion-dollar customer agreement".

And just for reference, $POET has existing contracts with Lumilens ($50m purchase order, up to $500m) + contracts with $SIVE (depending on product lines).

I actually took tiny positions in POET again after reading this news, since it finally gives them visibility into extremely well funded hyperscaler suppliers (on top of Poet's really large balance sheet).

But TLDR:
> Lumilens around similar (or even higher) valuations as Lightmatter/Ayar, bigger than markets thought with hyperscaler customers.
> nice read through upstream on $POET (derisking) / $SIVE.
> Great for optical valuations in general, seeing a company go to $5.5B in 2 years.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Wow, there's gem after gem in $AAOI earnings for $SIVE + other laser player readthrough.

1. AAOI not meaningfully participating in CPO first-gen deployments.

"We just can’t make enough of them [CPO lasers] to be involved in their current first-generation [CPO] deployments because there’s just not enough capacity. We have to prioritize our ability to make lasers for our own transceivers first"

So first-gen CPO laser deployments, might even be narrowed down further for Western players like $SIVE, $LITE, $AVGO, and $COHR.

And independent CPO CW laser capacity became more valuable if $AAOI had to turn away more customers...

Also remember Trendforce was talking about $AMD singing CW LTAs? $COHR / $LITE have capacity signed with $NVDA ...

I thought it would be $AAOI, but they might be out of the equation. $MTSI also doesn't look meaningful with early CPO participation (eg. no mention in ER aside from NPO, and removal from Ayar website).

So I wonder who players like $AMD is going to go with for Helios (eg. Sivers + Ayar more likely candidate now)?

Btw, this is not bearish AAOI because they have too much demand for optical transceiver business. Just more bullish on the existing few qualified CPO laser names that have capacity.

2. Demand imbalance and bottleneck for InP lasers / optical transceivers.

AOI's CEO stated kinda supported that when they said: "The customer demand is 20%-40% higher" than expanded built out capacity.

"We are getting this kind of demand from several big customers almost every week. Lasers are the biggest bottleneck right now for the transceiver business"

3. China being years away from having CPO DWDM specification lasers.

I covered this earlier when looking at CPO competition from channel checks.

But AAOI confirming that China is "easily at least two, three years or even longer from having CPO lasers is incredible tread through on defensibility Western laser positioning in the CPO laser chokepoint.

TLDR:

- High demand imbalance for CW lasers and optical transceivers.

- $AAOI not in first-gen CPO due to capacity constraints (not exactly bearish AAOI because they have too much demand for their optical transciver business, but even better news for the few independent players with capacity coming online like $SIVE)

- China years behind in CPO lasers.

[Carlos I.R. @Be_nice_dot_com]

@Sergivalentin_ Qué pena si se va al Barça, pero no es una sorpresa porque el estilo de juego de ese equipo le viene mejor a Rodri.

[Paradis Labs @ParadisLabs]

For $SIVE, Q2 earnings from $GFS yesterday is strong third-party confirmation of Sivers' 2027-2028 photonics ramp.

Reminder: In June, Sivers signed a collaboration with Global Foundries that puts their lasers into GF's SiPh reference designs and CPO platform.

Read-throughs from $GFS earnings transcript:

1. $GFS silicon photonics revenue to "more than double in 2026". NPO ramp in 2027 / CPO ramp in 2028.

- Important external validation of $SIVE's entire photonics thesis.

2. $GFS 2027 NPO / 2028 CPO cadence lines up with Sivers' own guidance.

- "Production ready status in 2027".
- Multiple ramps in 2027.
- Sivers estimated CPO SAM of $1.0-1.4B by 2028.
- So GF is effectively narrating the demand curve into which Sivers has positioned their Glasgow ops + Win Semi capacity.

3. $GFS CID grew 20% sequentially and 62% YoY which is the fastest quarterly growth since 2022. Growth guidance raised to 50-60% YoY.

- Direct demand validation for the platform Sivers plugged into, from their collaboration in June. Growing demand.
- GF's acceleration is the leading indicator Sivers earnings in 2027+ with funnel filling upstream before Sivers seeing the units.

4. $GFS CEO: "We now expect our silicon photonics revenue to more than double in 2026 compared with the year prior"

- Clean revenue funnel logic if GF SiPho more than doubles and Sivers is the partnered external laser route into GF reference designs.
- Sivers has guided its own laser qualification to "production ready status in 2027" so Sivers captures this as design-in/NRE in 2026 and unit revenue in 2027+, not coincident with GF's 2026 doubling.

5. $GFS secured 7 new optical networking design wins with customers from transceiver suppliers and hyperscaler players.

- All are a potential downstream pull for external laser content.
- Sivers has been building this coverage independently: $JBL 1.6T LRO, $POET ELS, O-Net/Enablence ELS, and legacy Ayar Labs.
- Looks like Sivers' Q1'26 disclosure of an opportunity pipeline up 77% YTD to $799M is the mirror image datapoint to GF's design win momentum.

6. $GFS have "more than 40 customers today in SiPho" with customers telling GF "I don't have enough secured."

- This just corroborates Sivers' narrative of an InP laser chokepoint and supports their pre-emptive capacity build via WIN Semi.
- If GF customers are scrambling, the matching external laser capacity is just as scarce = pricing power for Sivers.

7. $GFS could "10x photonics capacity"

- GF ramping PIC output 10x at existing fabs implies a proportional pull on external light sources.
- For Sivers, they need to scale InP output in lockstep or lose allocation to $LITE / $COHR.
- Sivers' answer is the WIN outsourcing + Glasgow expansion (historically framed as targeting >1,000 wafers/week).
- Interested to see if Sivers report capex/capacity commitments scaled to GF's 10x narrative.

Just as a list of the main read-throughs you can draw from Global Foundries' comments to Sivers.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

The unexpected thing of the week... Was $AEVA becoming a CPO/NPO optical source player.

For background: $SIVE is viewed as the high confidence CW DFB laser supplier to Aeva (which is known for lidar).

Today, Aeva reacted with +18.26% AH on news that they signed a JDA with an optical engine player for deployment at a major hyperscaler in H2 2027, production ramp 2028.

"Optical Connectivity will leverage that foundation along with Aeva’s EXISTING high-volume manufacturing and foundry supply chain" for:

- ELSFP (similar to O-Net/Enablence + $SIVE), with Sivers as the likely CW laser + potential amplifier supplier

- On-chip integrated light source (likely $SIVE DFB + Aeva PIC on the architecture/integration side)

TLDR: New TAM and a hyperscaler programs for Aeva for CPO/NPO, positive read through for upstream suppliers like $SIVE.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

A very material catalyst came about for Western supply chains from $AAOI, $SIVE / Jabil, to $LITE and Coherent:

The Trump administration is drafting a ban of new Chinese optical transceivers and DC devices.

Which would likely hit China’s Innolight, Eoptolink, and other Chinese optical interconnect supply chains.

"The agency would ban all imports of new transceiver models ​and then exempt many ⁠non-Chinese suppliers from the restrictions"

We'll likely see a larger bifurcation of supply chains with even greater importance put on Western players.

[Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FundstratDirect.com @fundstrat]

Even better stat:
- every time $ETH outperforms $BTC in any month
(3 times since 2025)

- $BMNR outperforms ETH over following 2 months
(3 of 3 times since 2025)

July 2026: ETH outperformed BTC by 1,100bp
- care to guess what BMNR does in August &amp; Sept?

[Bitmine (NYSE-BMNR) $ETH @BitMNR]

🧵
1/
BitMine provided its latest holdings update for August 3, 2026

$11.3 billion in total crypto + "moonshots":
- 55,797,813 ETH at $1,880 per ETH per ETH (per @coinbase)
- 209 Bitcoin (BTC)
- $180 million stake in Beast Industries @MrBeast
- $61 million stake in Eightco Holdings (NASDAQ:$ORBS) (“moonshots”) and
- total cash and marketable securities of $173 million.

Ticker: $BMNR
Chairman: Tom Lee @fundstrat

Link ⛓️
https://t.co/gArSRjGJaC

[P Equity Research 📰 @pequityresearch]

Nvidia's announcement of co-packaged optics entering mass production provides a boost to optical communications.

"Gilad Shainer, Senior Vice President of NVIDIA, announced that Co-Package Optics (CPO) has entered mass production."

"According to foreign media reports, Gilad Shainer announced at a recent technology forum that CPO has begun mass production. Switches developed by Nvidia in collaboration with its supply chain have been delivered to close customers and are also being deployed at Nvidia's own facilities. It is expected that a large number of switches with CPO technology will be introduced into AI factories around the world this year."

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Key Events This Week:

1. Markets React to Trump Cancelling US Strikes on Iran - Today, 6 PM ET

2. July ISM Manufacturing PMI data - Monday

3. June JOLTS Job Openings data - Tuesday

4. AMD, $AMD, and SpaceX, $SPCX, Report Earnings - Tuesday

5. July ADP Nonfarm Employment Change data - Wednesday

6. SanDisk, $SNDK, Reports Earnings - Wednesday

7. July Jobs Report - Friday

8. ~20% of S&P 500 companies report earnings this week

We have a huge week ahead of us.

[Carlos I.R. @Be_nice_dot_com]

@benjamincowen Easy fix? Get out of Iran and everything will be fine. Oil down, inflation down etc...

[Carlos I.R. @Be_nice_dot_com]

@Chaamacoo Beautiful! Thank you for this!👏
$SIVE 💪

[ItsSmacky @Chaamacoo]

People keep forgetting what $SIVE actually is.

This is not a one-product company. It is a collection of growth platforms sitting across several of the fastest-moving technology markets in the world. When you buy $SIVEF you are not placing a single binary bet. You are taking exposure to AI photonics, LiDAR, SATCOM, defence and fixed wireless at the same time. Most still treat it as if success or failure rests on one single technology. That misunderstanding sits at the heart of a lot of the current noise.

I have been watching the doomsday talk with a certain distance. The uncertainty that always hits smaller names harder while the real acceleration is still forming. If anyone believes the move from 4 SEK to 110 SEK was the main event, they have misread the entire arc. That was the opening act. The more interesting chapters are still ahead.

The current fear is not new information. It is the same emotional reaction that always appears in the gap between early recognition and broad acceptance. Rolling orders. A pipeline that keeps expanding. Larger contracts that, in my view, appear increasingly likely. I am convinced the fear being circulated right now will look temporary in a few weeks or months. What still surprises me is how few people seem to grasp how many of $SIVE’s customers carry the kind of potential that can change sentiment, perception and understanding of the company almost overnight.

I am not claiming the business is easy to understand. High-technology companies rarely are. $SIVE has always worked quietly, methodically. For those of us who have followed it for years, the volatility is familiar. This company’s history has been defined by it. When you are not yet at the final station it is hard to see the platform, let alone the destination. That is where many make the critical error. They skip the homework and they sell precisely in the phase where the information asymmetry is greatest.

If you actually do the work, the picture looks different. Short-term swings will continue as long as geopolitical tension and sector rotations keep capital moving. But when those settle, and when the larger orders I believe are coming begin to land, I doubt most people fully appreciate how quickly the narrative can shift.

Quantifying these markets has never been straightforward. That difficulty is not unique to $SIVE. No one knows the ultimate size with precision. Yet if you simply look at the demand already being signalled by companies such as $LITE and $COHR, existing supply will not be sufficient. What does that suggest? A sector in terminal decline, or a sector that remains poorly understood?

Are none of these technologies going to matter in a world already pouring unprecedented capital into AI infrastructure? Is this not positioned to grow several times over from current levels? These are not abstract questions. The answers carry weight.

Can a customer simply replace a laser source after years of joint development? Once you are designed in, once processes and relationships have been built together, switching is rarely clean or cheap. Time, money and market position are all at stake. In the end this market will not reward the largest revenue base of today. It will reward those who can actually deliver at the required scale and reliability.

If someone concludes $SIVE is not among them, that is a coherent view. If, however, you believe the company can deliver in volume, the conclusion becomes rather clear. They did not raise 700 million SEK to admire the cash. They raised it to accelerate. While uncertainty and pockets of panic move through the market, the company continues working toward longer-term objectives that will matter far more than the current noise.

I remain fully convinced of the direction. Imagine the combination of additional secured production capacity, meaningful new orders, and a well-chosen acquisition that strengthens both vertical control and margins. Does anyone seriously believe the share price remains indifferent?

I wrote, before this larger move even began, that uncertainty and misleading narratives would be used to shake conviction. The present moment is consistent with that expectation. This company was never built on social media narratives. It was built on rare technical depth, a real edge in fabrication, and a strategy designed for the longer game.

The real question is simple. Will you still be holding when the next phase becomes obvious, or will you look back and recognise another opportunity that slipped away while the noise was loudest?

I am convinced this is one of those rare situations people later describe with regret: regret for selling, regret for not adding, regret for allowing temporary fear to override work already done.

$SIVE has always felt like a singular opportunity to me. The first major move confirmed it. The next one is likely to leave even more people standing on the platform as it pulls away.

[Carlos I.R. @Be_nice_dot_com]

@SemiAnalysis_ So first you publish that garbage research about photonics delays, which is completely false, and trigger a sell-off.

Then, just a few weeks later, you launch a photonics ETF (LAZR).

And now you write this?
This looks like textbook market manipulation. Absolutely disgusting!

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

$LITE CEO Michael Hurlston at the RAISE Summit warned that the supply gap for InP lasers for AI DCs:

Is facing a more severe supply chain crisis than memory.

And with Lumentum's 5 InP fabs, shipments would be more than 30%+ below customer demand.

This is especially visible with EMLs today but is already expanding to CW, especially as CPO ramps.

I've always been a fan of the laser chokepoint + bottleneck from $AAOI, $SIVE, $LITE, and $COHR. And glad this thesis is starting to see validation.