Alejandro

Inversión丨Finanzas丨Value Investing

You must value the business in order to value the stock

[Alejandro @BeatingMrMarket]

📖 Nueva publicación ➡️ Análisis del modelo de negocio de Costco: un gigante del retail. $COST https://t.co/9BFtIYCxdW

[Alejandro @BeatingMrMarket]

https://t.co/zw1ENbgXK2

[Alejandro @BeatingMrMarket]

$GLNG Staubo speaking at the MSGBC Roundtable during AEW 2025:

“We are planning to order our fourth FLNG on speculation this year. We want it to be deployed in this basin (MSGBC)"

"The next five years we want to order at least three FLNGs minimum. That is our ambition”

[Fiscal.ai @fiscal_ai]

Spotify is now officially a 10-bagger off of its 2022 lows.

903% return in two and a half years.

$SPOT

[Alejandro @BeatingMrMarket]

Is the current premium in $GME really justified?

Am I missing something?

[Alejandro @BeatingMrMarket]

After the capital raises conducted by $GME, the company has established a fundamental floor tied to its net cash position, equivalent to ~$10 per share (excluding operating leases).

[Alejandro @BeatingMrMarket]

(i) a structurally declining business model (currently breakeven, as financial income offsets retail store losses); and

(ii) the speculative possibility that $GME, with its cash on hand, might take a stake/acquire another company or purchase a higher-risk asset (BTC??)

[Aswath Damodaran @AswathDamodaran]

As the market climbs, the implied ERP for the S&P 500 drops to 4.23%, its lowest value since 2008. As a forward-looking price of risk, the ERP drives everything in markets. I have a review that I do on ERP, and my fifteenth annual update is now available: https://t.co/wZcZy5Az5C

[Antonio Linares @alc2022]

How I see $SPOT going 10X from here, to then gradually become the $GOOG of audio.

In a landscape in which consumer engagement is/was waning post-pandemic, $SPOT stands out with its remarkable growth in Monthly Active Users (MAUs), defying the trend of reduced spending and time on social media platforms.

Despite facing formidable competition from giants like $AMZN and $AAPL, $SPOT appears to be outpacing them, as evidenced by the data depicted in the accompanying graph.

Historically, $SPOT's challenge has been the substantial share labels claim from its streaming revenue. However, the company's strategic shift towards diversified audio offerings such as podcasts and audiobooks promises improved economics.

Emerging as the top podcasting platform globally, surpassing $AAPL, hasn't been without sacrifices. Significant investments in this space have initially pressured gross margins, but recent announcements indicate a turning point. Management's revelation of the podcast business nearing profitability heralds a future where it no longer drags down margins but contributes positively.

The fourth quarter of 2023 saw a significant surge in free cash flow, primarily attributed to the favorable performance of the podcast segment, as highlighted in the graph.

Moreover, the successful progress of the audiobooks vertical, requiring minimal capital, reinforces $SPOT's potential for profitability. With podcasts on the verge of breaking even and audiobooks gaining traction, $SPOT's cash flow outlook appears poised for exponential growth.

The crux of this thesis lies in $SPOT's formidable moat, built around its exclusive focus on audio content, a realm where competitors like $AMZN and $AAPL struggle to compete. Leveraging this stronghold, $SPOT aims to enhance Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) and subsequently User Lifetime Value (LTV) by introducing additional audio verticals.

As $SPOT inches towards surpassing 1 billion MAUs by 2030, key observations emerge:

1. The journey from 1 billion to 3 billion MAUs becomes increasingly feasible, mirroring the company's trajectory over the past six to seven years.
2. Scaling up to this magnitude affords $SPOT additional operating leverage, enabling it to address consumer and creator needs more effectively.

The deployment of new audio verticals marks just the beginning of $SPOT's potential. Beyond this, the company can exponentially increase ARPU by resolving shared challenges among creators and consumers, akin to $AMZN's success with merchants and shoppers.

By going down that path, $SPOT eventually becomes an audio search engine. Like $GOOG but for audio.

With a keen understanding of both $SPOT and $AMZN, I believe $SPOT possesses the organizational prowess to achieve sustained growth. Comparable to $AMZN's customer-centric approach and rapid iteration, $SPOT's trajectory is increasingly challenging for competitors to replicate.

Trading at a modest Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 3.4, $SPOT presents an attractive investment opportunity. The deployment of new audio verticals could trigger substantial multiple expansion. Looking ahead, as $SPOT adopts an $AMZN-like strategy, the potential for further upside is considerable.

[Alejandro @BeatingMrMarket]

@alc2022 Investing in $SPOT requires you to have a long-term perspective of the business model, which very few are able to envision...

During 2022, the stock market gave us a really great opportunity to buy $SPOT

[Christopher Bloomstran @ChrisBloomstran]

Let’s get ready to tumble! Come Monday, $TSLA enters the S&P 500, as the world is aware. This is the one you will tell your grandkids about, or at least the new crop of investors, wondering what the bubble of 2020 was like. Tesla can be your example of the insanity....1/

[Alejandro @BeatingMrMarket]

Nick Train: Finsbury Growth & Income Trust.

Asset Allocation (4 buckets):

- Digital Winners
- Beloved/Trusted Brands
- Luxury/Premium/Aspirational Brands
- Stock Market Proxies

https://t.co/p55PEXBuKh

[Alejandro @BeatingMrMarket]

25/ Están centrados en conseguir una escala dominante, ser la plataforma de audio y streaming referencia global (establecer su marca como sinónimo de streaming), y así poder incrementar su poder de negociación frente a las discográficas y mejorar sus márgenes.

[Alejandro @BeatingMrMarket]

1/ HILO sobre Spotify $SPOT, su modelo de negocio, círculo virtuoso, ventajas competitivas y algunos datos sobre la compañía. 👇👇

[Alejandro @BeatingMrMarket]

24/ En Spotify están centrado en el largo plazo. La razón principal que reside detrás de un ARPU decreciente en los últimos años es que Spotify está sacrificando sus resultados en el corto plazo.