Ben Dycus

Surety Bonds & Insurance @Marsh_MMA | Construction | Real Estate | PE/M&A | Investing | Energy

[Ben Dycus @BenDycus]

https://t.co/tefDnFVbXS
Excellent message

[Ben Dycus @BenDycus]

@MikeBotkin_ Keep in mind surety bonding post-close.

[Ben Dycus @BenDycus]

@SBA_Matthias This topic is critical for construction co’s who rely on surety bonding as part of their business plan/model. Have seen ppl acquire & not think about working capital needs, only to find that their bond capacity is severely hurt. But that’s what I’m here for, to avoid or fix that

[Ben Dycus @BenDycus]

My analysis on the tariffs, as it currently stands anyway. Critique/commentary is welcome. 🧵

Due to historical fiscal irresponsibility (of both parties over the past few decades), trade imbalances, and simple lack of economic vigilance as a nation (primarily in the public sector), we’ve been on the brink of a crisis, which the Trump administration is trying to avert. The first spark/chess move to the aversion is the tariffs.

The crisis is that we have been enjoying the exorbitant privilege of the strength of the USD too much. We have simply gotten used to "give us real goods & services, we give you dollars & dollar-denominated assets (ie Treasuries)." Real things for paper fiat currency. This has produced a glut of USD in the world marketplace and has left the world wondering, "This is kind of a bad deal for us. We have so many of these dollars; do we need any more?" World players have started in recent years moving away from the USD. The wheels of an impending dollar/debt crisis have been in motion.

The point of the tariffs is to lower the trade deficit, which means less USD flowing out to pay for imported (foreign) goods/services. As mentioned before, there has been a glut of USD in the world, and thankfully there is still strength in the USD and demand for USD & USD-denominated assets (ie UST), but we have been on the brink of that strength/demand/confidence eroding. So through the tariffs & smaller trade deficit, there will be fewer USD throughout the world (lower supply), from which the market equilibrium price may be found (increased).

Stronger USD, in turn, lowers the cost of imports and reinforces attractiveness of US assets, incl UST, the demand of which keeps yields low, thus promoting low UST interest rate/expense & strong credit availability of the UST.

The higher domestic prices we’ll face here in the US for the short term will hopefully be just that: short term. An austerity measure of sorts for US consumers, a small price to pay to reinforce fiscal responsibility & USD strength. And hopefully through this, yes, domestic production will be promoted, again, to move away from the large trade deficits and environment of "Give us real goods/services, we’ll give you paper." It’s a fine line to walk though. The hope will be that US domestic production capabilities & efficiencies will improve to meet domestic demand, rather than succumbing to the pressure of "we want low prices & don’t want to work for them!"

Overall, the tariffs is an attempt to move toward an environment for responsible management of US national debt, reinforcement of strength of USD, overall US economic strength, global hegemony, and long-term standards of living. The medicine may not taste good, but it may help us get healthy.

@SecScottBessent @howardlutnick @chamath @Jason @friedberg @DavidSacks @altcap

[Ben Dycus @BenDycus]

@PeterSchiff Why would the USD & US asset prices fall due to this dynamic? IMO, by restricting USD outflows into the world (via lower trade deficit), this would actually strengthen USD & USD-denominated assets, assuming they’re desirable in the world marketplace. Simple supply-demand of USD.

[Ben Dycus @BenDycus]

@SMB_Attorney @smblawgroup @KHendersonCo Would love the LOI template please! Unfortunately can’t make it for the webinar. Thanks!!

[Ben Dycus @BenDycus]

@altcap Big fan of your pod, content, and conversations. Figured why not, I’d offer to be a resource to support your ongoing efforts. All the best!

[Ben Dycus @BenDycus]

@JDVance I wish you & President Trump well with your upcoming inauguration and wanted to introduce myself & my firm. All the best!

[Ben Dycus @BenDycus]

@chamath Long-time fan of the pod, appreciate listening to your all’s ongoing conversation. Figured why not, I’d offer to be a resource to support the ongoing conversation. All the best!

[Ben Dycus @BenDycus]

@friedberg The insurance industry knowledge & insight you bring into the pod, incl. most recent on the CA wildfires, is impressive. Curious who, if anyone, do you refer to on insurance insight? I/We at Marsh/MMA would be honored to serve as a resource for you. Hope to connect!

[Ben Dycus @BenDycus]

@DavidSacks Long-time fan of the pod, appreciate listening to your all’s ongoing conversation. Figured why not, I’d offer to be a resource to support the ongoing conversation. All the best!

[Marsh @MarshGlobal]

In this Risk in Context podcast episode, we discuss how firms can use data and analytics to improve their risk intelligence and build a robust insurance program that responds to their evolving needs. https://t.co/S3rp1kaqXK

[AGC of Kentucky @AGCKentucky]

Ready for day 2 on the Hill! #DCFlyIn

[Ben Dycus @BenDycus]

I am a panelist in this upcoming event on 3/26 in Louisville along with Dean Dorton & Deltek/ComputerEase on "Best Practices for Managing a Construction Company in a Challenging Market." Hope to see some of you there.

No cost, breakfast included
https://t.co/QE0pCnyHZb

[Ben Dycus @BenDycus]

I plan to write more on here going forward, from things I’m thinking about, working on, discovered, learned, etc. Don’t know how frequently, probably every few weeks. Feel free to tune it out, block me, etc., or like, comment, and share. Maybe no one will be interested, but at least I will enjoy getting some thoughts & points out on paper and communicating to whoever may stumble upon my content of who I am, what I’m about, and what I believe, as well as the same for my company. Hopefully some folks will glean some valuable nuggets.

https://t.co/i8tEpycKhw

I’m a huge Simon Sinek fan and wanted to start by sharing a short video of his that has become a core part of my framework of conducting business & life. I believe we should strive, as often as possible, to conduct business & life with those with whom we share common values & with whom we can have genuine, meaningful, and fulfilling relationships (more so than merely transactional relationships).

I have encountered so many people through my career thus far that maintain the status quo of transactional business relationships and are hesitant to change, even when they KNOW a better & more fulfilling relationship lies on the other side of that change, merely because their current supplier/provider holds the seat of the incumbent. “We’ve been with them since ____” and “It works ok for us” are really about it.

My message today is that IT’S OK to make that change when you know (or at least think there could be) a deeper, more fulfilling connection/relationship lies on the other side. There is value to that. If it doesn’t pan out as such, then go back to what you were doing. But why not give it a try?

Don’t worry, not all of my posts will be as deep as this, lol. Just a thought I’ve been chewing on a long time and needed to put out there. Feel free to comment if you agree, disagree, etc.

[Ben Dycus @BenDycus]

@friedberg @Jason US on board with nuclear energy now https://t.co/HHt6HkE4gr