Here’s the real numbers (only from my gut):
Hong: 35%
Crowley: 30%
Roys: 15%
Brennan: 5%
Dropped out: 5-7%
Undecided: 8-10%
Undecideds break hard for Crowley and Roys, pushing Crowley to 35-37%, Roys to 17% on election night. Hong caps out at where she’s at, gets 36-37% on election night, and Brennan may gain half a point or a full point.
Hong wins by 1-2 (maybe 3) points if it’s a good night for her, Crowley wins by 1-2 if it’s a good night for him.
I think the polls underestimated the strength of Black voters, the age of the electorate, and the amount of independents that vote in the primary. Also, far and away this poll overestimates the liberal leanings of the electorate in the primary.
With only a real contest for Governor on the Dem side, and most contested attention-getting-races being Dem, many more independents will be voting in this primary.
From the day he entered the race the first time, and again the second time, Josh and I have been proud Crowley supporters. From the North side of Milwaukee, the poorest zip code in the state, with parents struggling with drug addiction, evicted 3 times by the time he graduated high school, grew up to become the County Executive of Milwaukee, and is now the Democratic Nominee for Governor of Wisconsin. He did the impossible.
Now we get to work. We will support David and his family and team. Congratulations to David Crowley! The biggest upset in the nation! #Crowley #DavidCrowley #Wisconsin
I’m gonna tell you something - don’t ever bet against a poor kid from inner city Milwaukee (coming from a poor rural kid ☺️). He shocked the nation tonight. Congratulations to David Crowley, now let’s make him the next governor of Wisconsin!! #Crowley2026#DavidCrowley#Wisconsin
@kenklippenstein Let this be a lesson to never bet against a Milwaukee kid from the North side, poor inner city folks know how to get the job done (coming from a poor rural kid ☺️). He showed up and we backed him. Go David Crowley!
Endorsed by Governor Tony Evers, David brings a track record of success to places most thought were lost causes. I encourage you to support him and make him our Democratic nominee for Governor of Wisconsin. We can beat Tom Tiffany, and we can take this state to new heights.
#DavidCrowley #Wisconsin #wisconsingov #Crowley #GOTV #democrat #Milwaukee
Happy Election Day, Wisconsin! I encourage you to get out and vote for David Crowley for Governor.
David is an executive who builds unlikely coalitions. He has built tens of thousands of new housing units, cut drug addiction in half in Milwaukee County, stands as an advocate for labor unions and the working class, and reaches out to "the least of these" to lift us all up.
Hundreds packed the Majestic in Madison WI to rally and vote for @DavidCCrowley on Tuesday to be our next Governor. And yes they love our Governor Tony Evers! #ImWithDavid
I think the polls underestimated the strength of Black voters, the age of the electorate, and the amount of independents that vote in the primary. Also, far and away this poll overestimates the liberal leanings of the electorate in the primary.
With only a real contest for Governor on the Dem side, and most contested attention-getting-races being Dem, many more independents will be voting in this primary.
Here’s the real numbers (only from my gut):
Hong: 35%
Crowley: 30%
Roys: 15%
Brennan: 5%
Dropped out: 5-7%
Undecided: 8-10%
Undecideds break hard for Crowley and Roys, pushing Crowley to 35-37%, Roys to 17% on election night. Hong caps out at where she’s at, gets 36-37% on election night, and Brennan may gain half a point or a full point.
Hong wins by 1-2 (maybe 3) points if it’s a good night for her, Crowley wins by 1-2 if it’s a good night for him.
This scenario depends on undecideds breaking the way I’m witnessing on the ground.
Crowley has the most potential to gain. The momentum is behind him. Secondary momentum is behind Roys. Hong needs her supporters online to have actually lived in WI and go to the polls, and then she can pull this off. We will see! Democracy in action!
The Dem Socialists sound like MAGA republicans, their way or the highway - that attitude is dangerous for democracy. We have to work together, no matter how hard it is. Or we get nothing we want accomplished. Democracy is built on mutual trust and compromise. Be a real leader and work with others!
And I don’t remember Jesus talking about “winning souls” like a scoreboard. I do remember him saying that worshiping him and following him is feeding the hungry, welcoming stranger, helping the poor, and loving others… he did not say to perform like you are praying in the middle of Times Square
Then Jesus said, “and when you pray, do not be like the hypocrites, for they love to pray standing in the synagogues and on the street corners to be seen by others. Truly I tell you, they have received their reward in full.” Matthew 6:5
“when you pray, go into your room, close the door and pray to your Father, who is unseen. Then your Father, who sees what is done in secret, will reward you. Matthew 6:6.
Then Jesus said, “But when you pray, go into your room, close the door and pray to your Father, who is unseen. Then your Father, who sees what is done in secret, will reward you. Matthew 6:6.
“And when you pray, do not be like the hypocrites, for they love to pray standing in the synagogues and on the street corners to be seen by others. Truly I tell you, they have received their reward in full.” Matthew 6:5
"We're going to spend time on that bullshit that others are talking about on Twitter? Please."
Gov. Evers campaigning for David Crowley tonight in an attempt to stop Democratic Socialist Francesca Hong from winning next Tue: "You can ask me 100 times, and I'm going to give you the same damn answer. The issue is around getting things done."