Bender (parody)

[Cobie @cobie]

When ppl claim this I always wonder how they think it happens, or have unrealistic expectations on how much $1bn actually is.

I joined crypto with $200. If I held my initial bitcoin since then and never traded, I would have ~$300k.

If, instead, from that moment I sold the top and bought the bottom of every crypto cycle on Bitcoin, and never paid any taxes, I would have ~$6m USD.

If I put my entire net worth into the Ethereum ICO and never touched it, today I would have ~$150m pre-tax.

While it was definitely possible to have made >$1bn with the opportunities in the market, these versions of reality would also require me to make no mistakes, and have no need to spend $ in real life, or take excessive risk via leverage.

In reality, I grew up in a working class family. I didn’t have a trust fund and I had to pay off my student loan myself. I had a job at Tescos while at high school. After university, I needed to pay rent and fund cost of living and eventually buy a place to live.

I worked at startups for relatively little $ salary, and while a couple have done okay, they still are illiquid and worth nothing until some exit.

Perhaps if I erase a couple of dumb mistakes and drawdowns, or if I had a lil more grind, then my answer would be different today. But it is easy to say this with perfect hindsight vision. It’s easy to see where you could have optimised better, and decisions you made look dumb when the past makes things so obvious.

The truth is I have always optimised for enjoying my life and not going to 0. I never felt like I had a safety net, so it was never possible for me to do anything in any other way. I would probably have less money if I had tried to add more risk or chased $ harder, because being all-in with your entire livelihood is a mental battle and I feel I only win that battle when the stakes are lower.

In writing this, maybe I do understand why CT folks believe this, because modern CT sees crypto as a late-stage lottery ticket farm, where the optimal strategy is to 5x leverage up your portfolio in a hope of catching a good 20% move and then leaving. Or, literally going all-in on the next coin they heard Ansem is buying. So perhaps to them, looking back at the charts, of course that’s what successful folks did.

In reality, I use leverage close to never (and typically to reduce risk rather than add risk — have used it to add risk maybe 3 times in the last 5 years, and maybe 15 times ever). I never go all-in on anything, have only ever done that on BTC and ETH before in the last decade. When I buy other things, I limit risk to tiny amounts, because I treat it as a 0 until proven otherwise (so, always <1% liquid portfolio). Liquid portfolio is also a smaller % of overall portfolio to future-proof against my own fuckups.

Obviously I made a lot of money, I have been here 12 years! CT doesn’t want to hear about “getting rich in a decade” though. I am happy with where I am and have never really cared or optimised for maximising $ earnings, but instead having a nice life that lets me enjoy the game we play together.

[Forward Guidance @ForwardGuidance]

Forward guidance is dead, long live forward guidance.

🧵Breakdown of our latest roundup with @qthomp @Tyler_Neville_ @fejau_inc

[XO @Trader_XO]

$SOL

The last time I traded this was in Jan/Feb- not been interested since...

Having sold/shorted pretty much every significant high on solana in 2025 - there's nothing worth while swing shorting imo - but do believe it eventually slides lower.

Major resistance at the 12/25 weekly bands..

I'll pick up spot when the bands / structure bases out and mometum is to the upside...

[XO @Trader_XO]

bitcoin:native

Leaning towards price continuing to trade developing Value for the week aheah - 64.5 <> 60.5

For me, the current weekly VWAP becomes the key pivot from here, confluent with monthly VWAP.

Expectations - rotation lower - seller from higher

Postioned: Remaining short from 81s with long hedge taken off - will be looking for an intraweek play lower.

[XO @Trader_XO]

hyperliquid:native bitcoin:native

BTC pushed higher over the weekend and continues to hold much of its relative gain from Friday, while HYPE has effectively retraced its move.

This is the first real sign of local weakness I’ve seen in HYPE since its ATH.

What makes it interesting is the shift in behaviour: over the past few weeks, even as Bitcoin was printing lower lows, HYPE continued to hold structure, form higher lows, and push higher. That relative strength appears to be fading here.

[Quinn Thompson @qthomp]

Central bankers almost never hike into an energy shock, and when they do it doesn't end well.

The ECB has multiple examples of oil price driven rate hikes that were reversed in less than a year - each time marking policy errors.

[Andrew Johns @AndrewNJohns]

"Developers are stuck. They don't want sell at a loss." - @MarkJCarney

Developers have options:
▪️Keep empty
▪️Convert to rental
▪️Lower prices

And so what if they sell at a loss? That's the game.

Why should Canadian taxpayers bail out homebuilders?

[Ahmad @TheAhmadOsman]

Eric, thank you for making the case for Opensource AI so clear

[Bender (parody) @BenderReturns]

@Tyler_Neville_ What? Which one is instantly replaceable and which one is a bearer asset

[Marc van der Chijs @marcvanderchijs]

https://t.co/qJGPmSAe6C

[Quinn Thompson @qthomp]

New Scouting the Tape is out.

It's no coincidence to us that the Iran deal was timed just before Warsh's first FOMC. This issue dives deeper into the Fed's hawkish pivot and the opportunities we see around it.

[Bluntz @Bluntz_Capital]

i think solana eco seems to be picking up and of all the sol eco $MET seems like a sure bet (imo)

has a weekly bull div, has dumped over 85% from the highs, is new and has no last cycle bagholders.

is 75m mcap, annualized revenue is 18m, treasury alone has $40m usd in it and they've already done 14m in buybacks.

it feels practically free at these levels and wont take much until the market catches on to this very obvious dislocation of value.

[DineroDom @DineroDom0]

Wait till people realize solana:METvsvVRapdj9cFLzq4Tr43xK4tAjQfwX76z3n6mWQL is doing:

- $17M profit Annualized (30d)
- Has $40M sitting in a treasury
- 4% tokens bought back ($13.7M)
- Trading at $55M
- 3.2 p/e ratio
- 72% of the current MC chilling in a treasury

Mind you we are experiencing the worst crypto market condition in years, and @MeteoraAG is uniquely positioned to benefit from the massive surge in volume that will come from emerging markets like tokenized equities, Pre-IPO companies, RWA's, and of course general volume on @solana coming back.

Just this week @Backpack and @sunrisedefi launched $SPCX with the help of Meteora which did $350M in volume in just 3 days! This market was non existent a year ago, and has doubled in size this quarter alone.

People were quick to reprice solana:BPxxfRCXkUVhig4HS1Lh7kZqV6SPJhzfEk4x6fVBjPCy from $40M to $150M, MET will do the same once people figure out how rapidly the equities market is growing on Solana

Study meteors TTF filing, anf their dedicated IR page @MeteoraInside

[goodalexander @goodalexander]

The thing people are missing on GLM 5.2

Before it would have been kind of useless to rent H200s bc the open models weren’t good and codex subsidies so high no practical need to

But subsidies getting cut. And GLM 5.2 is good enough to want *way* more tokens bc looping doesn’t break

Not to mention god knows what data you’re going to lose now the companies are retaining your data more for “national security”.

Completely changes economics in structural semi permanent way and it’s worth noting each of these points are likely to accelerate

1) looping (massive token consumption with sub agents) will get better with model capability and base error rate bc compounded error
2) coding plan subsidies will get cut as pressure builds into IPOs to show margin improvement
3) national security concerns will increase causing larger data retention windows and more IP risk and perverse incentives (Anthropic building the software you use Claude code to build)

Providers like Vast are already seeing insane hockey stick acceleration that started in Feb and is probably going to hit a parabola

This creates a flywheel for discount and efficiency providers which are highly international by nature (Malaysia bought billions of GPus, Middle East)

It’s worth repeating: prior to glm 5.2 this was all kind of theory / LARP. Just bc the open source models got brutally outperformed by close source

I’m incredibly jacked up. Rising tide lifts all boats. GPUs. Chip Marketplaces. Chip financing. Crypto mining. The future is now

[Mykhailo Fedorov @FedorovMykhailo]

Ukraine launches TrophyLab: we are opening access to captured Russian weapon technologies for our global partners. Every missile, drone, and vehicle seized on the battlefield is now a source of knowledge for the free world.

Through this secure platform, allied governments, labs, and defense tech manufacturers gain access to deep technical data, reports, and vulnerabilities. Users can also request physical equipment for testing, significantly shortening the development cycle for countermeasures.

What was meant to be the enemy's secret advantage is being dismantled to defend democracy. Join the platform:
🔗 https://t.co/xoeCfXsIy3

[🐧 @Pentosh1]

aerodrome-finance:native revenues are redistributed to veAero holders

Tokenized stocks backed 1:1 coming backed with real dividends (see post 2) which means more swaps/volume

prob goes to .74-.75c in the near future imo around the time of the main-net release, with a pit stop around .60c likely.

the chart looks very constructive, I'm not sure ill hold it past that but its the first level that comes to mind off this support

This is a pretty small play for me, as just dipping my toes back into this specific market outside of hype. Just looking for some strong plays that have a good combination of FA + TA without the crap tokenomics

[George Conway ⚖️🇺🇸 @gtconway3d]

The great @JonathanPieNews here encapsulates Trump's (and America's) humiliation by Iran like nobody else can.

[Ross Hendricks @Ross__Hendricks]

It’s hard to overstate just how horrific the long-term economics of Americas largest tech companies will become after sinking trillions into a commoditized industry that’s competing with China on price

[David T.S. Fraser @privacylawyer]

An absolutely shameful statement by Steven MacKinnon. Every organization with a long track record of expert commentary on the rule of law in Canada condemned the bill.

"Liberals dismiss ‘tinfoil hat’ privacy fears as lawful access bill passes"

https://t.co/fRLQsxDCjD

[Ron Butler @ronmortgageguy]

Carney Government Loses It's Mind &amp; Just Saves Condo Developers In BC: Unfuckinglievable

Unlike Carney's deal with Ontario which was a HST Sales Tax reduction scheme in BC they just went whole hog &amp; BOUGHT New Construction Condos the Developers can't sell

Which is NUTS

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