Stian

CIO, Sun Chase Cap. Asia. There are a lot of grey swans out there...

[Stian @BergmanStian]

While standing at a replica phone booth. Don’t do drugs kids…

[Rafi Farber @RafiFarber]

Bank of Japan's yen interventions are getting more and more anemic.

[AGTrader @agtrader]

The Nikkei and Yen are clear and present dangers to prop firms

[Ed Bradford @Fullcarry]

Appropriate that Greenspan dies at par

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

If I owned 60BN of the SPX 500 stocks and funded that investment with 66% equity 18% preferred and 16% convertible debt. What should all the liabilities and share holders equity be worth? If not 60BN why not?

[Warren Pies @WarrenPies]

Historically, semis were priced as a cyclical industry. As margins peaked, P/S ratios would fall.

Over the past year, though, semi multiples have exploded as margins hit all-time highs.

Either the industry has become less cyclical OR it is a sign of exuberance.

[Stian @BergmanStian]

@Geo_papic @JacobShap @mgertken Gotta give it to @JacobShap super brave to talk macro on a podcast when he’s so new to the game but man that Chinese bond yield call is gonna be pretty embarrassing should he re-listen to it in 5 years. Just hope he’s not directly managing other people’s money.

[Stian @BergmanStian]

@SantiagoAuFund @VladTheInflator The problem with X is you start to convince yourself these sorts of comments are profound & that you don’t just sound like a sophomore stumbling into a conversation with adults who’ve actually read books before the age of 30.

[Velina Tchakarova @vtchakarova]

This is mind-blowing scale of purge. And really good news for Taiwan, Japan, and US.

[Grant Williams @ttmygh]

Careful out there gold & silver bugs...

They're just numbers

[Cem Karsan 🥐 @jam_croissant]

Ahhhh. Got it. Is there footage showing he pulled his gun out?

Despite no less than 5 candles of different footage???

Because there is clear footage showing he was attempting to raise his hands and not provoke agents.

There is also clear visual proof that he was thrown to the ground and pepper sprayed in the face before any gun appears in the footage.

There is clear footage of him being Securely restrained and Physically subdued by many ICE agents before his execution.

There is clear footage of his firearm being removed from him well before he is executed.

So as far as we know his real crime is owning a legal firearm.

Do you believe in his legal right to bear arms?

[Stian @BergmanStian]

@KYRRadio @stephenross89 @kofinas Yeah Zach if only Biden hadn’t let in all these immigrants we wouldn’t have to execute American citizens Gestapo style in the street for exercising their right to assemble and concealed carry 🙄 this sort of whataboutism makes you sound like a right-woke, bootlicking, moron.

[Stian @BergmanStian]

@gave_vincent The Chinese hairdresser talking his book again, thoughts? @matcasey

[Joseph Wang @josephwang]

Ending QT sounds dovish, but the balance sheet's final form could be pretty hawkish. That is what commentary so far suggests, even from the dovish members.

[Santiago Capital @SantiagoAuFund]

If the last week has taught us anything it is that calm markets require a calm divorce. And make no mistake, while this divorce is mutually agreed to, it is not amicable. And it will not end with a peaceful settlement in which everyone is happy.

[Warren Pies @WarrenPies]

I like the debasement framing. But, I know others are getting debasement fatigue ha - I get it.

Still, I don't find Joe's arguments convincing.

For the sake of discussion, here are my rebuttals:

"Home price growth slows to a crawl"

-Zoom out - Post-Covid house prices have increased by 8.5% annually vs 3.9% from 2010 to 2020.
-Looking at a portfolio of assets (weighted by U.S. household ownership) is a better way to measure debasement as the "blob" of liquidity shifts around the economy. On this basis, a portfolio of stocks, RE, gold and bitcoin has returned >13% post-covid (vs 9% from 2010 through 2020).

"It's been a good year for bonds"

-Understanding markets is all about bearing the weight of cognitive dissonance. We have been debasers AND have been positive on bonds. Debasement is a secular theme. However, the cyclical forces holding down yields are powerful. Oil is down almost 20% YTD...Wages have decelerated by ~50 bps...shelter CPI by 90 bps. Of course, the Fed is cutting and signaling more cuts (while the White House urges them on). At any other time in recent history, this backdrop would have pushed yields significantly lower. Yet, 10y only down 50ish bps. Hard to prove a counterfactual, but we can look at history and see this is abnormal.

"Colgate-Palmolive Slumps"

-Tbh, I have no idea why a toothpaste company would be the ideal debasement trade...seems like gold would be a better proxy. As a "macro person," I think it is worthwhile trying to understand why gold is up 60ish% YTD. Debasement is not perfect, but it is a good frame imo.

Just my 2cents...I enjoyed the article.

[Stian @BergmanStian]

@rohangrey Oh yeah, guy definitely deserved it 🙄 you seem like a real pleasant guy.

[Stian @BergmanStian]

@dampedspring @CognitiveInvest

[Stian @BergmanStian]

@Larryjamieson_ Where are you watching origin?

[Stian @BergmanStian]

@dampedspring Wait didn’t you just say 2 days ago that “budget outcome variance remains in the narrow range it has been since inauguration” that anyone who disagreed had no common sense?