Mathew Casey

Fmr CEO of political risk consultancy @pozieresconsult now Family Office focused on frontier markets. Stand by none of my market calls but all of my book reco’s

[Mathew Casey @matcasey]

Excellent piece. I suspect we’ll get at least one more proposal from Trump this weekend that tries to test the credulity of his supporters re: releasing funds, perhaps by leading with another “they’ve agreed to a deal” proclamation, likely another fade.

[Hamidreza Azizi @HamidRezaAz]

In my latest on Iran Analytica I explain why #Iran increasingly sees the ceasefire as a trap, how it is trying to maintain its leverage vis-à-vis Trump, and what that means for the prospects of a deal
https://t.co/hk05iKsSkN

[Mathew Casey @matcasey]

A sober take on why oil prices are where they are. The important question is where China’s line in the sand is, markets continue to vacillate on every Trump tweet, but when does China decide there’s no actual end in sight, it’s a stalemate & restarts oil imports.

[Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen]

I just had a very valid and good question from a colleague asking: Tell me do you think that we can say that we are in the middle of an oil crisis?

On paper, this is without doubt the largest oil market disruption ever witnessed. The effective loss of flows through the Strait of Hormuz has impacted a volume of crude oil, refined products and LNG that far exceeds previous supply shocks. Yet it does not feel like the biggest crisis. Aircraft are still flying, trucks are still moving, and natural gas continues to reach end-users without widespread rationing.

The reason is the exceptional response from several key players that has helped absorb much of the shock. A surge in US crude and fuel exports, a sharp slump in Chinese imports, coordinated releases from strategic petroleum reserves, increased pipeline exports bypassing Hormuz, and a degree of demand destruction triggered by higher prices have collectively prevented a major physical shortage from developing.

In other words, the market is experiencing the biggest disruption, but not yet the biggest crisis. The gap between the two has so far been bridged by emergency supply measures, inventory drawdowns and weaker demand. The real test will be how long these buffers can continue to offset a disruption that remains unresolved.

[Mathew Casey @matcasey]

“A Mechanism To Release Part Of The Frozen Iranian Funds” means how can we give Iran Billions of dollars without saying thats what we’re doing. Problem is that voters, Congress, gulf partners, none of them are stupid enough to buy it. But I doubt Trump will accept taking the L.

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

Agreement On The Release Of Frozen Iranian Funds In Its Final Stages

Trump Informed The Mediators Of His Refusal To Release Funds To Iran Before Signing Agreement

Proposal To Create A Special Fund For Depositing Frozen Iranian Funds Under Discussion

The Main Obstacle Relates To The Mechanism For Disposing Of Part Of The Frozen Iranian Funds Agreement On The Release Of Frozen Iranian Funds

In Its Final Stages The Search Continues For A Mechanism To Release Part Of The Frozen Iranian Funds

[Mathew Casey @matcasey]

Al Arabiya’s constant emphasis on the potential for released funds shows that while Saudi do not want to return to hostilities, they also don’t want Iran gaining access to billions of dollars in funds that could be used to prop up the regime in Tehran. Hard to see a compromise.

[Al Arabiya English @AlArabiya_Eng]

🔴 BREAKING: Discussions ongoing over mechanism to release part of Iran’s frozen funds, source familiar with the matter tells Al Arabiya

🔴 A US-Iran agreement is in its final stages, with the main obstacle relating to how part of Iran’s frozen funds would be handled

🔴 The source adds that Trump informed mediators that he refuses to release funds to Iran before the agreement is signed

🔴 Proposal to establish special fund to deposit Iran’s frozen assets is currently under discussion, according to source

[Shashank Joshi @shashj]

Very sorry to see that Sir Alex Younger has died of cancer, aged just 62. Younger's wife 'was shocked that he had never told his mother he was a spy, and so he did. “Yes, darling, so was I,” his mother replied.' https://t.co/6sfVIqBqpF

[Mathew Casey @matcasey]

The longer this drags on the higher the risk that either Iran or Israel unilaterally escalate hostilities. Given Irans recent shift in position, it seems more likely they’d escalate in response to the blockade than simply capitulate or collapse.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

TRUMP ON IRAN TALKS: IT COULD HAPPEN OVER THE WEEKEND

[Mathew Casey @matcasey]

I’m shocked…

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

NETANYAHU: ISRAEL IS READY TO RESUME FULL SCALE ESCALATION

[Mathew Casey @matcasey]

Lots of news floating around about this interview, but the actual interview was clearly taped before the escalation last night, something to keep in mind.

[Al Arabiya English @AlArabiya_Eng]

🔴 BREAKING: US President Donald Trump says Iran has agreed they will not have a nuclear weapon

🔴 Trump says Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is involved in negotiations with US and is giving approval in talks

🔴 Trump says will probably meet with Iran’s Khamenei at some point

[Mathew Casey @matcasey]

It was clear the hardline elements of the IRGC were winning the argument internally for a more forceful retaliation. The danger is this drags us back into full blown war as escalation is met with escalation.

[Mathew Casey @matcasey]

I have a hunch Araghchi & Ghalibaf are trying to get out in front of a significant retaliation/escalation by IRGC, trying to ensure the blame for the breakdown remains with US-Israel. Both have tried hard to maintain this narrative with the international community.

[Mathew Casey @matcasey]

Calibrated escalation as opposed to all out war suits both sides in the short term but that’s because both sides are so far apart on what an acceptable deal looks like. If neither escalate, US has to hope the blockade damages the regime before oil reserves run out. Hard to see.

[Babak Vahdad @BabakVahdad]

Today’s Iranian front pages are particularly interesting because they reveal how Tehran is trying to frame the Lebanon escalation internally.

- Kayhan openly argues that “the answer to fire is fire,” presenting military pressure as the only language Israel understands.
IRGC linked Javan adopts a more strategic tone, suggesting that deterrence itself is the mechanism through which a ceasefire can eventually be imposed.
Vatan-e Emrooz goes even further by emphasizing a “credible Iranian warning” and explicitly linking Beirut’s southern suburbs with northern Israel through the logic of mutual vulnerability.

- What is striking is that none of these papers are really talking about Hezbollah as an isolated Lebanese actor anymore. Lebanon is increasingly presented as part of Iran’s broader regional deterrence architecture.

- At the same time, these newspapers are not celebrating unlimited war. Even the hardest headlines repeatedly combine deterrence with concepts like “credible warning,” “imposed ceasefire,” and pressure designed to shape negotiations.
In other words, the Iranian debate increasingly looks less like “war vs diplomacy” and more like an attempt to use calibrated escalation as negotiating leverage without triggering a full regional collapse.

#Iran #Lebanon

[Mathew Casey @matcasey]

Just a reminder: INARA, the 2015 Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, mandates that the president transmit any agreement concerning Iran’s nuclear program to Congress within five days, triggering a review period during which lawmakers can approve or disapprove it.

[Commentary Donald J Trump Truth Social Posts On X @TrumpTruthOnX]

Fake News CNN said today, routinely, that my Iran Nuclear Deal doesn’t talk about Nuclear, when actually it states, very clearly, that Iran will not have a Nuclear Weapon. It then goes on, in very strong and lengthy detail, to discuss various other aspects of Nuclear. In fact, that’s what most of the agreement is about. CNN, and so many others in the Fake News Media, is a Low Ratings disaster. Even with new ownership, it is unlikely to ever get better!!! President DJT

( TruthSocial: May 31 2026, 7:27 PM ET )​​​‍​​‌‍​​‌‍​​​​​​​‌‍​​​​​​​‌‍​​​​​​​​‌‍​​‌‍​​​​​​​​‌‍​​​​​​​​‌‍​​​​​​​​​​‌‍​​‌‍​‌‍​​​​​​​‌‍​​​​​​​​​‌‍​​​​​​​​​‌‍​‌‍​​​​​​‌‍​​​​​‌‍

[Mathew Casey @matcasey]

I have a hunch Araghchi & Ghalibaf are trying to get out in front of a significant retaliation/escalation by IRGC, trying to ensure the blame for the breakdown remains with US-Israel. Both have tried hard to maintain this narrative with the international community.

[Seyed Abbas Araghchi @araghchi]

For immediate attention:

The ceasefire between Iran and the US is unequivocally a ceasefire on all fronts, including in Lebanon.

Its violation on one front is a violation of the ceasefire on all fronts.

The US and Israel are responsible for the consequences of any violation.

[Mathew Casey @matcasey]

Sounds obvious but the danger of these tit for tat exchanges is an inadvertent escalation. There is clearly an element within the IRGC that want to retaliate more forcefully.

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has announced that over the weekend it carried out several self-defense strikes on Iranian air defenses, radar, command-and-control sites, and one-way attack drones in Goruk, Iran and Qeshm Island. The strikes, which occurred Saturday and Sunday, were in response to recent aggressive actions by Iran, to include the shootdown of a U.S. MQ-1 Predator that was operating over the international waters of the Persian Gulf.

[Mathew Casey @matcasey]

@BobertBedford @GavMcCracken @dickbut This was excellent.

[Mathew Casey @matcasey]

@Larryjamieson_ I think reputation is going to become even more important, moving away from click-bait hyperbole, curating the fire hose of information & providing grounded contextualised analysis, all will still be important, probably higher walls, higher prices, smaller communities though.

[Mathew Casey @matcasey]

Want to know how bad it’s getting in Asia? They’re turning the lights off on highways to conserve energy in Thailand.

[Khaosod English @KhaosodEnglish]

The Department of Highways has announced new energy-saving measures that will see street lighting switched off on some national highways between 22:00 and 06:00, according to a notice published in the Royal Gazette. The measure is part of a Transport Ministry policy requiring state agencies to strictly reduce energy consumption, provided that road safety standards are not affected.

Under the directive, highway offices nationwide must assess and identify areas where lighting can be reduced without compromising public safety. The policy mainly targets four-digit national highways with low nighttime traffic volumes. Lighting will not be reduced in accident-prone or high-risk areas, including intersections, dangerous curves, bottlenecks, bridge approaches, U-turn points, blind spots, densely populated communities, or areas with frequent crashes.

Authorities are also instructed to ensure sufficient traffic signs and safety equipment are installed to warn motorists in advance where lighting is reduced. Additional signs or safety devices may be added if necessary. However, officials can immediately restore normal lighting if an area is later deemed unsafe or at greater risk of accidents.
The Department of Highways was also ordered to publicise the measures, educate road users, and continuously monitor the impact on public safety. #Thailand

[Mathew Casey @matcasey]

Screenshot from @Rory_Johnston does a better job than the link.

[Mathew Casey @matcasey]

Interesting signpost from @USTreasury overnight - OFAC has put the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) on their sanctions list, clearly indicating to shipping companies that they cannot pay any tolls. This deal looks so far from done right now. https://t.co/p9szB38q9T

[Mathew Casey @matcasey]

The presidency of the Security Council for June….Colombia’s lucky them! And July is even worse….DRC.

[Al Jazeera Breaking News @AJENews]

BREAKING: Iran-US draft peace proposal says if a final agreement is reached within a 60-day period, this will be approved in the form of a binding UN Security Council resolution

🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/1oDNlhRHCR

[Mathew Casey @matcasey]

Proclamations from Iranian state media should be given the same credence as a Trump “the war is over” post.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Iranian state media announces initial details of the "Memorandum of Understanding" for the US-Iran peace deal.

INITIAL DETAILS OF THE DEAL, PER IRAN:

1. US Military forces will withdraw from the vicinity of Iran

2. The US Navy will lift its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz

3. Iran has committed to restoring the number of commercial transit ships through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels within 1 month

4. Iranian state media says military vessels are not included in this draft agreement

5. The management and routing of ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will be handled by Iran in cooperation with Oman

6. If a final deal is reached within 60 days, this agreement will be approved in the form of a binding UN Security Council resolution

US oil prices extend losses to drop below $89/barrel.