BREAKING: The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage in the US rises to 7.43%, a new 2024 high.
We have not seen mortgage rates this high since early-December 2023, when the Fed said rate cut talks were "premature."
This means that the monthly mortgage payment on a $500,000 house with 20% down is now $3,500/month.
The $3,500/month figure also does not include property taxes, insurance, or maintenance.
Meanwhile, the median US home is now selling for a whopping $417,700.
Who's still buying a home?
The US housing market is in an untenable position - rates haven’t been this high in 20+ years.
The implications are twofold:
1) existing homeowners stay put and sit on their historically low mortgage versus sell their home and own a new home with a much higher mortgage.
2) inventory of available homes for sale shrinks and the total cost of ownership closes off many Americans from owning their most significant asset - and where most derive the bulk of their wealth.
So what happens from here?
This should continue to help the home builders who increasingly become the only game in town wrt inventory of available homes for sale.
Separately, add this to the column marked “Where the Fed feels increasingly motivated to initiate rate cuts 1-2 quarters sooner than they would otherwise”.
If the economy stays resilient, this probably isn’t until Q2/Q3 2024, but if we slow faster than expected, we could see our first cut in Q1-2024.
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