ThePongfather

Data Analysis & Risk Assessment:
Specializing in table tennis statistics for sports trading
"I have learned more from the tables than in any classroom."

[ThePongfather @BettorManPicks]

Updating (and hopefully simplifying) the guide to explain how to use my daily picks. I've tested a bunch of metrics and filters, but I'm only including the ones I use every day now. Also added a symbols key so the results are easier to interpret as well.

[ThePongfather @BettorManPicks]

@ModerateNGood @Cappin_Commie @Mr_MitchellLee @coversvanzack Hahaha, 1000%. Should your professional "highest level of football" kicker be able to make a 45 yard field goal? Absolutely. But sometimes you need a therapist more than a coach. Much like a goalie in hockey or a closer in baseball, it takes a special mentality to play it. 😂

[ThePongfather @BettorManPicks]

@coversvanzack @mccalejk @Mr_MitchellLee lmao fair play. It really doesn't matter. Honestly, the first thought I had after the blocked kick was "neither team wants to win this game". 😂

[ThePongfather @BettorManPicks]

@PAULMAR88310557 @sportswagers3 This is completely untrue. Look it up. Only 22% of games reach a third possession.

[ThePongfather @BettorManPicks]

@jdheimsch @sportswagers3 Only 22% of games reach a 3rd possession. Calling that "likely" is incredibly dishonest.

[ThePongfather @BettorManPicks]

@coversvanzack @mccalejk @Mr_MitchellLee Ultimately, you kick when you believe your kicker can make it. The Rams never got closer than 47 yards and Mevis himself had missed a 50 yarder earlier. Had the kick not been blocked, he probably makes the game winner. Rousseau made a play. It happens.

[ThePongfather @BettorManPicks]

@TheRealBobrek @SamHouston1023 @sportswagers3 Right...but if they don't score, you also know you only need a field goal to win. Having that info changes the tone of the drive. Really, this game is a bad example either way because neither drive ended in a conventional way (57 yard reception, followed by fumble/blocked FG).

[ThePongfather @BettorManPicks]

@mccalejk @Mr_MitchellLee @coversvanzack I wouldn't call a 45 yard kick "easy" when he had JUST missed a 38 yard extra point. Add to that false starts and fumbles, and it came down to running a clean play out of the 2 minute warning, and making sure Bass was ready.

[ThePongfather @BettorManPicks]

@Cappin_Commie @Mr_MitchellLee @coversvanzack It's because that wasn't an issue of clock management. It was kicker mental health management.

[ThePongfather @BettorManPicks]

@Mr_MitchellLee @coversvanzack Because Tyler Bass is extremely fragile and the Bills were out of timeouts. I'm guessing Joe Brady spent the 2 minute warning prepping Bass and making sure he was stable, rather than rushing him out onto the field in between plays or with the clock running.

[ThePongfather @BettorManPicks]

@jaredsmithbets Bills defense being gassed is the best argument for receiving I've heard. Otherwise, the argument for getting the ball 2nd is having the extra down. If you know you need points, you go for every 4th. And if you need a TD, you likely go for 2 since your defense couldn't stop them.

[ThePongfather @BettorManPicks]

@TheRealBobrek @SamHouston1023 @sportswagers3 It's less about that and more about having an "extra down". The team that gets the ball first isn't going to go for it on 4th on their own side of the field. The team that gets the ball second will if they know they need points.

[ThePongfather @BettorManPicks]

Keeping us consistent, one matchup for tomorrow, but they play twice. Best matchup on paper. Hope they live up to it! 🤞

[ThePongfather @BettorManPicks]

A little sweaty, would have been nice if Przewlocki had closed out his 9-8 lead in set 2, but at least he got it done in set 3. But I'll take the win.

[ThePongfather @BettorManPicks]

Staying conservative with the one match that meets the 93%+ NS%/70%+ 1ALL% filter again tomorrow. In theory, this is the strongest matchup on paper. Hoping for a good outcome! 🤞

[ThePongfather @BettorManPicks]

A bit of a roller coaster, but our one match for today hits in set 2. Thankful to get that one! 🙌

[ThePongfather @BettorManPicks]

Only match that clears the filters for tomorrow. May the odds be ever in our favor. 🤞

[ThePongfather @BettorManPicks]

1 for 2...Sturma screws us just like Jadczyk did yesterday. He led 6-8 and 9-10 in set 2 and couldn't close. Also led 6-7 in set 3. Lost all of it. Frustrating. 😞

[ThePongfather @BettorManPicks]

Small slate tomorrow, but looks solid on paper. Just need the numbers to stay that way! 🙏

[ThePongfather @BettorManPicks]

4 for 6. Meh, started off rough. Jadczyk had a 10-9 set 2 lead and couldn't close. Need more consistency from these high NS% matchups. We shall try again.