And on that note...lol. Here is another Cred Talk.
I call this one, "Red Light, Yellow Light, Green Light".
There are a couple main points I want to make here.
I have been getting some people asking me why I didn't take profits on my $CRV position a few days ago when I shared that I believed we would see a push below .25 at the minimum, sooner or later.
Here's why:
For those that watched my most recent Youtube vid, you'll recognize the chart below. In that Youtube video I talked about how I believed we would take the small range lows at .243 but wasn't sure if we would go for the highs at .30 first.
I also said that in either case, a sweep of the lows at .243 would just be an expected deviation before we continue on to my .40+ cent target that I have had for some time now.
So, my plan was simple. Potentially de-risk/take partial profits if we got the range highs first (RED LIGHT), potentially add to the position if we got the range lows instead (GREEN LIGHT). While we are in the middle? Do nothing (YELLOW LIGHT)- and that's just what I did.
If I knew, for a fact, that we would see .24 before .30, obviously I would have closed my position for a profit. But no one here can ever know anything with absolute certainty which this brings me to a key point about the market and trading it- the markets are not black and white.
This brings me to my 1st point of this talk:
The market is full of nuance, developing PA that changes by the day. As a trader you are constantly trying to analyze this data and make sense of it. There are many variables to consider- new variables that may come into play at any given time- with or without your knowledge.
You must adjust to these variables/changes, constantly.
90% of being able to do this is a mental game. Which is also why it's so important to approach these markets without emotion. I am currently down 50k on my position, but it doesn't faze me- why? Because I had a plan, was aware of this possibility, and took necessary steps to manage risk in anticipation of this situation potentially playing out.
If you find yourself become upset, angry, frustrated, or lashing out at people because of red numbers on your screen- guess what? It means you are way too emotionally invested- and the biggest reason for this is because you ignored risk management when entering the position and clearly went too big. This is a YOU problem, not someone else's problem, and no one can fix this for you- you must fix this issue yourself.
The 2nd point I want to make:
Whenever I reference targets/expectations on a chart, it is important to remember that markets do not move in straight lines. The lower the timeframe, the more volatility and uncertainty you can expect.
I have shared that the .40+ target remains, despite these lower timeframe movements. Nothing has changed on the higher timeframes which is why my positioning hasn't changed on the lower timeframes.
Too many people are expecting the "straight up to target" path depicted below when in reality the lower timeframes will be full of volatility, chop, and obstacles in an attempt to shake you out before the actual target is met.
This is not true not just for lower timeframe trades like this one on CRV, but higher timeframe moves like BTC and the path to 100k+. If you cannot see the bigger picture, or cannot handle the volatility inherent in these markets- especially the volatility on lower timeframes- stop trying to trade them.
Finally, I have access to the same tools that you do when approaching these markets. In fact I readily share the tools I use to come to the conclusions that I make so that you can learn and apply these ideas yourself.
Before pushing any buttons, you need to understand why you're buying/selling, regardless of what me (or anyone else here) is saying. YOU need to take responsibility for YOUR decisions. No one is forcing your hand here. No one is telling you what to do. We share ideas- and it's YOUR responsibility to make sense of them and decide whether you AGREE or DISAGREE.
If you AGREE and decide to act, take responsibility for the outcome, good or bad. If you disagree, then don't push any buttons. Simple. If you take action and then get upset at someone else for the outcome- you're copping out. Your avoiding facing the real issue which is a lack of risk management and/or understanding, and you will never fix this if you choose to blame someone else instead of facing it head on.
I want to see you succeed just as much as you want to succeed.
Thank you for coming to my Cred Talk.
Memes and hand wavey squiggly price scenarios aside, here is something actionable to help you navigate a false breakout.
For each scenario, imagine price has been consolidating in a ranging type structure for a period of time, prior to a breakout attempt to the upside, using a bullish example.
From experience, there are three types of false breakouts:
1. The Sweep
Quite simply, price breaks out of the range to the upside but fails to close outside the range, leaving a quick. Consider upside liquidity swept. Price is then likely to gravitate to the other side of the range.
2. The Deviation
Price manages to break out of the range for a short period of time, however doesn't manage to make any significant progress to the upside, before trading back inside the range. You can treat the deviation as your invalidation when entering shorts, again targeting the opposite side of the range.
3. The ******* **** ***
In this scenario, price makes a true break of the range with a close above, with strength and a good amount of travel. This is the scenario I want to focus on the most as it catches a lot of people out - and there are plenty examples of 1 and 2.
To illustrate, let's look at $INJ around Feb/March time of this year.
Keep in mind, INJ was one of the best performing assets of the bull market since January 2023. There was much anticipation of upside especially after 2 months of consolidation.
This is what INJ looked like pre-breakout in February:
@MaccasNZ how come I can't swap a free bigmac or quarterpounder burger for a mcchicken at the store? We don't eat beef for religious reasons and was hoping they would simply swap it without hassle, but the manager said no. This is Ormiston mcdz. Very disappointing.
GM frens in our phone ☕
#bitcoin and #Ethereum pushing up to the top of their local ranges once again
Will it be different this time?
Safe trading pilots 💪
I've been in crypto since 2017 and made the move to full time. Have been building in silence but plan on sharing more alpha soon. Drop a follow and get ready for some serious giveaways!
$2000 USDT #giveaway
Reply in my comments for what you are most grateful for.
Must LIKE RT & following to be entered.
Winner picked when I reach 200k followers.
#giveaway .... I am going to give 1 month premium membership of @WalshWealthWWG to one of my followers.
What you will get:-
1) 1 on 1 interaction with me.
2) Interaction with our legends @eliz883@CryptoGodJohn and all the mods.
To enter Please Like RT this tweet. Goodluck