Mr. Doink

[Mr. Doink @BigDoinkCapital]

@intern @blknoiz06 Gotchu

[Mr. Doink @BigDoinkCapital]

@LilMoonLambo Anyone else thought it was the Roku background?

[Minty @DeFiMinty]

My Altcoin Playbook for Spotting Opportunities

[Mr. Doink @BigDoinkCapital]

50 basis pt cut makes me more bearish than bullish. I think 2025 will be a great year for BTC, but I think these next 6-8 months will be rough while we price in the negative implications of such a large rate decrease before BTC breaks its correlation to the S&P

[Mr. Doink @BigDoinkCapital]

Let’s be honest. Posts like this are what cause me to be bearish. A few weeks ago, I was bullish. Now the SPX and BTC weekly look like they want to turn over. It doesn’t mean that I don’t think either in the long term go up and to the right, but we need a proper correction.

[Lark Davis @LarkDavis]

A 25bps rate cut is BULLISH

A 50bps rate cut is also BULLISH

Yes, there could be some volatility in the short-term

But in the long term, it's all mega bullish.

[Mr. Doink @BigDoinkCapital]

@yeeldfarm @veH0rny What’s his name so that I can watch more?

[Michaël van de Poppe @CryptoMichNL]

The #Bitcoin Surge is Close

It’s typical. The four-year cycle is taking place just like any other cycle, but the significance of this cycle is comparable to the 1930’s of Gold or the https://t.co/rFbY3kw4gd bust in 2000.

The impact of $BTC will be massive over the following decades.

The likelihood of a potential crash isn’t going to happen either; I think the markets are preparing for the biggest bull ever—the final bull before the big crisis happens.

It’s written in the stars, and the past days have shown that the U.S. economy is getting weaker week after week due to a failing economy and FED policy. The U.S. debt has broken through $35 trillion, which has gone vertical over the past few years.

The interest rates have been rising due to the high level of inflation. However, it’s a neverending doom cycle where the amount of QE is causing inflation to skyrocket, through which a temporary increase in interest rates resets the economy for a moment, after which inflation picks up again. Still, more importantly, more borrowing is taking place making sure that the bills can be paid to keep the economy going.

The only final thing that the U.S. has in its hands is the fact that it is the world reserve currency. However, that impact has quickly declined over the past few years as China and other countries have established BRICS as the biggest enemy of the NAVO and the U.S.

Additionally, more countries are opting out of the U.S. due to the current weakness of the Dollar. The economic data from the U.S. continues to show that rate cuts and QE are, again, required to keep the economy afloat.

I’ve been diving into Ray Dalio's books on the ending of cycles and debt-driven bubbles, and it’s remarkable, but we’re in the next big debt-driven bubble. Why is it so obvious that nobody actually thinks it’s happening? Nobody has experienced depression before. The last one took place in the 1930s.

During the 1920’s, gold prices were stagnant. Why was that? Precisely, the Gold Standard was in full practice, through which the price remained constant, until the big Depression of the 1930s took place and people were fed up with the economy of that actual period. Price rallied to $35 (after $20) in the years after the big fall of 1929.

Why am I sharing this? Well, currently we’re seeing that Gold has been rallying and has been printing new all-time highs, but value in the S&P, has barely moved. Inflation-adjusted, but it didn’t break a new all-time high.

In fact, Bitcoin hasn’t been breaking a new all-time high in either of the statements, so its four-year cycle is still on par.

The fact that I’m referencing Ray Dalio is the fact that we’re watching the U.S. fall down. It’s a slow process, but it’s happening. Economic data is getting worse day after day, as we can see that during this week:

Job Openings are terrible and the worst in 3 years.

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is the worst in 3 years.

Unemployment data is still coming up, and Non-Farm Employment changes as well, but the signs are getting worse. The US Dollar is losing momentum against other currencies, as the Canadian Dollar is showing a lot of strength alongside the Japanese Yen and the Euro.

This is exactly why Bitcoin is so important to have in your portfolio. It follows the pattern of Gold of the 1930s, and it will likely be the blow-off top of this cycle. I think that the next peak of Bitcoin is going to be the peak of the entire equity markets (or perhaps they are already peaking while Bitcoin runs up; who knows?).

During periods of uncertainty and changes from the ‘Top’ to the ‘Decline’, other assets are a safe haven for people who want to opt out of the current financial system. The institutions and boomers are doing this by buying Gold through ETFs, as that’s the standard, but other countries/people are going to be doing that by buying Bitcoin, as Bitcoin is hard money, which can be easily transferred.

The moment there’s more uncertainty surrounding the strength/weakness of the Dollar and the U.S. government, that would trigger people to buy Bitcoin and other assets. That’s likely going to come out of the rate cuts later this month. Rate cuts aren’t bullish; they are a sign of weakness for the markets, and the FED is likely going to be too late again.
Why are the stock markets running up? That’s not a question of the strength of these companies, no it’s a fact of fear from the people who simply don’t have a reason to keep their money in their bank accounts as the U.S. Dollar is losing purchasing power daily. Everyone puts everything on the table in the equity markets as those have been going up anyway, so people think that this will continue to do so until it doesn’t and that doesn’t part is going to have such a massive impact in their lives.

It is very comparable to real estate markets. ‘Oh, the real estate markets have been going up for 50 years in a row, they should be going up more from here’.

Yes, they might, but taking a full salary as a mortgage at this stage is insane. The interest rates are so high that monthly payments become ridiculous for people eager to buy a property, but it’s a rat race and people feel the need to buy a property as rental prices are going through the roof as well. What’s the best solution? If you are currently renting from years ago, stay. Just stay. If you’re planning to invest in a property. Don’t, just invest in cash, commodities, and crypto and hold for the next few years.

Bitcoin is going to surge significantly from the rate cut policy and the likelihood of QE. The worse the economic data, the heavier the impact will be on Bitcoin's interest, as Bitcoin is going to serve as the safe haven that Gold was in the 1930s—not as a hedge against inflation but as a hedge against the uncertainty of a failure of the U.S.

From that perspective and the uncertainties arising in the U.S., the likelihood of DeFi starting to soar is significant as well. People are likely heavily fed up with the current financial system and don’t want to be on the brink of bankruptcy themselves because they trust third parties in the form of banks.

No, they want to have self-custody and self-control over the decisions they make, something the people in the 1930s wanted themselves. From there, trust needs to be reestablished in politics, which is likely going to take years. Let's face reality: populists, left and right, are likely going to become larger in the coming years as social unrest increases substantially due to the increasing wealth gap.

Now, I think we’ll have to wait it out for a little bit, although I suspect we’re on the edge of a potential massive breakout of the markets after either the unemployment data or the rate cuts from the FED later this month. I also believe that we’re going to see an all-around crypto cycle where RWA, dePIN, and DeFi are going to be the backbones of the actual adoption cycle. Not memecoins.

[Mr. Doink @BigDoinkCapital]

@LSDinmycoffee @inversebrah We all know the answer.

[Mr. Doink @BigDoinkCapital]

@Randybg19 @IncomeSharks @ShardiB2 I think his thesis is, (which I side with), we’re due for a correction, especially in the SPX, but after the election there will be buyers from either side who support the presidents vision on the economy which can prop up the market.

[Mr. Doink @BigDoinkCapital]

@mrf1g Higher SPX and sideways BTC for next 7 days. I don’t make the rules.

[Mr. Doink @BigDoinkCapital]

@scottmelker Ah this explains the sell off

[Mr. Doink @BigDoinkCapital]

Something tells me SPX will put in new weekly highs, sell the news next FOMC meeting, then confirm triple weekly bearish Div for a large juicy correction before blasting off again after elections.

[Mr. Doink @BigDoinkCapital]

@Rager A main concern about this breakdown imo is if rate cuts are already priced in, then is btc breaking down because it was overbought, or is it because investors are seeing a recession ahead?

[Mr. Doink @BigDoinkCapital]

If the BTC monthly can’t hold 58.5k by close

[Mr. Doink @BigDoinkCapital]

@koreanjewcrypto I think local low is in now. Let RSI reset and probably attempt to retest 60k

[Alex & Books 📚 @AlexAndBooks_]

Every book Charlie Munger has recommended since 1994:

[Mr. Doink @BigDoinkCapital]

Btc bullish on daily. Let me zoom out to find something that sustains my bias.

Zoom out. Btc weekly bullish. Zoom out. Monthly bullish. Zoom out. Yearly bullish.

😒

[Baptiste @BaptisteVicini]

You're looking at one of the youngest self-made billionaires ever.

Born in rural Ireland, he was too poor to afford a wifi connection.

At 20, he dropped out of MIT — by 32, he'd built a $95 billion company more valuable than PayPal.

His 3 predictions for the future of tech will blow your mind:

[More Jesterly The Giver @lazyvillager1]

The Ethical Long: Cycles and Capital Formation

Since August 11th/12th, I began writing thoughts to capture my mental model around identifying inefficient capital allocation in crypto assets, and the market forces that drive positioning on the margin – which I believe is under-recognized today due to what has been a programmatic supply overhang (re: alt emissions, chunky BTC/ETH sellers).

The dislocation created by seemingly endless supply has resulted in four mass ~1B long liquidations this year, the most recent of which broke an 8-month BTC-trading range – which I interpret as a unique opportunity to challenge microstructure underpinning a) “flight to safety” positioning and b) decomposing what actually drives liquidity & markets.

My belief is that without new money: in a scenario where total available dollars available has shrunken vs. March & where previous-cycle ATHs have settled, order-book combativeness & psychology of the buyer vs. seller are the fulcrum underpinning how and why money moves

Herein, I seek to challenge the status-quo of what is considered the “safe” risk-barbell (BTC/SOL/Memes) by framing risk-reward in a structural way: starting at the majors and subsequently walking through the conditions that must be met to create a sustained trickle-down effect buoying alts, or specifically, “OTHERS.”

This is the result of my deep dive dissecting and reviewing L5Y price / volume / dilution history for 150+ names

[Mr. Doink @BigDoinkCapital]

@crypto_iso Happy to talk.