Bill Conerly

The economist who connects the dots between economics ... and business.

[Bill Conerly @BillConerly]

read the entire article on Forbes: https://t.co/Wv67FsJDE1

[Bill Conerly @BillConerly]

Consumer sentiment just hit an all-time low — but jobs are solid and incomes are holding. The real risk is oil prices, not a collapse in confidence. Sentiment surveys reflect the economy; they rarely move it.

[Bill Conerly @BillConerly]

Read my complete article on Forbes: https://t.co/6C8K9iHXw5

[Bill Conerly @BillConerly]

Recessions destroy weak businesses and reward prepared ones. Healthy companies can buy from aging owners facing falling revenue and burnout. Or they can acquire customers, equipment, and locations at prices unavailable in good times.

[Bill Conerly @BillConerly]

Read my full article on Forbes: https://t.co/sTjG8JsnNO

[Bill Conerly @BillConerly]

Oil price spikes cause recessions. Stable high prices—even at $100/barrel—don't. The damage comes from the adjustment to higher prices, not the price level itself. Businesses that understand this distinction plan better than those that just watch the headline number.

[Bill Conerly @BillConerly]

Watch on PMP Industry Insiders page: https://t.co/06BRhgSa2a
Watch on YouTube: https://t.co/0EMFRI7gAD

[Bill Conerly @BillConerly]

I discussed labor hiring challenges, a possible recession and contingency planning on the PMP Industry Insiders podcast. Although aimed at pest and lawn service business owners, the discussion applies to most small businesses with employees. Available on most podcast services

[Bill Conerly @BillConerly]

Oil prices drove inflation to 3.8%, topping wage growth of 3.6%—but history shows energy spikes reverse, and real wages recover within months

[Bill Conerly @BillConerly]

@DavidBeckworth "Recession is one of the best economics books I’ve read in a long time, and it’s accessible to the educated layman." from my Forbes review.

[Bill Conerly @BillConerly]

Read my entire article on Forbes: https://t.co/u4lp0FpJPe

[Bill Conerly @BillConerly]

280,000 extra Americans will hit first-time homebuying age within five years. The median buyer today is 40 — and today's 35-year-olds outnumber them by that margin. A demographic tailwind is building for single-family housing

[Bill Conerly @BillConerly]

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[Bill Conerly @BillConerly]

The Businomics Newsletter for May 2026 is out with charts on GDP, ship traffic through Hormuz, oil prices, consumer spending, home prices, small business, interest rates and REITs.

#economy #oilprice #recession

[Bill Conerly @BillConerly]

Read the article on Forbes: https://t.co/6BBs46Ypeh

[Bill Conerly @BillConerly]

Most recessions aren't caused by booms gone bust. They hit when several small shocks land at once, or one big shock comes along. Tyler Goodspeed’s new book, Recession, is timely with the Strait of Hormuz closed

[Bill Conerly @BillConerly]

Or watch my explanation on YouTube: https://t.co/WNxr9t58Fw

[Bill Conerly @BillConerly]

An oil shock doesn't just raise gas prices. It lowers consumer spending, forces layoffs in energy-intensive industries, and starts a chain reaction that reaches many businesses, even in the U.S.

[Bill Conerly @BillConerly]

read my full article on Forbes: https://t.co/WSQO3SIIZY

[Bill Conerly @BillConerly]

@michaelbrandorg Yeah, maybe. Who knows? I don't have a problem with millionaires or trillionaires, so long as they created value. Some, on the other hand, use government to extract value from others; no respect there.