Billy Polcha

News, current event follower.

[Billy Polcha @BillyPolcha]

@nigeleccles @capjack2000 is that Bipartisan "Prediction Markets are Gambling Bill" introduced by Senators so my thinking is that PMs with sports betting have a limited future post Trump if the SCOTUS does not shut down sports betting via PMs first.

Thanks

3/3

[Billy Polcha @BillyPolcha]

@nigeleccles @capjack2000 Kalshi just raised $1B in May 2026.

Reality is that Kalshi currently has lots of legal bills to pay plus Kalshi's operational costs have to be enormous thus IMO there is not much generational wealth to be had right now for Kalshi's founders.

As for the future of PMs there 2/

[Billy Polcha @BillyPolcha]

@MikeVorkunov @teamziller The real problems here are that too many teams qualify for The NBA Playoffs and The NBA plays way too many games during it's "regular season," all of leads to a draft process that is now very broken.

Sorry but all of these "NBA Draff fix ideas" are just dumb.

Thanks

[Billy Polcha @BillyPolcha]

@RufusPeabody @mattkalish @ryantrost @goldenpants013 Rufus, Matt clearly doesn't know the answer to your question but I do.

Matt needs to go sit in a corner by himself with a bag of "dum dum lollipops."

[Billy Polcha @BillyPolcha]

@inga1937 @aluckyaday @LimitedEver12 @halfkelly I don't feel like debating this last X/Tweet and I don't want to let myself get stuck in the past so I will change my mindset.....

Sports Betting has changed and evolved because of technology.

Thanks

[Billy Polcha @BillyPolcha]

@inga1937 @aluckyaday @LimitedEver12 @halfkelly Sports betting was fractured before prediction markets came along but yes technology has ruined sports betting.

Sports betting in the USA use to be about trying to pick winners vs the point spread but now sports betting is all about arbitrage & totally random prop/micro bets.

[Billy Polcha @BillyPolcha]

@aluckyaday @inga1937 @LimitedEver12 @halfkelly It's definitely broken & the prediction markets' existence because Trump got elected a 2nd time was not predictable.

[Billy Polcha @BillyPolcha]

@aluckyaday @inga1937 @LimitedEver12 @halfkelly The sports betting industry is now broken and it cannot be fixed.

It's sad, very sad.

[Billy Polcha @BillyPolcha]

@Bkclaims @goldenpants013 It is obvious that human beings love to play forecasting games that involve risking money however only one topic has mass market appeal & that is betting on sports.

The debate about the future of prediction markets is a Legal debate, not a debate about Silicon Valley startups.

[Billy Polcha @BillyPolcha]

@adamscochran @BrianQuintenz @sam_mcquill You seem new to Wall Street but thanks for trying to explain what happened here from your perspective

[Billy Polcha @BillyPolcha]

@adamscochran @BrianQuintenz @sam_mcquill Hey Sam for some reason Quintenz and his posse are not mentioning this 2021 CFTC ruling on NFL (sports) Contracts....

https://t.co/eqDShPotxo

[Billy Polcha @BillyPolcha]

@DonJamesSports @awfulannouncing Love Doggie but this is about Tiger's addition to pain pills and not saying so just makes things worse.

My guess is that Tiger finally went to rehab because of his son Charlie.

I genuinely hope that Tiger overcomes his addiction.

[Billy Polcha @BillyPolcha]

@andrewcourt1 @dan_bernstein_ Back in 2007 a bunch of leading economist issued a statement via The AEI-Brookings Center supporting PMs but now in 2026 Dr Hanson seems to be the lone public voice supporting PMs from this statement back in 2007.

https://t.co/5vdr2YwwQt

[Billy Polcha @BillyPolcha]

@andrewcourt1 @dan_bernstein_ IMO the prediction market terminology never should have been applied to Intrade about 15/20 years ago and since then this terminology has just stuck.

PM work in a small, controlled environment but todays PMs like Kalshi are very far from what Dr Hanson invented.

[Billy Polcha @BillyPolcha]

@astraffon @dan_bernstein_

There is precedent here as back at the end of 2020 and into the beginning of 2021 The CFTC denied the listing on NFL Contracts....

https://t.co/eqDShPotxo

[Billy Polcha @BillyPolcha]

@kkondik Got it & thank you!!

[Billy Polcha @BillyPolcha]

@kkondik I am currently in Youngstown, Ohio....

There are TVs ads for Vivek currently running in Youngstown but Vivek does not speak in these ads, his wife speaks for him. & this video that you posted here Vivek does speak in this ad either.

Vivek has a big likability problem.

[Billy Polcha @BillyPolcha]

@a_kane47 @astraffon My bad, correction = notional volume for trading is different than handle for sports betting nonetheless PMs need to figure out a way to pay some state taxes.

[Billy Polcha @BillyPolcha]

@a_kane47 @astraffon Amazon pays local sales taxes.

If I were a PM CEO right now I would be creating a tax-scheme to pay some tax dollars to each state based on the betting Handle my PM does per state....

This is the best way to make Fed & State Governments happy.

This is not rocket science.