Biofuel Burner

Biofuel enthusiast

[Biofuel Burner @BioBasedBurner]

@dunnde @Zerosumgame33 And no producer would give a real breakdown to the public of feed mix, sales destination mix, how they price their feed, how they price their RD, etc etc.

[Biofuel Burner @BioBasedBurner]

@dunnde @Zerosumgame33 “It depends” is accurate. Steep diffs in late Q2-Q3 and through Q4. High RVO->more RIN gen than LCFS incentivizes->price to move RD into LCFS states collapses because they are flooded with supply.

[Biofuel Burner @BioBasedBurner]

@Zerosumgame33 @toiletkingcap As TK alluded to, yield loss is a component. Also, your RD index isn’t really a translatable number nowadays to EBITDA. Yeah sure the BOHO indicates what the RIN should be doing, but CBOT*7.7 isn’t a real feedstock cost. And HO+LCFS credit isn’t valuable in today’s environment .

[Biofuel Burner @BioBasedBurner]

@nagp_comm @RinnyTheGopher @dunnde Great point. Idk how the math worked in west coast integrated netback vs Low CI export vs. midcon soy with state tax incentives. Also with inventory management, who knows what they actually choose to allocate toward LCFS states.

[Biofuel Burner @BioBasedBurner]

@RinnyTheGopher @dunnde @nagp_comm Not great, Canada was downgrade IIRC. Gulf RD prob made its way to midcon for veg oil. Integrated refiners could’ve made it disappear anywhere really. Low-CI will probably be the majority of what makes it into LCFS reports in Q3.

[Biofuel Burner @BioBasedBurner]

@dunnde @RinnyTheGopher @nagp_comm Going forward for Q3 (looking a ways ahead on data), I’m curious to see the avg CI for RD in Q3. May see a lower avg CI given the weak diffs Jul-Sep that wiped out all veg oil incentive to import into CA.

[Brett Gibbs @OilandGibbs]

The latest on Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs) and RINs.

We continue to expect ~1.8 billion RINs for 2025, our baseline as of late morning 8/21.

Since then, Ag and biofuel lobbyists have moved mountains.

The requested ‘compromise’ is reallocation.

🧵(1/7)

[Biofuel Burner @BioBasedBurner]

@nagp_comm @JarrettRenshaw @toiletkingcap Agreed

[Biofuel Burner @BioBasedBurner]

@dunnde @Zerosumgame33 Yeah current discount in CA basically wipes out CAR+Deficit+Soy LCFS.

[Biofuel Burner @BioBasedBurner]

@Zerosumgame33 I stand corrected. Current discount off of CARB+complex does get pretty close to that bulk CARB number

[Biofuel Burner @BioBasedBurner]

@OilandGibbs Veg oil cap in CA. Not necessarily misunderstood, but under-appreciated the supply and pricing mechanism impact in west coast markets. Highest demand and most “liquid” market with most built-out infrastructure on the west coast.

[Biofuel Burner @BioBasedBurner]

@toiletkingcap Streets are saying Brett immediately left KC to get to his NCAA tournament games over the weekend. Team needed their big man

[Bryan Sims @bsims1977]

Documents show Exxon executives knew a $500 million algae research project wasn’t meeting its goals outside the lab, even as they promoted it to investors as a potential boon #biofuels

https://t.co/SuISun7LFf via @WSJ

[Brett Gibbs @OilandGibbs]

It's happening!

[Biofuel Burner @BioBasedBurner]

@toiletkingcap Is giving Toilet King a swirly a sexual thing?

[Biofuel Burner @BioBasedBurner]

@Zerosumgame33 @JarrettRenshaw @EthanolRFA It’s a f’ing scary time on biofuel Twitter rn

[Biofuel Burner @BioBasedBurner]

@dunnde