Biotech Beast

Pharmacologist and biotech trader. Focus on trading around biotech catalysts. Tweets are not investment advice. May have a position in names I tweet about.

[Biotech Beast @Biotech_Beast]

@Tony_Calles Funny thing is (not really funny) at the end of the trial, the company will put out a press release thanking patients and families for their participation. If they were really grateful they might have at least had an SOC control arm.

[Biotech Beast @Biotech_Beast]

@Tony_Calles Sub-SOC control arms, an ongoing problem in clinical science. Why do doctors help companies run these trials? It can't feel good recruiting patients only to reward them with sub-SOC half of the time.

[Biotech Beast @Biotech_Beast]

@tiernan_chris There is still no efficacy data in AGA, and the competing antibody (HMI-115) completed a phase 2 from which no results seem to have been reported. I view AGA as high risk then, and yet it is the nearer-term readout. I'm more excited about the endometriosis indication.

[Biotech Beast @Biotech_Beast]

I've had a look at $CTMX here. I believe there is competition from $MKGAF's Precem-TcT, but that agent has a febrile neutropenia problem (I believe that can and should have already been addressed).

https://t.co/PfpoHsSlhL

[Biotech Beast @Biotech_Beast]

I'm long $CTMX and believe Varseta-M (masked EpCAM-targeting ADC) has potential in multiple cancers. I think the diarrhea problem is an issue, although an update on how they've done with budesonide added to the prophylaxis regime is expected this year.

[Biotech Beast @Biotech_Beast]

6 cycles CAPOX + toripalimab produces a 35.2% CR rate (24/65 patients) in pMMR locally-advanced rectal cancer. Relevant readthrough to $AGEN where bot/bal is in an IST for pMMR rectal cancer (likely w/ FOLFOX). Both radiotherapy-free regimes.

https://t.co/xpp1ELdK2J

[Biotech Beast @Biotech_Beast]

@5_utr I don't know if you can see it, but they've added a community note to the original post now.

[Biotech Beast @Biotech_Beast]

@PersimmonTI Well any differentiation would be soured now anyway with the IP questions if RVMD is suing.

[Biotech Beast @Biotech_Beast]

@GypsyNoLonger It does look compelling, if its better than IBI363/TAK928 it'll be a game-changer. It'd be nice to get rid of the grade 5's seen with IBI363.

[Biotech Beast @Biotech_Beast]

@richtrades100 $HRTX nice rally today, could see further squeeze from here.

[Biotech Beast @Biotech_Beast]

$TARS cheaper with the recent pullback, but I don't feel the story has changed overall this month, so I remain long and will consider adding more.

[Biotech Beast @Biotech_Beast]

I'm still long $TARS and find the appointment of former Allergan Inc CEO and Chairman, David Pyott, to the Board of Directors to be a positive. A further positive is 2026 guidance for Xdemvy net sales of $670M-$700M.

[Biotech Beast @Biotech_Beast]

Beyond Xdemvy for Demodex blepharitis, trials of lotilaner for ocular rosacea and tick-killing/Lyme disease prevention are underway, with $TARS expecting results from both in H1'27.
https://t.co/yiIhA19bLS

[Biotech Beast @Biotech_Beast]

@jryckman3 @DrSamuelBHume @TimothyJBrownMD It probably means DCR6, so just not having progressive disease at the first scan at 6 weeks. Obviously there are various criticisms of the metric.

[Biotech Beast @Biotech_Beast]

The RECLAIM data is expected in Q3'26, although my calculations show it should complete prior to that, so I doubt a late Q3'26 read. Still $ALT has been fundraising for its phase 3 MASH study, which could limit any run up into Q3'26 results from RECLAIM.

https://t.co/GTdZWyDkeX

[Biotech Beast @Biotech_Beast]

In 2025, $ALT had a big run up into data from the phase 2b IMPACT trial of pemvidutide in MASH. Now the company expects to report topline data from the RECLAIM study of pemvidutide in alcohol use disorder.

[Biotech Beast @Biotech_Beast]

$TGTX is guiding for total global revenue of $875M-$900M for 2026, but I think $1B+ is possible, as the increased marketing push plus DTC advertising is a recent change in the launch, and is probably only just kicking in.

https://t.co/cfDNeE5lTu

[Biotech Beast @Biotech_Beast]

Another name that could get bought out is $TGTX. It's possible a potential acquirer would wait for pivotal data from subcutaneous Briumvi, expected EOY-2026/Q1'27. There is also upcoming data from ENHANCE, a trial of a simplified IV dosing regime, expected mid-2026.

[Biotech Beast @Biotech_Beast]

With Vinay Prasad gone from the FDA, $REPL's chances of approval of RP1 might have increased. Still, $IOVA's improved commercial execution in melanoma also bodes well for any subsequent launches.

https://t.co/uhKtMdEK8I

[Biotech Beast @Biotech_Beast]

$IOVA's Amtagvi launch is making progress in melanoma, and clinical/regulatory success in lung cancer could open up a market several fold larger than the current melanoma indication. Although $REPL's RP1 could be approved April 10, so a near-term risk.