Keith Abrams

Clinical psychologist, sex therapist, sex educator. Long-time SMID-cap biotech investor Stanford alum. Horse racing degenerate. Happy husband and father of 4.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

$MLYS - I find it puzzling & amusing that the stock price took a big hit today when all the company did was show confidence in its lead product by buying back royalty rights and adding to the balance sheet in a non-dilutive way. Strikes me as quite bullish, thus happy to re-buy.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

@JackMan724444 @FeldtInvesting @RodLambertCPA NO, you're just guessing about peak sales that are many years in the future.

Show me a model with revenue and EPS figures, discounted back however many years you're projecting.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

$ABVX - sold at $85, no shame in a 20% profit for a 1-day trade. While bullish on their lead drug, one of the things I find hardest to do is to value companies with potentially blockbuster drugs that have not yet come to market. At a $6.5B MC, doesn't seem under-valued to me.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

Bought 1/2 position in $ABVX at 70.30. Not my usual style, but think the odds of a rebound by end of week are greater than continued price degradation. Likely a short-term trade for me.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

@JackMan724444 @FeldtInvesting @RodLambertCPA NO.

Again, show me your valuation model, discounted to present-day.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

$MLYS - bought 1/2 position, will buy other 1/2 when I sell something.

Stock price almost cut in half from 52-week highs. Don't much care if they go it alone or sell themselves - I'm a big fan of their lead drug and now they have the resources to go either way comfortably.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

@RodLambertCPA @JackMan724444 The issue is what is your valuation model AND being sure to discount back to YE26 or YE27 to come up with a price target.

Biotech is filled with examples of companies whose price shot up post-trial results and remained stagnant or declined for years afterwards.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

@avidresearch My take is the opposite. Company ensuring they have the resources to launch successfully on own. Don't see a b/o happening until further down the road (if at all), perhaps 1 year after commercialization.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

Bought 1/2 position in $ABVX at 70.30. Not my usual style, but think the odds of a rebound by end of week are greater than continued price degradation. Likely a short-term trade for me.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

@semodough Agreed. Would add smaller-cap bios like $DERM $HRMY $RIGL $TCMD $ZVRA and one bigger one - $LEGN.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

Sold $LEGN for 25% s-t profits as other bios are getting to be more attractively valued given biotech indices pullback.

Am making more s-t trades than usual, involving mostly same group of names that I like. Trying to "buy low, sell higher", taking advantage of volatility.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

$LEGN: Re-bought at 11% discount from where I sold last week. Love profitable growth SMID-cap biotechs. Also has deep, early pipeline and $949m in cash for potential acquisitions. EV/prod revenue is on the under-valued side IMHO.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

$DERM - bought full position yesterday. Hadn't followed them closely in awhile, but upon a re-examination, think they're among the cheapest growth/near-term profitable biotech micro-caps extant. And always loved the Emrosi data. Think they could be set up for a strong Q2 and FY.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

@WoodyWoodPal Nothing is easy, bit at your mouth be a prayer book"!

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

$VRDN - bought full stake yesterday in low $17s. Very bullish on June 30th PDUFA data given data & w both Velig (less freq IVs) and Elig (1st self-admin sub-cu form to file Q127), they're poised to be major players in underserved TED market. Eur part deal in 2H26 possible bonus.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

$AMLX - bought full position yesterday. Am very bullish on Q3 Ph3 readout in post-bariatric hypoglycemia and sales potential as possible 1st approved treatment. Will almost certainly hold thru data, then reassess.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

$KYTX - re-bought full position at 21% discount to where I sold last week. Intention is to hold > 1 year. IMO their lead drug could be transformative in select indications & at < $8.60, the entry point is enticing.

Sold $VIR for minor profits to raise $, may re-buy 2H26.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

@NightOwlBiotech Very helpful, many thanks!

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

@17thfellow My cost basis is < $10, so:

IMO it's quite undervalued, w an EV/prod rev of about 1.0. Too, it's 52-wk high was $37+.

I want to take l-t gains in 2027 as my tax bill is big enough for 2026 as is.

IMO, they are a very safe bet over l-t w very limited downside.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

Current positions in order of size:

$TCMD $TECX $ZVRA $LEGN $SPRB $CTMX $CRVS $VIR $LRMR $IDYA $AVIR

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

Update on recent transactions:

Sold $RGNX for a sizable loss.

Sold $KYTX for sizable gains.

Will sell $CMPX next week for a big loss.

Sold $HRMY, $HROW, $ARDX $IOVA, covered $KYMR for minor gains - just like l-t potential of recent buys better, but still like the first 4.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

@mdpmartymdp $HRMY just "doesn't seem to get any respect", and I'm not real bullish on the Ph3 PWS study. However, I'll try to re-buy before the Draven & LGS data in 1H27.

$HROW is more fairly valued now, and needs a "show me" quarter or two to regain inventor confidence.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

Update on recent transactions:

Sold $RGNX for a sizable loss.

Sold $KYTX for sizable gains.

Will sell $CMPX next week for a big loss.

Sold $HRMY, $HROW, $ARDX $IOVA, covered $KYMR for minor gains - just like l-t potential of recent buys better, but still like the first 4.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

@jfais20 Agreed. One of my "portfolios" is named "Discontinued" - stocks I used to follow closely, but decided they weren''t enticing enough to do so - but I still keep an eye on them.

$SPRY a new name for me, will do more DD.

Have a great weekend!