Keith Abrams

Clinical psychologist, sex therapist, sex educator. Long-time SMID-cap biotech investor Stanford alum. Horse racing degenerate. Happy husband and father of 4.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

$LYEL - that was some impressive data they just released!!

Makes up for premature $MDGL entry, though still bullish on stock. Agree with others that so many pts. have been treated if there was a safety signal we'd know about it.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

$LYEL - bought 30% more at < $7.40 as it hit 52-wk lows w a negative EV. Ronde-cel w RMAT, data update Q4, final pivotal 3L+ data Q327, with head-to-head Ph3 2L trial current. 2nd drug to beg pivotal next yr w Ph1 updated res this Q. Promising data to date. Insiders own 35%.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

$MGDL - Super impressed by Q3 call. Fave part: they've attained only 10% penetration into F2/F3 NASH & only 10% of pts. have been dx'ed - and the # of identified pts. con't to grow at double-digit rates. Then factor in Ph3 results in F4 NASH YE27 as add'l mrkt.

Long-term hold!

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

$MDGL - couldn't resist, bought full position at $393. Unsure if short-term trade or long-term hold, but either way, love the growth trajectory and now significant (and growing). profits.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

$MDGL - couldn't resist, bought full position at $393. Unsure if short-term trade or long-term hold, but either way, love the growth trajectory and now significant (and growing). profits.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

@RichardTip17589 I sold for a loss 3-4 weeks ago @ $2.54, in part to take the tax loss and b/c I think I'll be able to buy back prior to data release. Haven't decided if I will buy back, and not sure the stock moves much based on that data update. But the r/r at these levels is attractive.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

$CTMX - bought yesterday on weakness. I like buying great data at a price well below secondary raise on a "red" market day.

While I might be tempted to hold s-t for quick profits (if possible), I'm content to hold l-t as I'm very bullish on Varseta & its market opportunity.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

$DERM - re-bought at $5.0 after selling in Sept. at $6.2. Very cheap EV/prod rev ratio, incr. sales of best-in-class lead drug (which beat the comp in a hd-to-hd Ph3) w possible ex-USA deals to come, and added another derm product last Q. Profitable.

Attractive R/R from here.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

@princetongb What are the odds that they receive a Priority Review (for which they've applied)? They already have RMAT status.

I'd expect a nice move if/when they announce NDA acceptance with Priority Review.

Either way, I'm holding long-term.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

@semodough Per the Cantor transcript, CEO said there is little correlation between the likelihood of success for the Tibu trials in HS, SSc, & PMR, calling them "independent" shots on goal. Hence, while the market will surely severely punish a trial failure in HS, not sure it's binary.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

$PHAT - re-bought (sold at $10.50 in June) due to perceived over-reaction to (very unlikely to succeed) lawsuit. They've beat estimates 4 Qs in a row, will be profitable in 2H26 w con't growth ahead.

Exceedingly cheap based on EV/prod rev ratios of 1.3 and 0.7 for '27/'28.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

@tradingbios Good luck, I'm rooting for you!

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

@Mahmissa It would be one of my top "shorts" but I've sworn off shorting bios. I also think the valuation is absurd, but presumed irrationality sometimes knows no bounds.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

@Mahmissa I'm surprised, doesn't seem like the type of bio you prefer. I'm curious as to why you see it as an attractive (s/w binary?) play.

I presume the FDA clinical hold is still current? I'm skeptical of small N Ph2 data to date. Too, don't like that Insiders hold < 0.5% of shares.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

$VIR Re-bought full position at $10. I believe they'll have best-in-class data for HepD at YE/Q1, like the rest of their pipeline, and like the vote of confidence that partners like Norgene, AST, and GILD have shown. Enough cash for 2 more full years, no debt.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

$ZURA - bought full position. A new name for me until @A_May_MD tweeted it - kudos to him for sharing such a detailed analysis. Did my dd and agree w him that the r/r at these levels is enticing. I like the show of confidence in lead drug via starting a 3rd (Ph2) indication.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

@A_May_MD Really appreciate you putting your report out for public consumption, thanks!

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

@tradingbios thought they planned to file the sNDA in Q127, not aware/don't remember why launch wouldn't therefore be in 2028 if no trial data/FDA hiccups.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

$HROW - re-bought at $28. Will try to be patient and hold long-term, because in the long-run this is an impressive growth biotech company with increasing market share and profits - trends that should be in place for years to come.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

@tradingbios Let's see what Q3 and Q4 bring. If they come close to their goal of $250m in revenue in Q427 without much help from G-melt product (launch YE27?), then surely they'll do $1B in revenue in 2028, no? Just seem quite cheap to me given current $1.2B EV and yrs of growth ahead.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

$LYEL - bought 30% more at < $7.40 as it hit 52-wk lows w a negative EV. Ronde-cel w RMAT, data update Q4, final pivotal 3L+ data Q327, with head-to-head Ph3 2L trial current. 2nd drug to beg pivotal next yr w Ph1 updated res this Q. Promising data to date. Insiders own 35%.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

@shirefindsvalue Quite high. The have BTD and seen to been having a production dialogue with FDA over the past year.

[Keith Abrams @DeepSouthDoctor]

$SPRB - re-bought full position at $43. EV of ~ $30m, will file NDA this Q for rare disease drug. FDA interactions have been positive, and gets Priority Review Voucher if drug gets approved in indication with no approval. tx. Sales price of PRV worth > 1.5x current market cap.