@JackMan724444@DeepSouthDoctor How do you arrive at those peak sales? KOL was cautious about positioning for obefazimod in ulcerative colitis (UC), with limited first-line uptake (~10-15%) versus stronger potential in later lines.
@JackMan724444@seedy19tron@sleepydragon01 Ph3 maintenance is the true test! Because you have responders and partial responders in this group vs. full remission population. And some responders were switched to double blind placebo.
@seedy19tron@sleepydragon01 But don’t you think the 3-year OLE was another de-risking event for obe $abvx? So Friday’s data AH was bullish not inconsequential IMO. Obviously ph3 maintenance delta is still a huge binary.
@CatPunksters Especially considering that study 108 incorporated endoscopic healing/maintenance as a required component. Endoscopic data provides objective, visual evidence of direct mucosal healing in the gut lining, rather than relying solely on subjective patient-reported symptoms. $ABVX
@JackMan724444@biotech_jack Because broader Phase 3 population (induction responders, including partial ones) will show more attrition than pure OLE. Open label population was highly selected (ie already in clinical remission.) $abvx
@JackMan724444@BiotechCLin@seedy19tron Do you mean 35+ delta for the stand alone 50mg cohort? That’s too high of a bar for the ‘blended’ trial design. $abvx
@seedy19tron $abvx expected delta for obe maintenance is 20% to 30%…is that blended dosage, or just the 50mg cohort? Seems like 25mg is unnecessary given obe safety profile. Don’t think doctors in practice will ever dose down patients to 25mg.
@seedy19tron@DominickCampag Aren’t you concerned that the placebo maintenance remission rate will drift much higher than the low pbo floor established during induction? Thinking this because of the "enriched" patient pool of responders only.
@DominickCampag@seedy19tron That’s a high bar..If delta is > 30%, obefazimod will be the undisputed first-line advanced oral treatment for Ulcerative Colitis (UC). Stock will moon and a bidding war will ensue IMO.
@unemon1 Wouldn’t the equity tranche include a risk premium, meaning a higher stock price valuation over and above the assumed buyout price. Just because even after a deal is officially announced, it could still, in theory, fall through?
@A_May_MD@bioadvo@ScribblesTay Any buyout premium (above EV) once the BO is announced would have to be shared among more equity shareholders, if there is an equity raise. Isn’t that the issue?
@unemon1@user489202848 But Abivax was not added/removed in the March 2026 reviews for rebalancing. EURONEXT rebalancing does not explain a 20x magnitude outlier in volume spike.
@Agent0088156721 Grok: Friday’s (March 20, 2026) Euronext volume of 3,136,317 shares for $ABVX.PA ranks as the #1 highest daily volume in the past year (out of roughly 250–252 trading days from ~March 2025 to March 2026).