avidresearch

[avidresearch @avidresearch]

@AaronRosenblum5 @Archimedes20311 What’s your expectation for mPFS for HpV+ve group for petosemtamab ?

[avidresearch @avidresearch]

ORR overall is 48.6% if pembro arm has ORR of 23%. Expect ORR in HPV +ve to be a tad bit below overall (better in HPV -ve in ph2).

$INBX HPV +ve ORR is 80% (vs likely in high 30s or low 40s for Peto)
Not sure why market is hyperventilating

[Robert Coffin @robertcoffin3]

On $GMAB while this is clearly great for patients, I note that they report an odds ratio for ORR of 3.17 - if the control arm has the expected ORR of 19%, that would mean that the LiGer+pembro arm would have an ORR of around 43%, ie substantially lower than the prior ph2 data (>60%) - $BCAX are certainly still in play in my view (and they may both ultimately provide complementary therapies too)

[avidresearch @avidresearch]

@AaronRosenblum5 @Archimedes20311 Here is one recent example of this design (project Optimus)
->
First-Line Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC): Olomorasib + Pembrolizumab Combination

[avidresearch @avidresearch]

@AaronRosenblum5 @Archimedes20311 U think they will run a separate ph3 trial (vs seamless randomized ph2-> 3 design) ?

[avidresearch @avidresearch]

Ph2 portion is small and ph3 portion will be larger. I am taking about ph3 enrollment being fully underway before Peto is approved.
What’s delusional about 30% CR rate and 80% ORR having a clear sight to SOC for HPV -+ve?
What kinda ORR and mPFS are you expecting from Peto in HPV +ve subgroup ??? Let’s start from there.

[avidresearch @avidresearch]

$INBX Randomized and controlled (pembro mono) ph2 study in HpV +ve already recruited 20+ subjects and showed stellar data.

The same study will seamlessly transition to ph3 for confirmatory evidence and will be close to full enrollment before Peto gets approved by FDA.
Peto is a great drug but expect mPFS in HPV +ve to be below the IO/IO combo from $INBX.
An IO combo with 80% ORR (and a long PFS tail typical of IO combos) has a very high potential of becoming SOC in HPV+ve HNSCC.

[avidresearch @avidresearch]

@Archimedes20311 Peto started with small datasets and efficacy has largely remained consistent. $INBX is running a randomized control ph2 trial. Credit where it’s due. Update with more subjects likely in early 2027.

[avidresearch @avidresearch]

@Bernardo_D1983 Yes.

[avidresearch @avidresearch]

$MRNA price action is a joke.

[avidresearch @avidresearch]

Masked CTLA4 with much better safety compare to Ipi

[TradeXchange @TheTradeXchange]

$ADAG - Adagene Announces Dosing of First Patient in Phase 1 Study of Muzastotug in Combination with Incyte’s INCA33890 in Patients with Microsatellite Stable Colorectal Cancer

[Bio Stocks™ @BioStocks]

$GERN halt 🚨

[avidresearch @avidresearch]

Congratulations

[Professor Oak @Prof_Oak_]

Surprise 1: Anthropic acquired a one-person biotech
.
.
.
Surprise 2: that person is me
Surprise 3: I’m here to tell you all about it

Yes, this is what you think it is; after 6 yrs of increasingly loose anonymity: the Professor Oak reveal post

…and yes, it has gotten so boring around here that I’m literally doxxing myself to spice up the timeline

-------
Ok, allow me to introduce myself. My name is Cody Tranbarger. I mostly tweet, but occasionally find time to dabble in drug dev & starting/building biotechs. My past lives span the VC, crossover, startup continuum; Prof Oak has been my way of keeping a digital foot in those worlds, despite having my physical feet planted elsewhere.

The past 18 mo, ‘elsewhere’ was Mithril Medicine, a co. I founded to develop bsAbs for LAMA2-CMD & other ECM-related genetic diseases.

Mithril was born out of hands-on building with @MikeNGladstone, @JasonPaulRhodes, @LifeSciVC, & team @atlasventure. Somehow, I made enough half-decent calls along the way (even a broken clock is right twice a day, eh?) to convince them Mithril/I warranted a small seed. While I can hardly rationalize such an outrageously cavalier bet, I’m grateful for it, & I'd partner with Atlas again in a heartbeat.

In typical AV fashion, Mithril’s primordial form was virtual, decentralized, & ultra-lean. This stage tends to be short-lived, but for Mithril, it worked surprisingly well, for surprisingly long, thanks in part to the rapid maturation of the AI tools I used liberally.

Eventually, Mithril became a bit of an experiment itself - to find the upper bound of how far it could scale as a single operator + a bunch of Claude (+ a stellar bench of part-time consultants).

In parallel, I started spending time with @nc_frey, @an1lam, & @CoefficientBio team; and promptly experienced, for the 1st time, AI at the frontier. Soon thereafter, Mithril stopped looking like an experiment, & started looking like a preview of an entirely new operating model.

From that spark came “Pipeline-in-a-Person.” The idea immediately resonated when we shared it here back in April; and it was central to the shared vision that led to Anthropic’s acquisition of Mithril, & my joining the team.

Why join Anthropic? Three reasons.
(1) For Mithril, the programs continue, with more resources & infrastructure behind them, and as much Claude as I can put to work.

(2) For me, the chance to start several more programs, & find out how many one person can actually run in parallel - an almost unprecedented luxury for a curious drug hunter.

(3) For our mission, a path to institutionalize & scale this new way of working, then put it in the hands of all of biopharma, all over the world - which, candidly, I find the most energizing.

Will AI x Bio cure diseases? Unequivocally yes, imo… but not by the route that gets the most airtime. Rather than timeline acceleration & compression, I see orchestration & parallelization as today's low-hanging fruit.

Most drug hunters see a handful of go/no-go calls in a career, & spend entirely too much of the rest trading emails (my inbox can attest).

Give them the bandwidth to run several programs at once, and the time to focus on scientific judgment, and I’m willing to bet they’ll make better calls. And at scale, better calls translate to more drugs, higher hit rates, broader patient impact, & likely, a disease or 10 or 100 cured. I couldn't be more excited to build toward that future @AnthropicAI.

Finally, a heartfelt thank you to BioTwitter/X. The end of anonymity is bittersweet, but if anyone’s earned a proper introduction, you all have.

It’s difficult to overstate how much this app has done for me: a decade of education, plenty of friends, many job opportunities, several mentors, a few investors, even a co-founder (fmr). It was the generosity of this community that inspired me to start posting 6 years ago, after just as many years lurking. I hope I’ve been able to pay it forward, in my own small way.

But, to be clear, Prof Oak isn’t going anywhere. Same beat, same themes, and now, a front-row seat to drug development at the frontier. Stay tuned for dispatches from the trenches; and remember...

Gotta Cure 'Em All

[avidresearch @avidresearch]

Use paper tests. Not sure this is as complicated as they make it sound.

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: UC Berkeley math professor stops grading homework for correctness, saying widespread AI use has made it "pointless," and now awards credit simply for turning in assignments.

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: UC Berkeley math professor stops grading homework for correctness, saying widespread AI use has made it "pointless," and now awards credit simply for turning in assignments.

[avidresearch @avidresearch]

$TNGX hilarious price action to highly durable ~80% response rate in 2L PDAC.

[Jeff Farley @TradeInTheZone]

For the first time in history, nearly 60% of the S&P 500’s components are in a bear market, while the index trades 3% away from a record high.

[Almu @almudenally]

More proof of the limited efficacy of Topo1 ADCs after a prior Topo1 #ESMO2026

[(((The Daily Shot))) @SoberLook]

Unlike the dot-com bubble, when global technology stocks surged far ahead of earnings, the current rally has been supported by stronger earnings growth.

Source: @steve_donze