Jonathan Faison

Founder of the ROTY Community (500+ investors & traders) | Biotech Hobo | Not Prince Harry. Proverbs 21:31

[Jonathan Faison @jfais20]

Most friends know my story, but new followers probably don't - short version:

-Am a Wall Street Nobody, started investing in 2008 with no one to teach me & made every mistake in the book (& then some, very lucky to have survived them)

-Writing on SA been a hobby for long time (comments were brutal, forced me to keep improving & showed just how little I truly know about this sector)

-After university went to Peru (figured have some fun before getting a "real job", 6 months turned into 15 years there 😂

-Committed career suicide by quitting a lucrative finance job to instead teach English at university. One night out at a club with friends, met a salsa dancer then turned into a 10yr relationship/7yr marriage

-Along the way, used clinical-stage biotech wins to start a couple successful businesses (restaurant & fashion), also bought a condo to diversify. Biggest binary loss was ironically not biotech but instead a divorce Xmas 2021 (such is life sometimes, thankful for what I got)

-Started from square one again as a biotech hobo, spending about 3 months in each country for 2+ years now. Life often turns out differently than we expect, but it's still pretty grand and good reminder that God always has a plan for each of us 🤙

Normally don't deviate into the personal, but hope it gives perspective for anything I post in the future

Cheers my friends 🙂

[Jonathan Faison @jfais20]

$XBI - Been a tough stretch, portfolio gave back some gains. Now just +21% YTD

Focusing on the controllables, holding patiently where thesis warrants

Still have EHA in a week for our heme names, catalyst-filled late Q2 to Q3 as well

Near term price action is anyone's guess (no crystal ball from my end)

Continue running our Portfolio Cagematch exercise vs other ideas on radar

Daily scans for new ideas, deeper work where warranted, repopulate Playbook with more high-quality setups

I am as boring as they come, just sticking to the process

[Jonathan Faison @jfais20]

Find it funny that this video is getting legs- was @WassimLaroussi3's last minute idea

[Wassim Laroussi @WassimLaroussi3]

I sat down with Jonathan Faison @jfais20 (Founder of ROTY) in Panama City for a raw, unfiltered conversation. We talk nomad lifestyle, risk, freedom, and the mindset needed to survive the volatility.

Watch Part 1 now: https://t.co/ox7oH4CGTD

#Biotech #Investing #DigitalNomad #Panama #Stocks #TheBiotechlnvestor

[Jonathan Faison @jfais20]

$XBI - an encouraging tidbit during an otherwise tough stretch in biotech

[S A I ™️ @WallStSai]

WE HAVE GOT LOT OF M&A CAPACITY. IF THERE WAS A GREAT ASSET WE SAW VALUE IN THAT OTHERS DIDN'T, WE WILL DO IT. WE HAVE GOT $18 BILLION IN THE BANK - $REGN REGENERON CEO, LEN SCHLEIFER

[Jonathan Faison @jfais20]

@jayabacus 👊

[Jonathan Faison @jfais20]

Was reminded by smarter minds to remember we're all on the same team

We all (most of us) want to see each other win & do well

Worth keeping in mind when we disagree 👍

[Jonathan Faison @jfais20]

$KURA (L)

Preclinical studies showed enhanced anti-tumor activity across multiple classes of RAS inhibitors (mutant & multi-selective RAS(ON) + pan-KRAS & pan-RAS)

Will start combo study with $RVMD dara in PDAC

Foundational backbone for molecularly defined cancers

$100M EV

[Jonathan Faison @jfais20]

A timely (if harsh) reminder on volatility from Mr. Munger:

"If you can’t handle a 50% drop, you’re not fit to be a common shareholder, and you deserve the mediocre result you’re going to get.”

[Jonathan Faison @jfais20]

@princetongb I like this take

[Jonathan Faison @jfais20]

@mbrushstocks Cheers Michael- my case, was simply outside of my selection criteria and wheelhouse (highly aware where I am ignorant)

[Jonathan Faison @jfais20]

$ABVX - perhaps a relevant takeaway is that even the biotech "gods" (and I say that with a lot of respect b/c it's earned) can get it wrong (at least in the short term)

Hope that encourages a few people out there, really all of us, even if you invest in high probability setups, you'll get a few wrong from time to time and that's just part of the game

LT re Obefazimod, from current discourse sounds like the so-called cancer signal is high N noise that gets filtered out in the end - we'll see. GLTA

[Adam May @A_May_MD]

So $ABVX went from ~$180 after hours to ~$69 on the slide below, which people have (misguidedly IMO) interpreted as a cancer risk in the high dose arm.

This looks very much like noise - 2 cases (one each, a rate of 0.5%) of the 2 most common cancers in the world (breast and prostate). Zero cases in the low dose arm. NMSC is a throwaway side note and almost always age related - as they noted they *were* in this case. The only thing to adjudicate is the prostate and breast cases.

They also noted ZERO cases in the long term extension study from phase 2, which consisted of well over 100 patients and has had some patients on drug for 7+ years, ALL of them on drug for >2 years.

2 cases (again, 1 each) of the 2 most common cancers in the world among all those patients (P2+P3) over all those years. This is noise.

Let's say you *don't* think this is noise for the high dose...

Well, then it's a good thing that the low dose showed zero malignancy signal vs placebo and *still* came in with efficacy vastly above the market's expectations (39% delta vs 40% for the high dose).

The low dose with 39.3% delta and no cancer signal is right there with the (previously) highest reported efficacy drug, Rinvoq...Except, Rinvoq has a black box warning that has *5* bullet points:
-Serious infections "leading to hospitalization or death"
-Higher rate of all cause mortality "including sudden cardiovascular death"
-MALIGNANCIES "including lymphomas and lung cancers"
-Higher rate of MACE (including heart attacks and strokes)
-Thrombosis (including pulmonary embolism)

So, let's say you do think this gets a black box warning for malignancy risk (even despite all the notes above, and the fact that the low dose had zero cases of non-NMSC malignancy and was balanced with placebo on NMSC)...

...then you are looking at a WORST CASE scenario of 1 bullet on a black box warning versus *5* for Rinvoq (and the other JAK inhibitors).

The 2nd highest clinical remission delta for a non black box warning drug ever is...Entyvio at 26%....

So you have 2 JAKi with 5 black box warning "points" and remission deltas of 39.8% (Rinvoq) and 30% (Xeljanz).

Again, WORST case, $ABVX gets 1 black box warning "point" despite all the evidence that this is just noise and had 39.3% and 40.3% remission delta.

Want something without a black box? You're looking at 20-26% delta. And again, that's *if* this is actually something the FDA doesn't think is noise. You've got the 25mg dose with literally zero signal versus placebo and 7+year P2 dataset saying zero signal as well with many of those patients having been on higher than 25 mg doses.

At $70 AH this is a $6B company? Absurd from my perspective. At worst this is the most efficacious drug in the industry with a black box warning 1/5th as bad as the JAKis that do big numbers in this disease at WORST.

[Jonathan Faison @jfais20]

@RNAiAnalyst Ha usually comes after when the pricing is poor (part prior, part after re down move)

It's biotech, anything can happen (I've fallen prey to several such financing, though tickers dont come to mind immediately)

[Jonathan Faison @jfais20]

Bears reiterating (from what I've seen over the years)

If a company is desperate (knows situation is going to get worse), you'll often see a "take the money & run" type financing (raise as much as possible)

In that light, $ABVX waiting for a detailed explanation speaks volumes

[Seedy19 @seedy19tron]

To build on what @Biohazard3737 said and what has been iterated around the street.
- $abvx no raise
- no waiting for UEGW ‘26 , a detailed explanation of the pts being discussed , their medical history and explanation to why it’s not related to Obe very shortly. (Critical)

Remember previous lines of therapy matter esp in UC because of the prevalence of drugs that have malignancy risk associated with them. And $abvx recruited highly refractory pts.

Anyways, a thorough review and explanation flips the script and the story and stock will recover imho. It’s frustrating because don’t think $abvx were expecting such a reaction at all. Which explains why they couldn’t alleviate concerns in the call.

But once this is clear, we can re focus on Obe being able to do $8-10b in peak sales once the dust settles and the narrative correctly shifts in the coming days/ weeks.

Hang in there.

[Jonathan Faison @jfais20]

@SteveAytch1 @dsjdirect 🙂🤝

[Jonathan Faison @jfais20]

If you're right 70% of the time, by definition you'll be wrong 30%

Have to be more forgiving of ourselves for the latter (just part of the game)

Was key for my turnaround a few years back (finally stopped taking the Losses so personally)

Several ppl to thank for that...