Imo it makes sense to be 90-95% in on $BTC here.
If this is like last cycle this could chop very sideways before the next Levitation up. It is insanely risky to be on the sidelines here.
But we could also very easily come back to the 200w SMA (currently $67k) in the upper $60’s or low $70’s before the next Levitation up… If we’re lucky enough to go back there that’s where I’ll dribble in the last bit I have.
Tbf it could happen w/ the 200w & PLB both in the upper 60’s.
But what would be even more painful perhaps is for us to chop sideways for a lot of months here w/ the last dip coming down into the low or mid $70’s. The 200w going below PLB would setup for a potential blow off top peak which would be awesome.
What happened last cycle at this point is we Levitated up & didn’t come back down…
So many possibilities. Will be incredibly interesting to see what happens!
2015-17 was the only time in $BTC’s history where the 200w SMA (yellow) was below the Power Law Bottom (blue).
It led to INSANE price growth (~84x) AND once it crossed back above it almost EXACTLY marked the Top (vertical black).
Why do I bring this up? The 200w is now just $2k above the PLB & it’s looking like it’s setting up to cross below early next year.
I know it would be frustrating to chop sideways-ish for the next chunk of months, but imo that would lead to a very Bullish setup where we see history rhyme & make everyone’s ~$220k Base case look Bearish af LOL.
@2023bitcoiner Could totally happen. My base case is $220k & Bull case $310k. The trend has been for things to front-run when it’s “supposed” to happen.
If the 200w gets pushed below the Power Law which it looks like it’ll happen, I think that really increases the chances of a Bull scenario!
@TomHampshire10 Me too Tom! These next several months I’d actually love to chop sideways or down to help push the 200w below the PLB.
Really hoping to see that again & for history to rhyme!
$BTC ~84x’d over the 2 year period (2015-17) that the 200w SMA (yellow) was below the Power Law Bottom (blue).
That was the only time in Bitcoin’s history that occurred.
We are now only ~$2k away from that potentially happening again. 👀
NO ONE IS BULLISH ENOUGH. 🚀
The 200w SMA (yellow) has only been below the Power Law once in $BTC’s history.
What happened? Super Bullish price action. 🚀
We are currently close to it crossing below again. 👀
It’s also interesting to note that when the 200w SMA crossed back above the Power Law is when we Peaked… Perhaps we see something similar in 2028-29.
$BTC is a great buy right now with pretty limited downside.
If we are able to come back to the 200w SMA (yellow) in the upper $60’s or low $70’s, it’ll become an AMAZING ₿uy.
Not sure if we’ll get that lucky though. We could very easily chop sideways & Levitate up here too.
The most interesting question for $BTC right now is will we get a 2nd run in with the 200w SMA or no?
We did the last 2 Bear markets… But that also came after way more parabolic Bulls.
Will history repeat & we see Bitcoin hit the 200w SMA in the upper 60’s or $70’s before we kick off the Bull?… Or since this is a shallow Bear will we only see 1 run in with the 200w SMA this time? 🤔
Added 79 shares of $WGMI today.
Even if it keeps going down for a bit I am totally fine adding here.
For those that don’t know, WGMI holds stocks like $CIFR $IREN $HUT etc.
@bryan_johnson I found I needed 3 inches more w/ a men’s ball to dunk than a small ball. You might even need 4.
I think you’re now just ~6 inches away from dunking a men’s ball on 10 ft. Congrats!