BTCUSD Daily Chart: third attempt to break the second KAMA level has failed. The red dots are a new indicator I’m testing about market tension near tops and bottoms.
It looks instead a new retest of the weekly KAMA around $75k, but I’ll probably increase my long position in the coming months if there is a retest within the weekly support bands.
Tried to kill my own power law for weeks. Tested hashrate, difficulty,Metcalfe,KAMA,Kalman.All worse. Every onchain metric lags price,causality is backwards. Time is the only exogenous variable.The two-phase power law model survives because everything else is worse. Data decides.
BTCUSD/GOLD is inside the monthly KAMA bands, and my new market tension indicator is flagging the last two bars as a bottom.
Time for Bitcoin to go up or for gold to go down.
@WhaleCryptoPro KAMA levels don’t lie. I already identified my support for this year: yearly forecast at $54k, first KAMA price band at $51k, second level at $30k. The second monthly KAMA band has never been tested in Bitcoin’s entire history, so it's hard to reach 30k$ this year.
I'm replacing my bitcoin's power law model with a 2 state Kalman filter. My prev model needs a sigmoid patch to handle regime changes, instead Kalman adapts continuously with no breakpoints, no artificial shifts. The model bends to the market, not the other way around.Stay tuned.