Thinking ₿

Bitcoiner since the great debasement of 2020. Believer in innovation, believer in humanity. Investor, mainly in $BTC $MSTR $MTPLF $ASST

[Thinking ₿ @BitcoinbyHeart]

BTCTC analysis – a thread

While the BTC Treasury Company (BTC-TC) space is filled with incredibly sophisticated investors, I still observe many voices struggling to fully grasp the unique value proposition of some of these companies. $MSTR $MTPLF $ALCPB

The mathematically clear and widely accepted method to model the price of these companies essentially breaks down to this simple equation:

Price = BTC-Price x BTC/Share x mNAV

The movement of the trust's share price is therefore primarily a function of the change in these three variables.
Simply put: The price of a BTC-TC share is the current Bitcoin price multiplied by the number of Bitcoin the company holds per share, and then adjusted by the factor (mNAV) the market is willing to pay for that value.

This is the base-layer concept in order to understand the investment-thesis for a certain BTC-TC.
In the following, I’m going to express some thoughts about the 3 mentioned variables..

[Thinking ₿ @BitcoinbyHeart]

I am buying. Every single week. I dca, no matter at what prices. But right now, I'm getting more for my fiat 😍

[Thinking ₿ @BitcoinbyHeart]

Worth a read 😊

[THE BITCOIN PHARAOH @thebtcpharaoh]

The Psychology of a Bitcoiner at –50%

Bitcoin is more than 50% off its October high. $1.5 billion liquidated this week. Eleven straight days of ETF outflows. And the bitcoiners are… fine. Cheerful, even. Posting memes.

To the outside observer this looks like a cult. It’s actually something more interesting: conditioning. Let me explain the psychology, because I find it fascinating — and I’m one of the patients.

The normal investor at –50%: calls his advisor, sells at the bottom, writes an angry email, swears off the asset class, tells the story at dinner parties for a decade.

The bitcoiner at –50%: checks the price, shrugs, checks it again 45 minutes later (we’re not perfect), and buys more.

Why the difference? History, mostly.

This is the sixth major drawdown in Bitcoin’s life. The previous ones: roughly –93% in 2011, –85% in 2014–15, –84% in 2018, –77% in 2022. Every single one was declared the obituary. Every single one resolved to a new all-time high. From $128,198 to ~$60.8K is painful — but on Bitcoin’s own historical curve, a 50% drawdown barely qualifies for the leaderboard. The veterans look at this week’s chart the way a Marine looks at a paintball bruise.

And here’s the part nobody tells you: the holder base is selected for this. Every cycle, the drawdown shakes out the leveraged, the impatient, and the tourists. Whoever is left bought their coins from someone who couldn’t take the pain. Run that filter four or five times and you get today’s holder base — people for whom –13% in a week is a Tuesday. It’s not bravery. It’s Darwinism applied to conviction. The asset literally breeds its own diamond hands.

The five stages of bitcoiner grief, for reference: denial, anger, bargaining, depression, accumulation.

I own a restaurant group. If my revenue dropped 13% in a week, I’d be in the walk-in fridge interrogating the chef. When Bitcoin drops 13% in a week, I check whether the reason is a change in the asset or a change in the mood. This week it’s mood: a hawkish Fed, a record ETF outflow streak, capital chasing AI stocks. Nothing about the protocol changed. Nothing about the 21 million changed. The fundamentals didn’t have a bad week — the holders of the fast money did.

That’s the entire psychological trick, and it isn’t a trick at all: volatility is the fee, not the flaw. Bitcoin’s long-term return profile is rented out at a price, and the price is that a few times per decade it tries very hard to make you sell it to someone more patient than you. The $1.5B in liquidations this week wasn’t wealth destroyed. It was wealth transferred — from the leveraged to the liquid, from the impatient to the conditioned.

The Pharaoh’s view: the market doesn’t pay you for being right. It pays you for staying solvent and unbothered long enough for being right to matter — which is a polite way of saying it pays you for having the emotional range of a houseplant. The bitcoiner brain at –50% isn’t broken. It’s working exactly as the asset designed it to.

#Bitcoin $MSTR $MPJPY $MTPLF

[Thinking ₿ @BitcoinbyHeart]

@TheChartWitcher Every week:)

[Thinking ₿ @BitcoinbyHeart]

😂😂😂😂😂

[Yami @YamiPNL]

🚨 BREAKING: LILY PHILLIPS ACCUSES MICHAEL SAYLOR OF STEALING HER IDEA OF FUCKING 100'000 MEN IN A DAY

[Thinking ₿ @BitcoinbyHeart]

People are talking about the amazing opportunity STRC Is right now... Really, guys? At these levels, you don't buy STRC, you buy $MSTR, Bitcoin or other BTC-TCs

[CoinDesk @CoinDesk]

LATEST: More than half of all $BTC in circulation is now held at an unrealized loss, a signal that has coincided with every major bear market bottom in history.

[Thinking ₿ @BitcoinbyHeart]

Uhhhh, X is getting more bearish on Bitcoin by the day.. Loving it 😂😂 sentiment really kicks in

[Thinking ₿ @BitcoinbyHeart]

@TheCodexDelta 😂😂😂

[Thinking ₿ @BitcoinbyHeart]

$ASST right now has a amplification rate of, ~ 62%..

If Bitcoin goes down further, stock will peform incredibly poorly. If Bitcoin goes up on the other hand, this stock will explode to the upside..

At a Bitcoin price ~52% down to the Power Law, bottom 5% Quantile of the days and almost touching the 200 WMA, I personally just love this high amplification. 🔥🔥

[Jeff Walton @PunterJeff]

@mattkratter Matthew, the rating agencies value the Bitcoin at zero.

We can all agree the rating agencies should value the Bitcoin greater than zero, yes?

And btw Moody’s currently doesn’t rate Strategy.

[Thinking ₿ @BitcoinbyHeart]

@kruegi1982 Yup. Bitcoin is where I wanna be 🫡

[Thinking ₿ @BitcoinbyHeart]

@btcjvs 💯 This is where I wanna buy.

[Thinking ₿ @BitcoinbyHeart]

@Bthemoon2030 Love your conviction, my friend. Probably also going to buy a little More soon 🫡

[Thinking ₿ @BitcoinbyHeart]

@EneaDenkt "Buy, when there is blood in the streets" 🫡

Good read, my friend 😊

[Giovanni's BTC_POWER_LAW @Giovann35084111]

https://t.co/1QZrbYghUq

[Thinking ₿ @BitcoinbyHeart]

Ahh, and for anyone interested.. We're now almost at the 200 WMA... We broke it one single time in history. The rest of the time, it marked the bottom.

Thanks for your attention to this matter.

[Thinking ₿ @BitcoinbyHeart]

After the current drawdown, Bitcoin is now down over 50% to it's Power Law fair value. R²=0.962...

If you do a Quantile Regression, we're back in the lowest 5% Quantile...

Do with that information, what you want. Maybe, we go lower.... ....95% we don't

Maybe Bitcoin dies here.... ....but maybe it doesn't. I am buying here as much as I can

[The Wolf Of All Streets @scottmelker]

Remove your emotions and answer this question.

Do you think that the bitcoin high is in forever?

If you believe that bitcoin will eventually make new highs, then you currently have the opportunity to buy at a 50% discount to the recent price.

[Thinking ₿ @BitcoinbyHeart]

If current price action and the mentality on X stresses you, go out, touch grass.

The world isn't ending today, neither the future of Bitcoin:)