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Bitcoin Apes Cascais
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We’re a vibrant & curious community of expats and locals in Cascais PT living the bitcoin way. Monthly meetups.
Cascais, Portugal
Joined April 2025
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🚨 This tweet is exactly why I made this video.
https://t.co/XQBLyasHrf
If you’re in Europe, take 2 minutes and watch it.
You do not need to panic.
But you do need to pay attention.
Watch this now.
This might be one of the truest statements I’ve ever read.
Some people hate you simply because you refuse to think like they do. That’s their problem.
- You: "My stocks went up 10%."
- Government: "Congratulations! That's taxable."
- You: "But inflation was 8%. I only really gained 2%."
- Government: "We tax the full 10%."
- You: "You tax the inflation you created?"
- Government: "Capital gains are capital gains."
- You: "So you profit from debasing my money twice?"
- Government: "You're not an economist."
The ECB launched "Pontes" to settle tokenized assets in central bank money.
They're not adopting bitcoin's innovation, they're co-opting "tokenization" to tighten the grip.
The free world doesn't need a central bank's permission to transact.
I have conducted an audit of Anthropic's finances.
What I have found is so shocking that I am calling for a Congressional investigation.
Anthropic is not just seeking regulatory capture.
It has built a regulatory capture machine that cannot be turned off.
Structural financial incentives make it impossible for Anthropic -- I call it the Anthropic Network -- to turn off its own AI doom cycle.
It starts with METR.
Dario Amodei proposes "third-party evaluators" to assess the risk of Anthropic's models.
He proposes METR for this purpose.
But METR is financially dependent on the Anthropic's success -- specifically, on the explosive growth of more than $7 billion dollars in Anthropic stock.
Dustin Moskovitz invested this stock into Good Ventures Foundation, where it represents the majority of that organization's portfolio.
And GVF is the overwhelming funder of the entire Anthropic Network ecosystem.
This stock was worth $500 million early last year.
It is worth more than $7.7 billion just ~16 months later.
METR -- and all of those building a career its parent organizations -- cannot afford to disrupt that growth.
Because if Anthropic goes under, many of the organizations that fund METR go under as well.
But if Anthropic succeeds, METR and its parent organizations become more richly financed to regulate AI -- something those at METR want very much.
The "third-party evaluator" is not "third-party" at all.
The evaluator is on Anthropic's payroll.
If this were the end of it, that's bad.
But that isn't all.
The same organizations that fund METR also fund the many organizations, such as the Tarbell Center, that promote AI Doom.
The Tarbell Center publishes AI Doom articles in The Verge, Science, LA Times, The Dispatch, TIME, and others.
They are selling the problem, and then selling the solution to the problem -- from the same money pile: Anthropic's.
All of these organizations are financially dependent on the same exploding $7 billion money pile.
As Anthropic grows more and more powerful, its AI Doom Machine grows better and better financed -- louder and louder.
Meanwhile, the regulatory regime seeded in METR grows larger to solve the increasingly loud -- now hysterical -- problem of AI Doom that the Anthropic Network itself created.
From this standpoint, as Anthropic becomes more powerful, AI might be getting scarier, sure -- but the positive feedback loop also becomes more deafening -- independent of objective facts.
This itself is an objective fact.
The deafening AI Doom is part of an business model, that, as it expands, so too does the AI Doom messaging -- there is simply more money to do it.
But the problem also goes in the other direction:
If Anthropic dies, the Regulatory Regime and the AI Doom Machine are crippled or die.
Neither METR nor Tarbell nor the other organizations in the Anthropic Network can allow that to happen.
Hence, neither METR or the AI Doom Machine can be trusted to provide independent assessments of Anthropic's models or AI more broadly.
They simply are not organizations independent of Anthropic.
And Anthropic cannot detach itself from METR or Tarbell or countless other safety orgs (not shown here), either, because they drive hype for the models and the possibility of eventual regulatory capture, and Anthropic will not give that up willingly.
What's more, the people at all of these organizations are all the same ecosystem, the same community. They just shuffle between organizations.
The Anthropic Network is therefore, so long as it is successful, locked into a self-amplifying feedback loop inside an ideological monoculture.
And that feedback loop is winning.
That's what Jacob Coxon is.
China is keeping messaging tight. That is why optimism for AI is so high in China.
America has Anthropic: a massive company pushing anti-AI propaganda at a state level.
Anthropic will either create hysteria until American AI slows down and China wins, or it will create fractures throughout American society with severe political consequences.
Ironically, because of the structural financial incentives underpinning the Anthropic Network, it has become the same kind of self-amplifying virus that it fantasizes AI to become in the future -- while hiding its tracks just as carefully.
It is the mirror of the same AI virus that it hypothesizes to consume America.
Anthropic's business model, models itself after the very thing it claims to fear.
Except Anthropic's ideology infects humans, not computers.
Congress must investigate.
Evidence and Github in next post.
Then some supplementary figures.
A man too radical for the communist party designed the EU to dissolve national sovereignty.
Altiero Spinelli – The Man Who Designed the EU in Prison.
Not a metaphor. Literally. The blueprint for the European Union — its founding logic, its institutional architecture, its explicit goal of dissolving national sovereignty permanently — was written in 1941, on a tiny island off the coast of Naples, where Mussolini had imprisoned him.
The Ventotene Manifesto. Still cited. Still operative. Still running.
1. Spinelli had been a communist since seventeen – and was eventually expelled from the Communist Party for left-wing deviation. Too radical for the communists. Which tells you something about the man. In his prison years he reached the conclusion that the nation-state was the root cause of war, fascism, and every political catastrophe of the century. It had to go. Not reformed. Not constrained. Abolished – permanently, irreversibly, through the construction of a supranational federal authority with supreme power over member states.
2. The Ventotene Manifesto was written in 1941 on paper smuggled into the prison in cigarette packets. Its argument was simple and total: nation-states must be replaced by a federal European government. The economic integration would come first – because economic interdependence would make political separation prohibitively costly. Then the institutions. Then the law. Then the currency. Each step irreversible by design. The nation-state dissolved not by force but by process – incrementally, bureaucratically, until the point of no return had been passed without anyone noticing when.
3. This is the architecture of the European Union. Not a conspiracy theory – the founding document. Spinelli served as a member of the European Parliament and drafted the 1984 Spinelli Report – the direct precursor to the Maastricht Treaty. Today the European Parliament sits in the Spinelli Building in Brussels. The Spinelli Group inside it advances his program explicitly, in his name, without apology. The man who wrote the blueprint in a prison cell in 1941 is the acknowledged intellectual father of the institution that governs 450 million people. This is not hidden. It is simply not taught.
4. The mechanism was specifically intended to be irreversible. Each treaty expands competence and makes contraction impossible. The Commission is unelected and insulated from democratic pressure to reverse course. Spinelli understood, from his Marxist formation, that the correct way to make a revolutionary change permanent is to make the cost of reversing it higher than the cost of accepting it. Brexit took fifty years of membership to become possible – and was still nearly impossible to execute.
5. Poland is the most precise illustration. A nation that disappeared from the map for a century and fought back through language, family, and refusal to be absorbed – now a member of an institution designed to make national sovereignty obsolete. The Brussels directive that overrides the Polish parliament is Spinelli’s program, running as designed. The Poland that survived partition by Prussia, Russia, and Austria is now navigating a project designed to produce the same outcome through consent rather than conquest. Spinelli would have considered this progress.
6. He died in 1986, before Maastricht, before the euro, before the completed project. Like Gramsci, he did not need to see it. The manifesto written on cigarette-packet paper on a prison island became the founding document of the most powerful supranational institution in history – one that 450 million people live inside without knowing who designed it, when, where, or why.
7. Now you know. The question worth asking is not whether the EU is good or bad. It is whether you would have consented to Spinelli’s program if asked directly – whether you wanted the nation-state abolished permanently by incremental bureaucratic process, designed from the start to be irreversible. Nobody was asked. That too was part of the design.
Portugal is the country that had the largest opportunity of the last twenty years: it attracted essentially la crème de la crème of tech. Incredible place. It would have had all the conditions to be the #1 place in Europe for many if only it had been able to offer a reliable system to incorporate and run companies. Unfortunately, it made doing business close to impossible and uncertain. While allowing mass migration to arrive with no prior authorization (tot. 1.5M, 14% of the population), it decided to cut the NHR and replace it with the IFICI regime as implemented today: complex, based on express authorization and, contrary to its original intention, in reality usable only by later-stage entrepreneurs.
With a mildly efficient system, or an EU Inc. and/or a less convoluted IFICI, the stretch Lisbon–Cascais would be the European Bay Area, with thousands of new companies building the future from Portugal. This would have meant, among others, allowing thousands of young Portuguese to thrive in their own country instead of leaving for London or anywhere else to make it.
Unfortunately it won't be the case. In terms of real estate, I might be completely wrong: but it will keep rising because of very weird supply-demand logic, against all odds and very reasonable predictions. Golden visa has never been the issue behind real estate price spikes. Chances are Portugal is going to be like Ryanair: everyone frustrated, but will keep “selling tickets”.
Holy shit. This is too good. 🤣
Dylan’s rant as promised.
This was 15 years ago in 2011 after the GFC.
He basically nailed everything that’s coming home to roost today:
@thebtcfrontierX @xapa03 @saylor @Stumitchell60 @Giovann35084111 @LawrenceLepard @LeomathHeart @DocumentingBTC @jvisserlabs @jackmallers @APompliano Don’t the people who are waiting for 40 K in October actually believe in the four year cycle but they’re just measuring it from last October?
🔥 THEY ARE GOING TO PRINT FIAT MONEY FOREVER - ESCAPE THE DEBT PLANTATION AND BUY BITCOIN 🔥
America has $40 TRILLION in federal debt.
The national balance sheet looks like a CVS receipt printed by Satan.
And somehow YOU are expected to fix this by skipping guacamole.
You wake up at 6:12 AM, microwave eggs in a plastic bowl, sit in traffic behind a Nissan Altima with three different-colored doors, and spend nine hours answering emails titled “CIRCLE BACK - QUICK SYNC.”
Government takes its cut before the money reaches your checking account. Then the county assesses your house. The state visits the gas pump. Sales tax waits at Target. Insurance wants tribute.
Your grocery cart now costs what a used Honda Civic did during the Bush administration.
At the end of this financial Bataan Death March, some personal-finance podcaster with veneers tells you the problem is your $6 coffee.
Washington owes $40,000,000,000,000.
You bought a latte.
CLEARLY we found the suspect.
This whole system is a gigantic extraction machine.
Your finite human life gets converted into dollars.
Those dollars enter an economy where a room full of people with economics degrees can decide the solution to excessive debt involves issuing additional debt.
That sentence should cause livestock to stampede.
Imagine discovering your septic tank is overflowing and solving the crisis by financing a second septic tank.
That is sovereign debt management.
Except CNBC calls it “Treasury market functionality.”
Every fiscal emergency somehow ends exactly the same way. There is a gigantic number, emergency podium, concerned eyebrows, then fresh liquidity.
The government spends money it lacks.
Eventually the entire planet owns an IOU backed by the future tax receipts of some bearded woman manning a Burger King drive-thru.
You are LIVESTOCK with direct deposit.
But you like it because the barn has Wi-Fi.
Your feed trough accepts Apple Pay.
HR gave you a mindfulness webinar.
And the farmer just refinanced the farm again.
Even saving requires a second occupation.
Grandpa put dollars in the bank and went fishing.
You need equities, duration exposure, real estate, commodities, tax-loss harvesting, geopolitical hedges, a Roth IRA, three podcasts about Federal Reserve policy, and an autistic fascination with the 10-year yield merely to preserve the purchasing power of work you already fucking completed.
Every dental hygienist in America must become Stanley Druckenmiller.
Then Bitcoin arrives. 21 million coins.
That number possesses a quality Washington finds deeply offensive.
Congress cannot shut down for three days, reopen at midnight, and discover the protocol now contains 28 million coins plus a refundable tax credit for first-time miners.
The White House cannot appoint a blue-ribbon Bitcoin Supply Commission chaired by seven defense contractors and the CEO of Deloitte.
Human beings finally created money that responds to political bullshit with the emotional warmth of a parking meter.
This is why Bitcoin maximalism becomes increasingly difficult to unsee.
One side has a hard cap enforced by mathematics.
The other side has $40 trillion of debt, an aging population, permanent deficits, trillion-dollar interest expense territory, endless entitlement promises, military commitments across the globe, and approximately 900 elected officials whose reelection strategy depends on giving people things.
Take a wild guess which monetary unit gets diluted.
Your labor is scarce. Your time is scarce.
Your life is TERRIFYINGLY scarce.
Trading those things forever for monetary units manufactured according to political necessity is financial taxidermy.
Turn the surplus into something they cannot reproduce.
Stack sats. Self-custody. Raise your family.
Build useful things. Grill a steak.
Watch Washington add another comma to the debt clock while a 74-year-old senator who has owned municipal bonds since Watergate explains fiscal responsibility on television.
ESCAPE THE DEBT PLANTATION.
BUY THE MONEY THE MONEY PRINTER CAN’T PRINT.
⚡️The real signal is that fiat currencies rarely need to disappear in order to fail.
They can survive for centuries while quietly liquidating the purchasing power of everyone holding them.
That is what the chart actually shows.
The pound, dollar, franc, yen, rupee, and other surviving units still circulate because the states behind them remained powerful enough to manage the decline.
Their names survived. Their real content did not.
This is the hidden function of fiat money. It absorbs political promises that cannot be paid honestly.
Governments promise pensions, wars, welfare, bailouts, industrial policy, defense, healthcare, tax cuts, and perpetual growth. When the productive base cannot support the total claim, the currency becomes the adjustment mechanism. Nominal obligations remain intact while their real value is reduced through inflation, suppressed yields, financial repression, taxation, and repeated monetary expansion.
That is why the most successful fiat systems often look stable. They avoid dramatic collapse by defaulting slowly.
The citizen still receives the salary.
The retiree still receives the check.
The bondholder still receives the principal.
The unit still has the same name.
The purchasing power inside every payment has been hollowed out.
That is the deeper architecture.
Currency death is usually understood too theatrically. People imagine wheelbarrows of cash, bank runs, and official replacement. The more advanced form is quieter. The state preserves confidence in the symbol while extracting value through the denominator.
The strongest governments can run this process for generations because demand for their currency remains high. Reserve status, taxation, military power, capital markets, legal systems, and collateral demand keep the unit alive long after its measuring integrity has deteriorated.
Weak states lose the currency quickly.
Strong states monetize the decay slowly.
That is why the dollar can remain dominant while losing purchasing power. Global usage and domestic soundness are separate variables. The world may keep using dollars because the alternatives are less liquid, less open, less trusted, or more politically controlled. That gives the United States more room to dilute before confidence breaks.
Gold and Bitcoin matter because they challenge the state’s control over the measuring stick.
Gold is the old exit from political liabilities.
Bitcoin is the new exit from discretionary supply.
Neither requires the dollar to vanish. They only require enough people to recognize that nominal continuity is not monetary integrity.
The real lesson from the chart is this:
Fiat money does not usually die when the currency disappears.
It dies each time yesterday’s savings purchase less of tomorrow’s life.
Aaaand…. Hacked! 😅🙌🏻
Ursula von der Leyen has confirmed that everyone in the EU will need to use the EU's app for identity authentication before being able to access or post on social media websites.
🇪🇺 As an expert in online child safety, I am here to expose the misinformation and misdirection in von der Leyen's statements.
Today von der Leyen said:
"This is not about whether children can access social media, it is about whether social media can access our children".
💡The first part is true. This isn't about children. It's about surveillance and combating political dissent. A state that can't control its own citizens is more dangerous than a state rife with criminals. The second part is a PR soundbite that politicians are using like a campaign slogan straight out of 1984.
🇪🇺"The question is no longer if children face risks online, but what can we do to give children a safer start online".
💡No. You can't give children a "safer start" online any more than you can offline. In the offline world, the government doesn't enforce curfews or ban children from entering liquor stores, bars or restaurants. That's a parent's responsibility. The digital world should be no different.
🇪🇺"The age verification app is one of the tools to get it done".
💡This is a contradiction because she also said "It won't be foolproof".
🇪🇺"It's easy to use, it is privacy preserving and it is open source".
💡The app was compromised as soon as it was released. "Privacy-preserving" age verification is an oxymoron. You can't verify a person's age without verifying their identity. Where or how that age is shared afterwards is irrelevant.
🇪🇺"This is basically about putting back the power into the hands of parents".
💡More from 1984. The EU is doing the opposite. Parents are having their authority stripped by politicians who think they know better. Many parents are capable and unaffected by peer pressure, and they know how to use parental controls to block any app classified as 13+. Some teens are safe, their parents trust them, and the state has no business overruling that trust.
🇪🇺"We don't give our children keys to the car before they have their licence"
💡Comparing an app to a car is a false equivalence used to justify mass surveillance. Governments don't decide when a young person is ready for car keys, guardians do.
💡Forcing every adult and child into a biometric checkpoint just to use an app or website is not licensing drivers. It's the state seizing everyone's keys, locking the garage, and forcing every driver to ask a private company for permission to take a drive.
💡 This is a gross, unethical overreach that strips authority from parents while imposing state sanctioned identity verification on every adult who doesn't even have a child.
💡Additionally, people who pass a test, obtain a licence and drive a car aren't forced to use an app to constantly authenticate their suitability to drive.
🇪🇺"We do not let them buy alcohol until they are legally allowed"
💡False equivalence. We don't force every person to show ID at a shopping mall entrance just because a few people might buy alcohol with a meal at a restaurant. Some parents are okay with their 12 year-old going to the mall with friends while others aren't. Either way, it's their choice. Whatever irresponsible decisions some parents might make, every adult in the country shouldn't be forced to pay the price.
🇪🇺"It won't be foolproof"
💡This is all the proof we need to show that the EU and every government know that banning social media for teens won't protect them. When pressed by journalists about VPNs being used to circumvent a ban, politicians always state the ban isn't a silver bullet and will take time. The Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan went as far as to say "we know it's not the solution".
💡Either age verification works, or it doesn't. As a technical expert in this space, I can tell you there are no additional steps to take and no progress to be made. Either the approach does what it is supposed to do, or it's not fit for purpose. If they claim a bulletproof solution is coming, it can only mean one thing. They intend to ban or restrict VPNs to people who verify their identity.
🇪🇺"It will take time to invite the cultural change that is already taking shape in our society, just as it took time to outlaw drink driving, just as it took time to use seatbelts in the cars. Great change never happens overnight, but when it comes to our safety it is always worth it".
💡Comparing a social media ban and age verification to seatbelts is a completely broken analogy. Seatbelts are a safety feature that protects children while allowing them to travel in a car. A ban doesn't give kids a seatbelt. It kicks them out of the car entirely.
💡Instead of supporting parents who want to guide their own children through the digital world, this heavy-handed law strips away parental authority by banning the apps and websites that many parents are perfectly fine with and actively monitor.
💡Furthermore, enforcing these bans requires biometric age verification, which means forcing millions of adult citizens to scan their IDs, faces or credit cards just to browse the internet. That isn't a common-sense traffic law.
💡It's a digital checkpoint on every street. True safety means teaching kids how to navigate the digital world safely with real guardrails and parental guidance, not burning down digital spaces for everyone under the guise of protection.
🇪🇺☠️ The EU wants to ban teens from social media so every person is forced to verify their identity before they can read, share or post anything online. In their words, this is to protect children from dangerous content.
🇪🇺☠️ The EU wants to enforce "Chat Control" so every app has to monitor everything people say privately inside it, including apps with end-to-end encryption. In their words, this is to protect children from dangerous criminals.
💡Where this ends
🇪🇺 "If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever".
George Orwell, 1984.
@WalkerAmerica Exactly. Unfortunately most seem to be following the motto "Stay compliant and carry on"
Chat control and a CBDC all in one week — well done, Europe!
Now all the EU needs is an “under 16 social media ban” like the UK/Australia (AKA “ID everyone and de-anonymize the internet under the guise of protecting the children”) and they’ll have the totalitarian trifecta:
1. No private free speech (chat control)
2. No public free speech (under 16 ban)
3. No freedom to transact (CBDC)
Put all these together and the EU totalitarians will be able to immediately freeze your access to the financial system whenever you share a hurty words meme publicly or privately.
Your private communications are no longer private, so you cannot speak freely privately.
Your public communications are tied to your real-word identify, so you cannot speak freely publicly.
All of this is tied to your access to the financial system, which can be severed instantly while you wait for the Thought Police to arrive at your door and take you to jail for noticing.
Lagarde claims they are not getting rid of cash, but I promise you it will be gone before you know it under the guise of "protect kids" or "stop terrorism" / "right wing extremism"
Burger King was one of the few fast food chains who refused to disclose their ingredients
They just quietly released them this year and it’s so much worse than anyone could have imagined
- 120 ingredients in The Royal Chicken Spicy Sandwich
- 85 ingredients in their Whopper
The Whopper’s 85 different ingredients include multiple seed oils, processed sugars, preservatives
In the bun, you have things like potassium iodate, banned in Europe, UK, Australia, New Zealand. Also in the bun, you have mono and diglycerides, which are a preservative and dough conditioner which cause gut inflammation
The Royal Chicken Spicy Sandwich’s 120 ingredients include
- Multiple dough conditioners, which can lead to gut issues
- Silicone dioxide, the nanoparticles of which may be inflammatory in the human gut, multiple seed oils
- A piece of processed chicken coated in flour and food starches, battered, fried in rancid oxidized seed oils
- It contains antifoaming agents that are also found in Silly Putty, like dimethylpolysiloxane
- 3 different types of sauces, one of which has over 25 different ingredients.
“Burger King might just be the worst fast-food restaurant I've ever seen”
This is not food. It’s a chemical science experiment engineered to be as addictive as possible
No sandwich should ever include 85-120 ingredients
This is Roberta Metsola, the sneaky President of the EU Parliament.
She is responsible for the shenanigans surrounding the 3rd vote on the exception clause for chat control.
She broke several EU rules, like “there must not be an emergency vote on an issue that is being voted on the second or third time.”
Setting the vote on the day when most MEPs return home is another level of trickery.
She lines up alongside Mrs Leyen and Kallas in the phalanx of Europe's destroyers.
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