Bitcoiner ∞/21M

#Bitcoin is hope.
#Bitcoin ∞/21M.
No financial advice here.

[Jesse Olson @JesseOlson]

$BTC reaching $23,979 was not on my 2026 bingo card.

In my opinion, this only happens if the overall stock market crashes 50%+. (still at all-time highs)

I don't believe Bitcoin goes to zero and I will be looking to buy the right dip whenever the reversal happens.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

On the Magic Bands V2, Bitcoin is still only halfway to the aggressive cycle bottom target of 29k.

Price has broken below level 2 (blue), which has happened at various points in other bear markets. The common thread is a move to Level 1 (yellow) and eventually the cycle bottom band (red).

I'm not saying that Bitcoin must go to the cycle bottom band this bear market (although it is possible).... but to have excellent consistency across all cycles and then bottom in the middle of the bands would not make sense.

I believe data is getting progressively more challenging to interpret. This has already been true for the past two cycle tops and the last cycle bottom.

What looks like an obvious weekly bullish divergence on RSI like November 2022 may prove to be just a red herring.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

Gold looks right on track to start its 4 - 5 year bear market according to the 10/4 Cycles Theory.

It had a perfect 10.5-year bull market with a parabolic top in January of this year.

Gold and other precious metals are set up to start recovering just before the predicted recession period of the Quartcent Cycles Theory (2034 - 2041).

For now, precious metals should take a back seat. But in 5 years from now... it could be a good pivot during the 10 year market pause.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

The bear flag has now broken to the downside!

That means it's time to start looking at lower prices that typically come very quickly after that happens.

The next support on the Volume Profile is 38k - 43k. This is also the cycle bottom target of Realized Market Cap and the Golden Ratio Multiplier.

But... the volume there is relatively thin, much more so than our current price. The next strongest block after that is 25k - 30k. This is the bottom target of the Magic Bands and Bear Bands.

42k seems very likely as the next major stop, which will probably take some time.

Expect that people will scream that the bottom is in on the next drop, as they have for the past two. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. The Halving Cycles Theory, which remains perfectly on track, says not until the end of the year.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

No new lows yet, and already the bottom calls are starting to pop up.

If you're wondering about cycle bottom data... no major updates to report. Like SOPR, which is still in bear market development mode. Waiting on a move to high loss.

Even from people who are bearish, they appear to have a very optimistic perspective of how this will play out. A soft fall in the short term, followed by powerful new ATHs into next year.

I think what might surprise a lot of people is how low price can get. Sub 30k is not off the table.

For the cycle to stay on track (and of course I believe it will), a curveball is coming.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

The cycle bottom target for the Golden Ratio Multiplier is dropping, currently at about 36k.

We're watching Level 1, which has been very accurate for previous cycle bottoms.

This is slightly below the Realized Market Cap bottom of 42.5k. I think the real answer is probably something in between.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

Introducing... my cycles theory for Gold, which I am calling the "10/4 Cycles Theory".

It says that Gold operates around a 15 year cycle. The bull market takes 10 - 11 years, while the bear market takes 4 - 5 years.

In February of this year, the bull market would have ended, which begins the 4 - year bearish phase of the cycle, set to last until 2030 or 2031.

The cycles have incredible accuracy when viewed this way, with one interesting example of a failed bull market period between 1985 and 1996. You can see where the two cycle top events (red dots) landed and fell flat during that time in their appropriate places.

The cycle begins with one bottom event and is followed by two top events, which are the major points. These come during precise 1.5-year windows in the peaks and troughs of the sine wave cycle.

This is my latest major cycles theory to join the Halving Cycles Theory (Bitcoin) and the Quartercent Cycles Theory (S&P 500). All of which remain accurate to the current date.

For the 10/4 Theory to be successful in the near term, the bull market must end by July 2027 at the latest, which is at the end of the 10 - 11 year window. It seems highly probable, though, that February 2026 fulfilled this.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

Current bear market stats:

Highest drawdown: 52%
Length of correction: 186 days

Average bear market stats:

Highest drawdown: 82%
Length of correction: 391 Days

The absolute most consistent thing about Bitcoin has been the Halving Cycle, almost as consistent as the people who say it's going to change/break at every high and low.

Returns have diminished each cycle; it is also assumed that drawdowns will diminish each cycle too, but I don't think that's the case.

I see plenty of takes on X claiming that the cycle bottom is in here, again defying the cycle and calling for a low 25% less than the chushiest bear market in half the time.

Like last cycle, I firmly believe you will start to see a lot of "firsts" or "Bitcoin has never done this before! It's over!" Like breaking below the 200 Week MA, or going below previous ATHs in 2022.

Different, but not different.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

The S&P 500 has dropped by about 10% from its most recent high, so how does that fit into the cycle?

The last important high was the 15-year high in December 2024, and the next one is not due until 2028. Local highs and corrections (like now) are still possible between the big events, but usually don't amount to much.

This tells me that the last high in February is probably not very important overall. The next recession/pause period is still not due for another 8 years (2034) and is set to last about 9 years.

[Crypto Crew University @CryptoCrewU]

3 years ago I called the bottom.

This time… I’m not calling it.

Because it’s never about one chart or one moment.

It’s about having a framework to act when it matters.

https://t.co/5M5BV7IVcV ⬅️

[Alex Mason 👁△ @AlexMasonCrypto]

Everything is going according to the plan.

Nothing here is random.

Bitcoin cycle bottom will look exactly like this.

Remember, I was the only one publicly calling the exact bottom at $16,000 three years ago and the top at $126,000 in October.

If you missed those calls, don’t worry. I’ll call the next one too.

Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

A bounce after the first low of the bear market makes sense.

So far, everything is right where it should be. It's the exact time frame expected according to the Halving Cycles Theory, and price at the first low band of the Bear Bands.

The next important low isn't due for at least another 5 months, and the cycle bottom, at the earliest, 3 months after that.

The second low band is at 44.5k, and the cycle bottom band is at 28.5k.

This bear market still has plenty of time to go and a lot of ground to cover!

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

So far, both of the local lows have respected the heaviest blocks of volume on the volume profile. The latest obviously being 62k - 71k.

The interesting part is how thin the volume is between 62k and 30k...

The next big block of volume is up to a 40k drop from here at 25k - 30k.

25k - 30k also lines up roughly with the cycle bottom band of the magic bands V2, the bear bands, and level 1 of the golden ratio multiplier.

Needless to say that price range is on my radar for a cycle bottom in the Halvings Cycles Theory time frame of November 2026 - January 2027.

But, when it comes to price, it's important to be flexible!

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

The last big move was a precise hit of level 2 on the Magic Bands at 65k.

And, in the exact time frame you'd expect. Dates for previous level 2 in bear markets:

February 26th, 2014
February 3rd, 2018
January 23rd, 2022
February 7th, 2026

The cycle bottom band, which has been incredibly accurate, sits at 28.2k and is slightly increasing.

Lots of waiting to do!

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

Logarithmic MVRV...

No cycle bottom yet here!

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

There are some dense liquidity pockets that line up close with the Bear Bands.

Next areas of interest:

First Low: 69 - 74k

Cycle Bottom: 27 - 32k

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

3 important levels for Bitcoin during the bear market:

1. 62k
2. 43k
3. 27k

Typically, the first low band is reached early in the bear market year, the second low mid to late, and the cycle bottom at the year's end.

[RWB_American @RWB_American]

Life on an oil rig in the middle of the Gulf of America is not a normal life.
Here are a few examples.

[Bitcoiner ∞/21M @Bitcoiner21M]

@icebergfinanza pensi che i tassi torneranno a 0 in in europa nel 2026?

[symbiote @cryptosymbiiote]

That's exactly why I sold all my $BTC at $102K

Yep, maybe I did it a bit early

But I didn't risk 5x profit for an extra 20% that's what I am telling everytime and that's exactly how many newcomers get REKT

If you're trying to catch the maximum exact top, you're already lost

Newbies think: (rn it's 4800 ETH for example): "will close it on $5k"

But the right thing to do was closing it right from $4k DCA, selling it all the way up, taking profits

Now I believe in only 2 things - biggest altseason ever and buying back $BTC at $40k

I predicted the $BTC top, now I'll predict this one

Hope you will listen