Bjoern Griesbach

@Allianz head of macro and capital market research. Views are my own.

[Bjoern Griesbach @BjoernGriesbach]

#macro We released our Economic outlook 2026-27: The Fog of War | Allianz: Global growth: 2.6% in 2026 (-0.4pp 2025). Matches also simple global oil-gdp correlation, assuming 3m half oil production from ME & 700mb release of reserves (ie. another 300 needed)

[Bjoern Griesbach @BjoernGriesbach]

Why a prolonged Hormuz closure is unlikely: the macro cost. Without substitution (SPR releases or higher output elsewhere), a 3-month disruption (~20mbpd) would cut global oil supply ~4.7% annualized—historically consistent with a global recession (~-0.6% GDP). #IranWar

[Bjoern Griesbach @BjoernGriesbach]

#iran #us #geopolitics #risks #economics

[Bjoern Griesbach @BjoernGriesbach]

The #Gold saga continues (2026 ytd performance of various assets in %).

[Bjoern Griesbach @BjoernGriesbach]

Again, de-dollarization signs popping up with interest rate differentials not explaining the USD weakness. #usd #EURUSD

[Bjoern Griesbach @BjoernGriesbach]

One thing to keep in mind on #Japan spillovers to the rest of the world: Japan has become a smaller global player over time e.g the share of US #treasuries held by Japan has dropped from a peak of 18% in 2004 to 4% now. Not because Japan sold but because the US got so much debt.

[Bjoern Griesbach @BjoernGriesbach]

Despite all the #AI hype, the Magnificient7 (+23% ytd) have underperformed, EM and European stocks (+35% ytd in USD), defense stocks and Gold (+62% ytd)

[Bjoern Griesbach @BjoernGriesbach]

The #Fed is starting #QE again... well, it's just bills and liquidity management, but still: It reduced the amount of government debt private investors will have to digest. And with that move, it is now an outlier among other CBs.

[Bjoern Griesbach @BjoernGriesbach]

And again. #overpopulation remains a tabu at #cop despite 70mio more people living on this planet since last year (=French population). All of them want to eat, have a home, go on holiday. Rightfully so. But that will need land, resources, energy, food.

[Dag Lindgren @Dag_Lindgren]

@PopnMatters The concept overpopulation is tabu e.g. at these UN COP meetings. Russia seems pushing this praxis an extreme step further...

[Jet Morgan 🧢 @vadabac340]

@TheGreenParty When the first COP took place the population of Earth was 5.6bn. It is now 8.1bn - an increase of 45% in a generation.

2,500,000,000 more people needing food, water, power and somewhere to dispose of their rubbish.

Overpopulation is the main issue we need to address.

[Bjoern Griesbach @BjoernGriesbach]

What do you think is more expensive? Renovating the 1967 #Bundesbank building in Germany (left) or building the new JPM headquarter in Manhattan (right). The answer is here: Kommentar: https://t.co/1ZloYSc7vo (Reality check #Germany)

[Bjoern Griesbach @BjoernGriesbach]

"Sadfact" on top: 1.2% weniger netto gilt nur für Einkommen bis zu 96.600 pro Jahr. Wenn man z.B. 180.000 im Jahr verdient erhöhen sich die Abgaben nur um 0.6% (Beitragsbemessungsgrenze)

https://t.co/MVzPFPjPwe

[Bjoern Griesbach @BjoernGriesbach]

3.7% mehr für Rentner, 1.2% weniger für Arbeitnehmer (letzteres bedeutet bis zu 97 Euro weniger Netto pro Monat). Scheint aber kaum zu interessieren (auf Platz 7 bei Tagesschau) -> Rentenversicherung erwartet "extremen" Anstieg des Rentenbeitrags | https://t.co/rW4DdSTcuR

[Bjoern Griesbach @BjoernGriesbach]

3.7% mehr für Rentner, 1.2% weniger für Arbeitnehmer (letzteres bedeutet bis zu 97 Euro weniger Netto pro Monat). Scheint aber kaum zu interessieren (auf Platz 7 bei Tagesschau) -> Rentenversicherung erwartet "extremen" Anstieg des Rentenbeitrags | https://t.co/rW4DdSTcuR

[Bjoern Griesbach @BjoernGriesbach]

Looking at output gaps, Germany is again in "sick-man" territory, this and more in this week's Allianz research what-to-watch:2025_10_31_what_to_watch.pdf #GDP #Europe #ECB #Economics

[Bjoern Griesbach @BjoernGriesbach]

Forget the debate about high renovation costs at the #Fed. Ironically, the #Bundesbank, famed for its strict savings culture, has managed top it by far. It also raises big questions about the adequacy of cultural heritage management in Germany https://t.co/Md87arJgmD

[Bjoern Griesbach @BjoernGriesbach]

This is how net-net government bond supply currently looks like after the BOE reduced the QT pace to 70bn today. But Japan looks worse and explains the strongest sell-off in rates ytd in comparison to the rest. Excited about the #BOJ meeting tomorrow...

[Bjoern Griesbach @BjoernGriesbach]

You wonder why we see a bear steepening in Europe and bull steepening in the US ytd? Transatlantic #QT divide might be part of the answer after the Fed has recently lowered govy roll-off to 5bn USD a month, compared to around 40bn EUR by the ECB. #markets #rates #ECB #BOE #FED

[Bjoern Griesbach @BjoernGriesbach]

You wonder why we see a bear steepening in Europe and bull steepening in the US ytd? Transatlantic #QT divide might be part of the answer after the Fed has recently lowered govy roll-off to 5bn USD a month, compared to around 40bn EUR by the ECB. #markets #rates #ECB #BOE #FED

[Bjoern Griesbach @BjoernGriesbach]

How much are #markets pricing in White House intervention on the #Fed? Looking at longer-term #inflation expectations (10y, 5y5y), they already do. Unlike Liberation Day tariffs (short-term inflationary), eroding CB independence is long-term inflationary.

[Bjoern Griesbach @BjoernGriesbach]

Our #ECB preview is out: Like everyone we see no cut in July but unlike everyone we see more cuts to come amid disinflation, weak core EZ growth, tariff headwinds, strong euro and rising long-term yields (#tapering coming soon?) 2025_07_18_what_to_watch.pdf

[Bjoern Griesbach @BjoernGriesbach]

Check out our Mid-Year Economic Outlook. Enjoy #EconomicOutlook #CapitalMarkets #Geopolitics #Trade including our thoughts on #EURUSD Allianz | Summertime Sadness - Mid-year economic outlook 2025-26